Early Look at College Hitters

Tuesday, December 19 2006 @ 08:00 AM EST

Here's an early look at the top college hitters in the 07 draft.

There's a couple things that jump out to me. One, there aren't a lot of college positional players rated highly. In BA's top 50 there were just 8. Two, most of these positional players are catchers.

With the Jays having 7 selections in the top 100 picks or so chances are good that they'll probably take a stab at a catcher at some point.


Matt Wieters, C, Georgia Tech

Year	ABs	Ave	OBP	SLG	K/BB	K%
2006	259	0.355	0.480	0.606	0.7	12.0%
2005	227	0.366	0.470	0.581	0.7	11.6%

Wieters, a switch hitter, is considered one of the top players in the draft and it's not too hard to see why. He also is the team's closer.


Julio Borbon, OF, Tennessee

Year	ABs	Ave	OBP	SLG	K/BB	K%
2006	235	0.366	0.412	0.481	0.8	5.9%
2005	220	0.350	0.386	0.450	2.8	14.1%

Borbon is a leadoff type, stealing 31 of 39 bases in two years, and plays center field. Interestingly, he cut his strikeouts dramatically in 2006, but didn't hit much better because of it.


Matt Mangini, 3B, Oklahoma St

Year	ABs	Ave	OBP	SLG	K/BB	K%
2006	239	0.343	0.409	0.531	2.0	20.1%

He's currently rated as a mid-first round pick, but I don't see it in the numbers. It's a red flag to me when I see a K rate over 20% in college.


JP Arencibia, C, Tennessee

Year	ABs	Ave	OBP	SLG	K/BB	K%
2006	216	0.352	0.419	0.583	1.5	12.2%
2005	283	0.322	0.379	0.534	1.5	11.9%

I do see good things in Arencibia's numbers however. The line above is obviously strong, especially for a catcher. In addition, Arencibia plays in a pitcher's park in a tough league (SEC) so you can mentally adjust those numbers up a bit. He could very well be one of the Jays targets with their first pick and I'm on the bandwagon.


Todd Frazier, SS/OF, Rutgers

Year	ABs	Ave	OBP	SLG	K/BB	K%
2006	227	0.366	0.471	0.599	1.0	15.2%
2005	220	0.295	0.392	0.505	1.3	16.6%

It doesn't sound like Frazier will remain at SS, with a move to 3B or the OF a possibility. The strikeouts are a bit on the high side, but everything else looks pretty strong. He's another player the Jays could be targeting with one of their two first round picks.


Josh Donaldson, C, Auburn

Year	ABs	Ave	OBP	SLG	K/BB	K%
2006	228	0.276	0.331	0.487	2.7	16.5%
2005	153	0.294	0.347	0.477	3.1	20.4%

Donaldson followed Josh Bell as the catcher at Auburn and has a similar profile at the plate through his first two years in college.


Mitch Canham, C, Oregon St

Year	ABs	Ave	OBP	SLG	K/BB	K%
2006	224	0.299	0.390	0.496	1.5	17.2%
2005	160	0.325	0.423	0.531	1.5	19.7%

The strikeouts are high, but everything else statistically looks pretty good. Lots of walks, good pop, and was on the College World Series winner in 2006.


Josh Horton, SS, North Carolina

Year	ABs	Ave	OBP	SLG	K/BB	K%
2006	271	0.395	0.455	0.542	0.8	9.1%
2005	193	0.347	0.398	0.466	1.1	9.0%

His statistical profile is similiar to Russ Adams' last year at UNC (.370/.476/.555).

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There's a site that has the draft order up to date, plus all of the potential picks that could be gained as the remaining free agents offered arbitration sign with other teams.

The Jays will have 7 picks in the top 100 of the 2007 draft. As of right now the picks are below, most of which will slide down a bit as players offered arbitration switch teams. The biggest potential move would be if the Rangers signed Zito or Suppan - the Jays would drop from #16 to the Ranger's 2nd round pick which will likely be in the low 80s.

#16 (from the Rangers)
#21 (own 1st round pick)
#41 (for Speier - pick will be no worse than #42)
#52 (for Cat - pick will be no worse than #57)
#57 (for Lilly - pick will be no worse than #63)
#80 (own 2nd round pick - pick will be no worse than #89)
#83 (from the Angels - pick will be no worse than #92)

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