Cleveland

Friday, March 23 2007 @ 11:23 PM EDT

The following is not a preview so much as an attempt to start a conversation about Cleveland’s chances in 2006, in light of some different projection systems and expectations produced by the free market.

Last year in this space, I did a run-down of some of the available “investment” markets that pertained to the team and how various projection systems felt about the futures markets and propositions. This year, I will do the same.

I suppose that it goes without saying, but the following is for entertainment purposes only. This goes double for you non-Nevada American readers, as somebody went and ruined all the fun.

Last Season, the over/under line for Cleveland wins was set at 89.5. While a naked-eye fast glance at that number – with visions of all the young players building upon their breakout or semi-breakout 2005 seasons – had many believing that the number was a bit low, Bill James’ plexi-glass principle presented reason for concern. The projection systems were not fooled, as each had them pegged for under 89.5 wins.

In addition to the win total, last year’s preview showed some match-ups being offered by sports books, for example: Cleveland -7.5 wins vs. Philadelphia. There were nine such markets detailed in this space last season, and the three projection systems fared very well: PECOTA was 8-0-0, Diamond Mind 7-2-0, and ZiPS 6-2-1.

There were also individual fantasy style bets to be considered, such as who would hit more homeruns, Hafner -2.5 vs. Howard. We know how that one turned out. On the fantasy propositions, PECOTA finished 5-3-0, ZiPS 4-3-0.

After searching some websites that offer wagering, I have culled some future and proposition markets that will be presented below, along with how various projection systems feel about them.

Win Total

The consensus win total that I have gleaned from the wagering community is 86.5.

Whereas last season the projection systems were unanimous (and correct) in picking Cleveland to finish under its win total, this season the systems are unanimous in picking them to finish over the total.

Line	DMB	PECOTA	ZiPS
86.5 Wins	Over (91.5)	Over (87.3)	Over (87.7

The numbers here were generated by the Replacement Level Yankees Weblog, which ran a number of simulations based on some different projection systems.

The over projection is supported by (among other things) the fact that Cleveland posted a 78-84 record in 2006 despite having a BP Adjusted Standings Report third order record of 88.7-77.3. This was the largest such discrepancy in baseball and the implication is that their inefficiency in 2006 was fluky and will prove to be transient. Given that bullpen strength is the most oft-cited factor by those who think that some team characteristics belie the assumption that they will regress toward efficiency-adjusted records, there is reason for cynics and believers alike to expect improvement, as all can agree that Cleveland’s bullpen will be stronger in 2007 than it was in 2006.

Subjectively, I think that the line set by book-makers, 86.5, in suppressed by an inflated public perception of two of Cleveland’s divisional foes. Having to face Chicago and Detroit so often may not be as painful as it appears.

Wins Match-ups

In these wagering markets, the bettor is asked to consider one team’s total wins in relation to another’s.

Line	Match Up	DMB	PECOTA	ZiPS
-4.5	San Diego	SD +4.5	SD +4.5	SD +4.5
-9.5	Cincinnati	Cle -9.5	Cle -9.5	Cle -9.5
+3	New York (NL)	Cle +3	Cle +3	Cle +3
-5.5	Atlanta	Cle -5.5	Cle -5.5	Atl +5.5

There is a clear trend here, as in the win total market, of the projection systems liking Cleveland.

At first glance, I do not see any extremely “easy pickins” among those four match ups, but if forced, I would probably lean to Atlanta +5.5 and Cleveland +3 vs. the Mets.

Player Match Ups

These markets exist at the nexus between fantasy and wagering, wherein the goal is to pick which player in the match up will out-perform the other in the given statistical category, keeping in mind the line.

Stat	Match Up	Shandler	PECOTA	ZiPS
Hits	Martinez +2 v. Mauer	Martinez	Mauer	Mauer
Hits	Sizemore +5.5 v. Rollins	Rollins	Rollins	Sizemore
Hits	Hafner +2 v. Fielder	Fielder	Hafner	Fielder
HR	Hafner -1 v. Dunn	Hafner	Dunn	Dunn
RBI	Hafner -12.5 v. Bay	Hafner	Bay	Hafner
R	Hafner +6.5 v. Holliday	Hafner	Hafner	Holliday
R	Sizemore -14.5 v. Ichiro	Ichiro	Sizemore	Sizemore
R	Sizemore -2.5 v. Utley	Sizemore	Utley	Sizemore
SB	Sizemore +2.5 v. Damon	Damon	Sizemore	Sizemore
HR	Sizemore +4.5 v. Soriano	Soriano	Soriano	Soriano
Wins	Westbrook -2.5 v. James	Westbrook	Westbrook	Westbrook
Wins	Sabathia +0.5 v. Mussina	Sabathia	Sabathia	Sabathia

There are only three consensus picks: Sizemore not to finish within 4.5 home runs of Alfonso Soriano, Westbrook to better Chuck James by at least 3 wins, and Sabathia to get at least as many wins as Mike Mussina. The Sizemore/Soriano homer match up seems like a particularly strange line – intuitively, one would think that the handicap should be closer to 10.

Player Stats

These markets pose the simple question of whether a certain player will finish over or under a certain statistical threshold.

Player	Stat	Threshold	Shandler	PECOTA	ZiPS
V. Martinez	BA	.303	Over (.309)	Under (.290)	Over (.304)
V. Martinez	RBI	90	Over (91)	Under (80)	Over (92)
T. Hafner	HR	42.5	Over (45)	Under (37)	Under (34)
T. Hafner	RBI	110	Over (121)	Under (109)	Over (114)
G. Sizemore	HR	29.5	Over (32)	Under (25)	Under (27)
G. Sizemore	RBI	90	Over (97)	Over (91)	Under (85)
G. Sizemore	R	120.5	Under (116)	Under (104)	Over (126)

The online establishment that offers these player stats markets stipulates that a player must play in 140 Major League games during the season, or else the bet will be ruled “no action” (i.e. the stake returned to the bettor). Without such a rule, the lines would have to be lower to compensate for the possibility of a lengthy DL stint – something that PECOTA’s weighted mean approach picks up on by picking virtually all “unders”.

Miscellaneous Markets

Proposition	Line
Cleveland to win AL Central	+300
Cleveland to win AL Pennant	+1200
Cleveland to win World Series	+2120
Hafner to lead MLB in Home Runs	+1500
Borowski to lead MLB in Saves	+900
Sabathia to lead MLB in Wins	+2000
Sabathia to win AL Cy Young Award	+1500
Hafner to win AL MVP Award	+1200
Sizemore to win AL MVP Award	+1500
Wedge to win AL Manager of the Year Award	+700

One interesting thing that I noticed in perusing these markets is that the +700 odds on Wedge to win the AL Manager of the Year Award actually make him the favourite, which is sensible. Wedge will be managing a team that is a virtual lock to improve and has a decent chance to win a division that many believe (rightly or otherwise) to be the best in baseball.

Another notable thing is that the odds to win the pennant are slightly greater than half the odds to win the World Series, indicating an appropriate American League bias.

Five For My Entertainment Purposes Only

1. Per the projection system consensus above, I’ll take over 86.5 wins.
2. I like Atlanta more than most this season. Give me Atlanta +5.5 over Cleveland in the battle of two teams with great offenses and offensive logos.
3. Grady Sizemore +2.5 stolen bases over the aging Johnny Damon.
4. Victor Martinez under .303 batting average.
5. Sizemore for MVP at +1500.

What do You Guys Think?

Bauxites, which five of these propositions/futures would be most likely to fulfill your entertainment purposes (only)?

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