Yankees Look For 10th Straight Flag

Wednesday, March 28 2007 @ 07:00 AM EDT

Contributed by: Mick Doherty

Over the past three years, the pre-season New York Yankees previews have all forecast, incorrectly in each case as it turned out, a Bronx Bomber World Series trip.

Let's step back a little and ask a regular-season-level question of this ever-changing pinstriped ballclub. How do they stack up against the rest of the A.L. East? Getting into the playoffs is really the whole point of the regular season, and as the Red Sox, and more recently the seemingly overmatched Cardinals, have shown, once there, anything can happen.

So, do the Yankees "get there" in 2007 to see what happens?

Now, let's be clear ... we're going to do this using a completely unscientific and statistically unsupportable "methodology." Quite simply, I will list the projected starters for each AL East team at each roster position, then rank them according to my own perception of who I would most want on the team if I was organizing the roster. This is, of course, an open invitation for disagreement by the rest of you Bauxites out there, so let me start by providing a couple of caveats ...

First, the list of who will be doing what for each club is taken off the latest "Depth Chart" for each team provided by MLB.com. These charts are updated almost daily, so it is possible there have been changes by the time you read this. Barring a major injury or trade, I doubt very much any such moves would affect my rankings, but anyway, that's out there.

Second, speaking of injuries, minor setbacks are not considered here when providing rankings for the full season. Yes, yes, Chien-Ming Wang will start the season on the disabled list, and yes, he is still listed here as the Yankees #1 starter. Because, well, that's what he is.

Anyway, on to the position-by-position (or in the case of bullpens and benches and rotations, unit-by-unit) breakdowns and rankings ... Since this is the Yankees preview, the NYY player(s) are listed in ALL CAPS.

CATCHER

  1. BOS: Jason Varitek
  2. NYY: JORGE POSADA
  3. TOR: Gregg Zaun
  4. BAL: Ramon Hernandez
  5. TB: Dioner Navarro
From Behind the Plate ... I have finally come around and acknowledge that Varitek means more to the Red Sox than Posada does to the Yankees, but they might more appropriately be listed as 1 and 1A. Navarro has to prove something after being traded forty-six times in a few months, while Zaun and Hernandez are both capable backstops -- either could end up on the AL All-Star team, but frankly, either could also drop to the end of his team's bench by the All-Star break.

First Base
  1. TOR: Lyle Overbay
  2. BOS: Kevin Youkilis
  3. TB: Ty Wigginton
  4. BAL: Kevin Millar
  5. NYY: DOUG MIENTKIEWICZ
If at First ... Okay, let's finish that phrase for NYY -- "If at first you don't succeed ..." Seriously, all-alphabet Doug Mientkiewicz in the shoes of Gehrig, Skowron, Chambliss and Mattingly? And yes, that's right, the Blue Jays currently have the best first baseman in the AL East. (Carlos Who?) Hey, that'd be true even if Overbay got hurt, presuming Frank Thomas slid into the position. Maybe Youkilis or Wigginton -- more likely the former than the latter -- will have a big breakout season. Uh, maybe not ...

Second Base
  1. NYY: ROBINSON CANO
  2. BAL: Brian Roberts
  3. TB: Jorge Cantu
  4. TOR: Aaron Hill
  5. BOS: Dustin Pedroia
On Second Thought ... Cano is filling the Willie Randolph "valuable Yankee who gets overlooked because of all the big names around him" role ably and well. Roberts and Cantu are fine, but neither one is likely to get any MVP votes, someting that could happen for Cano. Hill and Pedroia ... who knows?

Shorstop
  1. NYY: DEREK JETER
  2. BAL: Miguel Tejada
  3. BOS: Julio Lugo
  4. TB: Ben Zobrist
  5. TOR: Royce Clayton
Stopping Short ... That's two guys who just might end up in the Hall of Fame at the top of this list -- and yes, there are plenty of good reasons to prefer Tejada, but give me Jeter. Young Ben Zobrist must be glancing northward and thanking the Jays for temping the fading Clayton into the six-hole.

Third Base
  1. NYY: ALEX RODRIGUEZ
  2. TOR: Troy Glaus
  3. BAL: Melvin Mora
  4. TB: Akinori Iwamura
  5. BOS: Mike Lowell
I Am Third ... Iwamura may be the biggest question mark in the entire division ... if he can replicate some of his Japanese seasons, he quickly becomes the best Devil Ray, like, ever, and moves higher up this list. He won't catch A-Rod (like, ever) as we remind everyone that this is a ranking based on talent, not production-per-dollar. Hey, here's a question worth asking -- Troy Glaus' "most similar" batter (by age) each of the last three seasons has been Mike Schmidt, and he could conceiveably hit his 300th home run in '07, just after turning 30. Is Glaus an eventual Hall of Famer?

Left Field
  1. BOS: Manny Ramirez
  2. NYY: HIDEKI MATSUI
  3. TB: Carl Crawford
  4. TOR: Reed Johnson
  5. BAL: Jay Payton
Feeling Left Out?... If you count defense as equivalent to ... ah, never mind. Hideki Matsui is a great player, but Manny Ramirez is a pantheon guy, the only position player in this preview (other than A-Rod) who is already a slam-dunk Hall of Famer. Maybe someday Carl Crawford will fulfill all those lofty projections and expectations, and maybe someday Reed Johnson will come crashing back to reality ... Jay Payton will be out of Baltimore before Canada Day -- mark it down.

Center Field
Front and Center ... My goodness, this is a good position for the AL East. In 2006, Patterson hit .276 with 16 homers and 45 steals; Crisp is a guy, who based on recent past performance, might well hit near .300 with 15 homers and a dozen steals himself. But they are pretty clearly fourth and fifth in the division, though you can argue which order they should be ranked in those slots. Wells is demonstrably best of show here; for the Yankees, Damon will never be Joe. D. or The Mick or even Bobby Murcer, but the Yanks would happily take a re-set of his '06 .285 with 24 homers and 25 steals, thank you very much. P.S. Vernon, Johnny, Rocco, Corey and Coco? Is this a boy band?

Right Field
  1. NYY: BOBBY ABREU
  2. TOR: Alex Rios
  3. BOS: J.D. Drew
  4. TB: Delmon Young
  5. BAL: Nick Markakis
That's All Right ... Markakis might make these rankings look silly someday, but for now, Abreu, while overpaid, is the class of the division while Rios needs to show he can "do it again" in 2007. Drew can't stay healthy, while Young -- well, for all of Tampa's over-hyped prospects of recent years, maybe he's the one that can actually live up to something? But he hasn't ... yet.

Designated Hitter
  1. BOS: David Ortiz
  2. TOR: Frank Thomas
  3. NYY: JASON GIAMBI
  4. BAL: Jay Gibbons
  5. TB: Jonny Gomes
Designated Drivers ... Giambi might prove to be over-ranked on this list eventually, while Thomas is at least possibly a retirement waiting to happen. Meanwhile, Ortiz, who is only 31 this year, may be the best bet of any active major leaguer to reach the once-hallowed ground of 62 homers -- he has 142 over the last three years. So it's Papi, then Hurt, then the division's three DH G-Men.

Rotation
  1. BOS: Schilling, Beckett, Matsuzaka, Wakefield, Lester
  2. TOR: Halladay, Burnett, Chacin, Ohka, Thomson
  3. NYY: WANG, MUSSINA, PETTITE, PAVANO, IGAWA
  4. BAL: Bedard, Cabrera, Wright, Loewen, Trachsel
  5. TB: Kazmir, Seo, Shields, Fossum, Howell
For Starters ... This may be the toughest position to rank in the entire division. Boston will grapple with age, injuries and foreign assimilation, but if everything goes as they hope, that's the best rotation in the division. Toronto has the best overall #1 guy and a collection of questions. The Yankees are sort of a combination of the Red Sox and Jays, with veterans and injury concerns on the one hand, a foreign import on the other, and a whole third hand of performance questions to boot. One thing about the Yankees -- no Rocket, no Big Unit, their rotation is, for the first time in a very long time, lacking a pantheon guy in the "ace" role. The Orioles may have the most prospective talent in the division stacking their rotation, but there's a lot of proving to be done. Tampa -- well, it's no "Spahn and Sain and pray for rain," but how about "Kazmir and Seo, then duck and say 'ow'"?

Closer
  1. NYY: MARIANO RIVERA
  2. TOR: B.J. Ryan
  3. BOS: Jon Papelbon
  4. BAL: Chris Ray
  5. TB: Dan Miceli?
Here He Comes to Save the Day ... B.J. Ryan is great, but that's the greatest closer in the history of the game in New York City, so he keeps the top spot until he does something to lose it. Papelbon back to the Red Sox closer's role, given the potential strength of the Boston rotation (see above), makes sense. Ray gets the fourth spot because Tampa still really has very little idea who will trot out there for the two or three save opportunities they face each month.

Bullpen
  1. BAL: Penn, Baez, Bradford, Williamson, Walker
  2. NYY: FARNSWORTH, MYERS, PROCTOR, HENN, BRITTON
  3. BOS: Hansen, Timlin, Donnelly, Romero, Tavarez, Pineiro
  4. TOR: Accardo, Tallet, League, Frasor, Downs, Janssen
  5. TB: Dohmann, McClung, Camp, Orvella, Jackson
The Pen is Mightier ... First, it looks like Boston and Toronto will each go with a seven-man bullpen, the closer plus six more, which is why those two teams each have one more man listed above -- not that Scott Downs or Julian Tavarez will make THAT much of a difference ... Projecting bullpen effectiveness is always one of the toughest things to do in baseball pre-season forecasts, but if healthy, that Baltimore pen (including Baltimore's Penn) looks loaded. The rest -- hey, it's healthy guesswork, really.

Bench
  1. BAL: Bako, Huff, Gomez, Fahey, Stern
  2. BOS: Mirabelli, Pena, Cora, Hinske
  3. TB: Paul, Upton, Dukes, Norton, Harris
  4. NYY: NIEVES, PHILLIPS, CAIRO, CABRERA, PHELPS
  5. TOR: Phillips, Smith, McDonald, Stairs
What Can You Bench, Dude? ... As mentioned above, the Sox and Jays may go with a seven-man bullpen, which means a four-man bench. Toronto's bench is more versatile than Boston's, but Boston's has more talent. The most talented single bench player in the division is Tampa's B.J. Upton (though Baltimore's Aubrey Huff is a close second), while, yes, Jay fans, you are likely to see ex-TO ballplayers like Josh Phelps, Chris Gomez and Eric Hinske trotting off the bench for your divisional rivals. As with the bullpens, this sort of projection is largely guesswork, at least in part because so much of a team's bench personnel is likely to change throughout a season.

Manager
  1. NYY: JOE TORRE
  2. BOS: Terry Francona
  3. TOR: John Gibbons
  4. BAL: Sam Perlozzo
  5. TB: Joe Maddon
They'll Manage, Thanks ... Torre is looking for his tenth consecutive division title and the 12th of his career, so he wins here. Francona. who granted has the magic fairy dust that comes with the first Red Sox title in four generations, has managed in the majors for eight seasons and never won a division -- and remember, this preview is about the regular season. The other three guys on this list, frankly, could be ranked in almost any order, but if Joe Maddon takes the Rays to the title, he automatically earns Greatest Manager Ever in the History of the Game Ever status.

What's it all mean?
Well, as past years have shown, these pre-season previews rarely reflect much on anything bearing a resemblance to reality. But above we have broken each team into 14 ranked parts, so let's see who "wins." Granted, not all the above parts are equal -- a #1 ranking by a team's starting rotation will probably offset mediocre rankings at a number of other positions, for instance.

And some rankings are closer than other ... for example, the #5 CF is closer to the #2 CF than the #2 third baseman is to the #1 guy at the hot corner. So there is nothing remotely genuine and mathematical about this. That said, if we assign each #1 ranking five points on down to each #5 ranking earning one point, here's where we end up:
  1. NYY 56 (4.0 average rank)
  2. BOS 46 (3.28)
  3. TOR 44 (3.14)
  4. BAL 37 (2.64)
  5. TB 27 (1.93)
And that seems about right. Call it 97 wins for the 2007 Yankees, another AL East Division flag, and then on into the playoffs -- for who knows what?

15 comments


https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20070324172602277