Blue Jays Sign Rod Barajas

Monday, November 27 2006 @ 09:00 AM EST

There's a new catcher in town.

UPDATE: Or maybe not....... TR Sullivan at MLB.com wrote that the Barajas deal fell apart, Barajas changed agents and canceled his trip to Toronto.

Jeff Blair reports that the Jays are in negotiations again with Zaun and that the Barajas signing isn't the done deal that was published as done this morning, pending a phyiscal, and confirmed by Barajas' agent.

"One of these guys is going to be the Blue Jays catcher," a source close to negotiations said late Monday night.

"We don't have an agreement with anybody at this point,'' Ricciardi said.

Asked if he still had interest in Barajas, Ricciardi said he couldn't comment right now. Asked if he hoped to sign Zaun this week, Ricciardi said: "Yeah. I hope to have something done with somebody this week.''

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The Sun and Star both report that the deal is done pending a physical, with the Sun's article receiving confirmation from Barajas' agent. Jeff Blair first reported that the Jays and Barajas were close to a deal late last week so the signing isn't the surprise that Frank Thomas was. The contract is for 2 years and approximately $6 million. Barajas is slated to become the Jays everyday catcher, replacing the duo of Gregg Zaun and Bengie Molina. Jason Phillips is likely to fill the backup catcher role.

Here's a look at Barajas' hitting stats the last three years:

SEASON	G	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS+
2004	108	358	0.249	0.276	0.453	78
2005	120	410	0.254	0.306	0.466	98
2006	97	344	0.256	0.298	0.410	78

As you can see, Barajas is a low AVG/low OBP hitter with some pop. He'll enter 2007 as a 31 year old so there's no reason to expect a significant change in his offense. It's very likely that the Jays will get much lower production on offense from the catcher position in 2007. Additionally, Barajas becomes the Jays 7th right handed bat in the lineup, with Overbay currently being the only left handed hitter (and one middle infield position pending).

While he's not going to be a big asset with his bat Barajas does seem to have some defensive value, especially compared to Zaun and Molina. Barajas' caught stealing percentage was at 33% last year and runners ran on him much less frequently. Of the 50 catchers with the most innings caught last year Barajas ranked 8th in the number of stolen base attempts against him.

Here's a comparison of some defensive numbers of Barajas, Molina and Zaun from last season:

NAME	INN	E	PB	SBA/9	SB/9	CS%	CERA
Rod Barajas, Tex	825	10	5	0.62	0.41	33%	4.71
Bengie Molina, Tor	842	2	11	0.89	0.73	18%	4.40
Gregg Zaun, Tor	541	3	4	1.20	0.91	24%	4.34

SBA/9 is stolen base attempts per 9 innings (the rate at which teams tried to steal). SB/9 is stolen bases allowed per 9 innings (the number of successful steals per 9 innings).

As you can see from the table baserunners were much less likely to attempt to run on Barajas than Molina/Zaun, and when they did they were more likely to be caught. In 2006 the Jays were 29th in SBs allowed and 28th in SB% allowed so certainly this was a problem for the team.

What's not easy to gauge is how much of the lost offense will be made up with an increase in defense. Baseball Prospectus had Barajas at 2.0 WARP for 2006. Zaun was at 2.8 WARP and Molina was at 2.3 WARP (combined over 215 games - they each had some DH time). So just eyeballing it the Jays will lose about 2 wins from last year's tandem to this year's tandem. Barajas is certainly a below average catcher, but the Jays aren't paying him to be more than that and apparently feel that there's not much overall difference between Barajas and Zaun.

I think there's a downgrade from Zaun to Barajas, but probably not as much as the average Bauxite. So I don't think this is a bad signing, I just don't think it's the most ideal signing. I'd prefer Zaun at 3.5-4.0 million to Barajas. But I also would have preferred Jason Larue. He was traded recently and I think he would have been the better alternative to Barajas at the same cost. The Royals gave a PTBNL for Larue and will pay him about $2.75 million this year. The Royals certainly aren't trading a real prospect for a 30-something catcher so the PTBNL isn't anyone of value (think the SS Loogy deal). Larue hit like garbage this year and still managed a OBP of .317. That's above Barajas' ceiling. Additionally, Larue's rates regarding stolen bases are nearly identical to Barajas. I think Larue's downside is Barajas' upside, unless there's some medical issue I'm unaware of that impacts Larue going forward.

Unless the Jays offer arbitration to Zaun and/or Molina and they were to accept, neither catcher will be back with the team in 2007. I fully expect the Jays to offer Zaun arbitration. He seems to have several teams interested in him and would cost that team no compensation (the Jays would get a sandwich pick). Plus, if Zaun were to accept arbitration the Jays would have him for a one year deal at a reasonable price and again have a nice catcher platoon in 2007 and a LH option on the bench. The Jays can afford that problem. Molina on the other hand would almost certainly accept arbitration if it was offered. As an 'A' free agent the signing team would forfeit a draft pick to sign him which isn't likely in my opinion. Given how arbitration seems to work Molina would get at least as much as he made last season, and possibly more. That cost, plus Molina's right handedness (which the Jays have with Barajas now) makes him an unlikely option.

The Jays apparently are fine with the downgrade at catcher (which would have happened even if they re-signed Zaun or Molina), opting to use the available money in other places. First was Frank Thomas to upgrade the DH spot and now the Jays will attempt to sign a middle infielder and starting pitcher. The Star article had the Jays in the mix for one of Lilly, Meche, Padilla and Mulder, with Meche being considered the favorite. Additionally, Adam Kennedy's name was mentioned as a 2B possibility.

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