Evaluating shortstops is especially challenging because of the
importance of, and the difficulty in measuring, their defensive
abilities. Two years ago, I wrote about evaluation standards, and then about Alex Rodriguez, Nomar Garciaparra, Derek Jeter, Barry Larkin, and Julio Franco.
I am going to treat Alex Rodriguez as a third baseman this time, so
he'll have to wait another week or two. I also have nothing to
add to what I said about Larkin. So for now, it's Nomar, Jeter
and Franco.
Nomar Garciaparra
Here is what I said two years ago:
"The interesting comparison is Banks. Banks to this stage in his career
was slightly better than Garciaparra, and more importantly had played
signficantly more games. Banks had very modest value in his 30s as an
average first baseman. But, Ernie Banks had garnered more fame than
Garciaparra in his 20s by virtue of the back-to-back MVP awards,
although his team had much less success than Nomar's.
If
Garciaparra can put in 3 more good seasons as a shortstop, and then
finish his career in his late 30s at some other position, one would
think that he would be Hall-worthy, and likely to be admitted. If he
does not, my guess is that he will likely not be admitted, with the
record of his teams, the decline in his defence, and the shortness of
his career being key factors.
My own view is that he was a
great, great player, and that he should be admitted unless his career
is very short. Joe Cronin, Vern Stephens and Alan Trammell were all
significantly lesser hitters than Nomar and about even with the glove,
but I think they all should be in. Cronin is the only one of the three
who is, so far."
The Banks comparison continues to be a good
one. At age 31, Garciaparra moved to first base as Banks did at the
same age. Two years ago, Banks was ahead of Nomar primarily because of
durability. The pattern has continued, as Nomar has played 184 games
over the last 2 years. He did however put up a nice .303/.367/.505 line
in 2006, and he may yet be a valuable contributor even as a first
baseman for a few years. For now, he is one of several middle
infielders who had very strong peak performance, but relatively short
careers in the middle infield. He joins Stephens, Banks, Joe Gordon and
Laughing Larry Doyle in this category. I am less convinced of Nomar's
Hall-worthiness (and Stephens' Hall-worthiness due to the influence of
his peak during the war years) than I was 2 years ago. I remain
doubtful that he will in fact be elected. We will check back on
Nomar in another 2 years.
Derek Jeter
Derek
Jeter, on the other hand, has played some of his best ball in his early
30s, with 2006's .343/.417/.482 line making him a solid MVP candidate.
He tacked on 34 stolen bases in 39 tries. He really is a fine, fine
hitter. Check out his ball in play
profile from The Hardball Times- 20% line drives, 60% ground balls, 2%
of fly balls are pop-ups, and 15% go over the wall. Two years ago, I
said:
"Derek Jeter is, according to Baseball Reference,
most comparable to Alan Trammell. It is not a bad comparison. Jeter is
somewhat superior offensively and Trammell somewhat superior
defensively. I’d say that it is pretty close overall. It is also true
that both players emerged with other stars on their teams (Trammell had
Gibson, Whitaker and Jack Morris accompanying him on the fine Tiger
teams of the 80s). The major difference between their two clubs was the
Yankees’ ability to acquire the secondary talent to accompany their
stars, which led to more consistent triumphs.
Logic would
indicate that Jeter will fare better in his 30s than Trammell (who had
only 3 good seasons after 30). Jeter is a better hitter, and position
change is a more viable option for Jeter than it was for Trammell. On
the other hand, Jeter’s fame and ego prevented a position change when
the younger and better A-Rod arrived in New York in 2004, and there is
little indication that this will change any time soon.
Still,
I have argued that Trammell belongs in the Hall of Fame, and if he
does, then so too does Jeter, assuming that his career follows an
average path from here."
So far, Jeter is well above the
norm for early 30s performance. He should be a shoo-in. Interestingly,
his top Baseball Reference comparable is now Roberto Alomar. They are,
through age 32, quite comparable offensive players, and share the flair
for the dramatic defensive play, but the unimpressive defensive
statistics. Another interesting comparable is George Davis, who shared
the offensive profile of Alomar and Jeter. Davis had the defensive rep
too, but we are still waiting on the defensive metrics for the 1890s.
Here is the offensive comparison, purely for entertainment value:
| Player | AB | HR | W | K | AVG. | OBP. | SLUG. | SB | CS | OPS+ |
| Jeter | 6790 | 183 | 705 | 1191 | .317 | .388 | .463 | 249 | 62 | 123 |
| Alomar | 7221 | 170 | 822 | 878 | .304 | .375 | .448 | 416 | 100 | 119 |
| Davis | 6481 | 70 | 628 | 180 | .312 | .377 | .439 | 485 | (unknown) | 125 |
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