Jays Lock Up Overbay For Four Years

Sunday, January 14 2007 @ 10:30 AM EST

Contributed by: Pistol

Jeff Blair reports that the Jays and Lyle Overbay have agreed on a 4 year, $24 million contract.

Overbay was entering his second year of arbitration and was eligible to become a free agent following the 2008 season. A breakout of his salaries:

2007 - $4.2 million (includes $3.8 million as a signing bonus)
2008 - $5.8 million
2009 - $7.0 million
2010 - $7.0 million

I'm mixed about the deal. On the positive side in an environment where Shea Hillenbrand is able to sign for $6.5 million and Nomar Garciaparra signed for $9.25 milllion locking the durable Overbay up for $7.0 million in 2009 and 2010 seems like a pretty good deal.

On the other side of things Overbay has a few things working against him. He'll be 30 in a couple weeks and was late making the majors. Players of these type generally decline quicker than others. I mentioned the other day that Overbay was pretty similar to Hal Morris. Morris hit the majors at 25 (Overbay at 26), had several .370 OBP / .470 SLG type seasons and then was highly ineffective beginning in his age 32 season. If Overbay were to follow a similar path the last two years of that contract aren't going to look good. Certainly not all of his comparable players flame out like that, but of that top 10 age 29 comparable player list it's more bad than good. It'll be interesting to see his PECOTA comparables this year - last year it wasn't that strong of a group (Travis Lee, Sid Bream and Doug Mientkiewicz were the top 3).

The other part of it that I don't like is that the Jays may need to use Glaus at first base eventually. Glaus certainly looked like a very old player last year the way he limped around so much and hasn't been the most durable player in the past. A move across might be the best option for him in 2008 or 2009. Additionally, it's been mentioned that first base might be the best position for Adam Lind. This move seems to indicate the Jays are comfortable with Lind in the outfield, but if he doesn't work out in the OF the only other option for Lind is DH (which is also filled for a couple years). Of course, there's nothing that prevents the Jays from trading Overbay if they need to use someone else at first base so this is less of a concern.

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