There are many reasons to expect Florida to take a step back in 2007.
1. Teams that make a big leap forward usually regress the next season
2. Florida's 2006 season was driven by the stellar performance of several rookies, the sophomore slump is likely to play its part in 2007
3. Florida relied on four rookie starters who threw almost 600 major league innings between them, expect injuries in 2007
4. Florida rallied around a fresh charismatic manager, Joe Girardi. Lightning might not strike twice with Fredi Gonzalez
5. Dan Uggla is the universal pick of "poolies" to underperform in 2007
6. Dontrelle Willis has pitched over 800 innings in the last four seasons, all before his 25th birthday
The best thing the Marlins have going for them is Larry Beinfest, one of the most unknown, but brightest, general managers in the game.
The Marlins had a lot of things go right in 2006 and the biggest thing to go right was the contribution of nine rookies who played big roles in the Marlins surprisingly good season. Manager Joe Girardi motivated and rallied the kids and after a slow start produced a team to be reckoned with over the final four months. The Marlins were somewhat fortunate to largely evade injury, Jeremy Hermida and Sergio Mitre were the biggest losses. But can they all do it again, can the rookies repeat their performance as sophomores?
The obvious answer is no. Teams that show big improvements in one year usually slip back the next year. The same expectation applies to rookies, the sophomore slump is not a guarantee but it is common. The Mariners had three of the top four rookies last season, those players often overachieve year one and take a step back in year two. Pitchers who increase their workload often get injured. Indeed Josh Johnson will miss the start of the season and Taylor Tankersley and Anibel Sanchez have had injury issues.
The Mariners pitching in 2006 relied on several rookies. The major league season is a long one, almost a month longer than the minor leagues, and starting pitchers often tire with the workload. Josh Johnson was shut down the last few weeks of last season and already in 2007 we know Johnson has nerve damage and will miss the early part of the season, at least. Anibel Sanchez has had shoulder soreness although he appears to have recovered. So in general there are several reasons why expectations for the Marlins should be conservative.
As mentioned the biggest strength of the Marlins is Larry Bienfest, the general manager. Beinfest cleared out several highly paid players in 2005/6 at the behest of owner Jeffrey Loria. He wasn't the first GM to do this and he wasn't the first the trade veterans for prospects, but his return was excellent. Trading for prospects is always a risky proposition, many of these kinds of trades work out poorly, but Bienfest didn't miss on many trades. The Marlins farm system also contributed heavily with three picks from the 2002 draft, Hermida, Johnson and Olsen, playing big roles last season. Here is the 2006 line-up showing how they came into the organization.
Lineup:
Catcher - Miguel Olivo - signed as a free agent
First - Mike Jacobs - obtained in the Carlos Delgado trade
Second - Dan Uggla - picked in the rule 5 draft
Short - Hanley Ramirez - obtained in the Josh Beckett trade
Third - Miguel Cabrera - signed as a minor league free agent
Left - Josh Willingham - drafted in the 17th round of the 2000 draft
Centre - Cody Ross/Alfredo Amezega - signed as free agents
Right - Jeremy Hermida - drafted in the first round of the 2002 draft
Pitching
Dontrelle Willis - obtained via trade in 2002
Scott Olsen - drafted in the 6th round of the 2002 draft
Anibal Sanchez - obtained in the Josh Beckett trade
Josh Johnson - drafted in the 4th round of the 2002 draft
Ricky Nolasco - obtained in the Juan Pierre trade
Brian Moehler - signed as a free agent
Joe Borowski (2006) - signed as a free agent
Of the fifteen "regulars" four were drafted by the Marlins, five came via trades, four were signed as free agents, one signed as a minor league free agent and one was drafted in the rule 5 draft
Miguel Cabrera is the "veteran" of the lineup at age 23. The offense was led in 2006 by Cabrera, Ramirez, Uggla, Jacobs and Willingham, four out of five were rookies. Hanley Ramirez not only had a good offensive year but emerged as one the top shortstop prospects in the game. Ramirez was a Boston prospect who came to Florida in the Josh Beckett deal. Dan Uggla was a steal in the rule 5 draft and joins Blue Jays such as George Bell and Kelly Gruber as a testament to scouting. Mike Jacobs came over in the Carlos Delgado trade with Yusmeiro Petit who will challenge for a pitching job in 2007. Beinfest's ability to fill the holes in the lineup through trades was the major reason for the success of the 2006 Marlins.
2007 Lineup:
Catcher - Miguel Olivo
First - Mike Jacobs
Second - Dan Uggla
Short - Hanley Ramirez
Third - Miguel Cabrera
Left - Josh Willingham
Centre - Cody Ross/Alex Sanchez
Right - Jeremy Hermida
Miguel Olivo is one of the weak links in the Marlins order. Olivo hit .263 last season but walked only nine, yes nine, times. Olivo's OBP was .287 and his OPS+ was 87. Olivo turns 28 during the season so there is hope for a career year but his OPS+ in 2005 was 63 so maybe last season was his career year.
Mike Jacobs hit 20 home runs and slugged .473 last season. Jacobs had an OPS+ of 106. Jacobs has hit reasonably but in general your first baseman should be one of your best hitters.
Dan Uggla was the surprise of the 2006 season, a rule 5 pick who not only stuck with the Marlins but finished third in rookie of the year voting. Uggla had 60 extra base hits including 27 home runs. Uggla's OPS+ was 112. When fantasy baseball experts preview drafts for the 2007 season most of them warn players against overbidding on Uggla. The sophomore slump is the most obvious reason for this advice, plus the expectation that a rule 5 selection must have something wrong with him. But experts are also concerned with Uggla's second half of 2006. The so-called second time around the league saw Uggla's OPS drop to .754, about average, versus the .890 he put up in the first half. Which half will we see in 2007?
Hanley Ramirez was the NL rookie of the year last season. Ramirez has it all, speed with 51 steals and 11 triples, power with 17 home runs, a good eye with 56 walks, and good defense. Ramirez OPS+ was 116, excellent for a shortstop. Ramirez was NL rookie of the year and should be a fixture for years to come.
Miguel Cabrera is the leader of the team and hit .339 with 86 walks and a .568 slugging average. Cabrera's OPS+ was 159. It is hard to believe that Cabrera is only 23 years old, he has three and a half seasons under his belt. Cabrera is a special talent and will likely get better. The Marlins have only a couple more years to sign him, trade him or lose him.
Josh Willingham is another Marlin with a strong debut season, a .277 batting average, 26 home runs and 54 walks leads to an OPS+ of 121. Willingham is a converted catcher, his defense in left was not very good but the Marlins hope that now that Willingham has ayear under his belt his defense will improve.
Jeremy Hermida was touted as one of the top prospects in the game heading into 2006, Hermida was # on Baseball America's top prospect list. In that light Hermida's 2006 was disappointing, a .251 batting average and only five home runs. Hermida was injured for part of 2006 with a bad back, I expect him to bounce back with a big year.
Centre field was home to many players last season. Reggie Abercrombie had it first but his 58 OPS+ lost him the job and he had only 51 at-bats after the all-star break. Abercrombie has already been sent down this spring. Alfredo Amezaga and Cody Ross each spent time there but they both had OPS+ of 76 so neither won a job. This year the competition is between Alex Sanchez and Eric Reed. Neither is likely to deliver a major impact to the offense.
The offense is keyed by five 2006 rookies, Ramirez, Uggla, Jacobs, Willingham and Hermida. Hermida is likely to have a better 2007 than 2006 but on average the other four should be down from 2006. I will forecast 744 runs scored in 2007 versus 758 in 2006.
Pitching
Dontrelle Willis
Scott Olsen
Anibal Sanchez
Josh Johnson DL
Ricky Nolasco
Sergio Mitre/Yusmeiro Petit
Dontrelle Willis has just turned 25 and in his first four major league seasons he has thrown 161, 197, 236 and 223 innings. That's 817 innings pitched before his 25th birthday. Willis' WHIP last season was 1.42, the highest of his career. Pitchers who throw so much before their 25th birthday are in danger of blowing up. Willis does have an unusual motion but he has put a lot of wear and tear on his arm, the Marlins hope to get full value before they lose him to free agency.
Scott Olsen made 31 starts last season, pitched 180 innings, and had an ERA of 4.04, an ERA+ of 107. Olsen has the best reputation of the rookies and many experts predict a big year from him. Olsen led the Marlins in strike-outs last season with 166 but he did walk 75. Olsen gave up less than a hit an inning and if he can reduce his walks his ERA should take a jump ahead.
Josh Johnson made 24 starts before being shut down in September with sore arm. Johnson finished fourth in rookie of the year voting with an ERA of 3.10, an ERA+ of 139. Johnson has nerve damage in his arm and will miss the start of the season. Johnson had an excellent 3.10 ERA last season helped by only allowing 14 home runs in 157 innings. 2007 looks very uncertain for Josh.
Ricky Nolasco made 22 starts in 2006 and had a 4.82 ERA. Nolasco was headed for the bullpen before Johnson was injured. Nolasco has had a slow start to the spring as he is battling back spasms but he appears to be recovered.
Anibel Sanchez was called up mid-season and made 17 starts including a no-hitter. Although he complained of shoulder pain before spring training he has been taking a regular turn and appears set to start the season. Sanchez had a 2.83 ERA in 114 innings but only struck-out 72 hitters.
The fifth spot in the rotation while Johnson is out will be decided between Sergio Mitre and Yusmeiro Petit. Mitre came in the Pierre deal and made seven starts last season before coming down with a shoulder injury. He returned to pitch out of the bullpen late in the season but was not effective in that role. Petit came over in the Delgado deal and had great stats in the minors but is a control pitcher who might have difficulties adapting to the majors. Petit pitched 27 innings last season and had a 9.57 ERA. Look for Mitre to get the spot unless he is injured.
Bullpen
Joe Borowski is gone and the Marlins brought in Kevin Gregg, ex of the Angels who will likely be their closer. Taylor Tankersley was another option at closer but he has been injured all spring and will be touch and go to be ready for opening day. Several other rookies, again obtained in trades, such as Matt Lindstrom and Henry Owens also have a shot. Otherwise the bullpen will be manned by a bunch of young players, whoever pitches well gets a job.
Summary
The Marlins allowed 772 runs in 2006. With the injury to Josh Johnson, the sophomore impact, a young bullpen and worries about Willis, I forecast the Marlins will allow 807 runs in 2007. That translates to a 77-85 season which might be a little optimistic, by gut says 74-88.
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