6 April 2007 - Selling Low

Friday, April 06 2007 @ 06:00 AM EDT

Contributed by: Pistol

The Jays were colded out yesterday.

The Jays news for the day is the trade of Fransisco Rosario to the Phillies for $100k. At one time Rosario was a highly regarded prospect. After TJ surgery his value obviously dropped, but had a really strong end to the end of the 2004 season, placing him 4th on Jordan Furlong's top Jays prospect list and raising his value. So the Jays 'sold low' on Rosario yesterday.

There's been several Jays trades under Ricciardi where he's 'sold low':

Josh Phelps - Had a huge season after being called up in 2002 hitting .309/.362/.562. While his 2003 wasn't great, he still hit .268/.358/.470. Then he fell apart in 2004 hitting .237/.296/.417 for the Jays before being traded for Eric Crozier.
Felipe Lopez - Lopez was a 1st rounder who moved through the system quickly, making it to Toronto at 21. He played 85 games for the Jays in 2002 "hitting" .227/.287/.387. He was traded following that season in a 4 way deal where the Jays received Jason Arnold who fizzled out in the minors.
Adam Peterson - Peterson was progressing nicely through the minors making it to AA with success a year after being drafted. He was considered a potential closer, or a strong setup man. The next year (2004) the Jays called up Peterson to Toronto (skipping Syracuse), he got bombed, was sent to Syracuse and never recovered. He was traded following the 2004 season. (Granted, it was a successful trade, but he was traded at his low value point in the organization)
Chad Gaudin - Picked up for Kevin Cash, Gaudin ran out of options and was traded for Dustin Majewski. Gaudin had a good year in relief last season (despite a lot of walks) and started for the A's last night.
Gabe Gross - From a 1st rounder and a potential solid-above average OF prospect to being a throw-in in the Overbay deal.
Corey Koskie - The Jays signed Koskie only to send him to Milwaukee a year later in a salary dump.
Eric Hinske - From rookie of the year in 2002 to being traded for salary relief of $2.8 million.

So who has been traded when their value was high?

Bobby Kielty - He didn't play terribly well with the Jays, but had a good track record with the Twins prior to his stint in Toronto and was traded for Lilly.
Zach Jackson - He progressed through the minors quickly, making it to AAA a year following the draft. He was included as a key part of the Overbay trade. His stock has since dropped.
Orlando Hudson - Traded in the Troy Glaus deal after continuing to improve. He had his best year last season.
David Bush - The Jays seemed to sour a bit on Bush, but he was still a solid starter with low service time. The Brewers happily accepted him in the Overbay trade and he was an above average starter last year.

Note - this isn't an evaluation of the Jays trades, just a look at what players have been traded when their value is at a low point compared to players traded when their value was at a high point.

Players are a lot like stocks. Their value goes up and down based on a lot of different factors. The key to maximizing value is knowing when to hold on to them and when to let them go. And often when you hold them you're willing to ride it out a little longer than you should.

Gus Chacin takes the mound for the Jays today against the Devil Rays. James Shields starts for the Devil Rays. This will be the first of 10 straight days of games for the Jays - and barring a significant event they'll all be played. You have to love a dome in April. Well, maybe not in Tampa.

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