Hall Watch 2006-The Outfielders-Johnny Damon

Monday, December 18 2006 @ 07:11 AM EST

Johnny Damon, Hall of Famer? You must be kidding me. John Brattain thinks he might. Our own Magpie pointed out that: "If Damon ends up with 1600 Runs Scored and 3000 hits, which he is well on The way to doing, he's a No-Doubt-About-It Hall of Famer". Not to mention that he added power in 2006, hitting .285 with 24 homers and good plate discipline. So, maybe it is not so far-fetched.

Johnny Damon was a first round pick of the Royals (32nd overall) out of high school in 1992. He reported to Rookie League that summer, and hit .350 with medium range pop and excellent strike zone control. He was promoted to the Midwest League at age 19, and held his own, hitting .290 with less, but still adequate, strike zone control. He tacked on 59 stolen bases that season. The following year in the Carolina League, he put up almost identical numbers but walked more than he struck out. In 1995, Damon broke out in double A Witchita, hitting .343 with 16 homers and walking about twice as often as he struck out. At age 21, he was a great prospect, and the Royals called him up to the Show for good in August.

He really must not have been quite ready, because he hit .270-.280 with a little pop and adequate but not great plate discipline for the remainder of 1995 and for the next 2 years. In 1998, he added more power at age 24, stroking 18 homers, and followed that up by .300 with excellent plate discipline and medium range pop for the Royals in 1999-00. After an off-year in 2001 with the Athletics, he was a free agent and signed a 4 year contract with the Red Sox. He was good each year, but starred in their championship 2004 year including a memorable grand slam in Game 7 of the Sox' comeback victory over the Yankees in the ALCS. After 2005, he moved on to the Yankees on another 4 year contract. At age 32, he hit a career high 24 homers. It was no fluke, he put the ball in the air much more than in previous seasons.

Throughout his career, he has been a good, but not great, defensive centerfielder, and has stolen on average 30 bases per year with a fairly good rate of success. So, who are Damon's comparison points? Willie Davis, Amos Otis, Richie Ashburn, Brett Butler, Jimmy Sheckard, and Max Carey. We cover most of the 20th century with these guys. Let us see how he matches up at age 32. We'll look at hits and runs, as well the other measures.

Player	AB	H	R	W	K	HR	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLUG	OPS+
Damon	6770	1958	1188	665	789	154	306	85	.289	.353	.436	104
W. Davis	6896	1920	922	321	753	138	318	111	.278	.311	.410	106
Otis	5605	1576	873	616	736	159	295	78	.281	.351	.437	120
Ashburn	7122	2217	1114	946	455	22	199	75	.311	.394	.388	111
Butler	4379	1232	742	564	465	36	307	141	.281	.367	.378	107
Sheckard	6830	1907	1177	945	111	53	439	----	.279	.374	.386	124
Carey	6331	1792	1026	691	568	48	532	---	.283	.359	.379	111

Davis and Otis are pretty comparable to Damon, aren't they? Better, actually. Davis had 1 more good season and then 3 average ones left after age 32. Otis' best season after age 32 was interrupted by the strike in 1982. Sheckard had one average season and one poor one left. Ashburn had 2 good seasons left, Carey three while Butler had 6 (!).

Is Damon on a likely Hall of Fame path? What would it take for him to be a Hall of Famer on merit? If Damon has 3 good seasons and 3 average seasons over the next 7, he'll end up with 3000 hits and 1700 runs scored and walk into the Hall of Fame. On merit, he really needs a Butler-like end to his career to make him a good candidate in my view. He's pretty clearly going to end up noticeably behind Lou Whitaker, and probably not much better, if at all, than Willie Davis.

Next up: Ken Griffey Jr.

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