Hall Watch 2006- Leadoff Hitters-Ichiro Suzuki

Monday, October 23 2006 @ 12:10 PM EDT

Ichiro! is an icon. This makes it hard to look at him objectively. But, try we will. 2006 was an interesting year for Ichiro. His batting average and isolated power were down, and his strikeout and pop-up rates were up. On the other hand, he was hitting more balls in the air, and stole 45 bases in 47 attempts. Was this the first year of a decline or a transition year on the way to Ichiro developing more power? He certainly has the strength to do it, and I would not bet against him. We shall see.

Ichiro was drafted at age 18 by the Orix Blue Wave of the Japanese Pacific League. He reached the League on a full-time basis at age 20, and was immediately a dominant player, hitting .370 with Gold-Glove defence in right-field, medium range power, and good plate discipline. He maintained the same level, with modest variation, for 7 seasons before making the leap across the ocean to Seattle. In MLB, he has hit .330, with modest variation from year to year, with some power and slightly above average plate discipline, an almost perfect translation of his Japanese league performance. He has been remarkably durable throughout his career, essentially playing every game in the major leagues and missing a grand total of about 60 games in his 7 Japanese League seasons. He has been generally regarded as the best defensive right-fielder of his generation, and statistical measures do support the view.

Finding comparables for Ichiro is not clear cut. Some sources simply ignore his performance in the Japanese Pacific League, and compare his performance from age 27-32 with others who spend their entire careers in MLB. That cannot be right. There are a number of ways to adjust JPL statistics, but as Ichiro has had a flat career path and he played essentially the same number of games in the JPL as he has in MLB, the simplest thing is to simply double his counting statistics in MLB and maintain the same rate statistics.

Here is a list of Ichiro's comparables, through age 32, with adjustment for his career in Japan, with LADOPS figures for the career leadoff hitters. The LADOPS Index is park and league-adjusted.

Player	AB	H	HR	W	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLUG	OPS+	LADOPS	LADOPS Index
Ichiro!	8192	2708	122	560	768	470	116	.331	.376	.438	119	.793	110
Brock	6208	1808	122	434	1162	502	160	.291	.340	.431	114	.741	106
Raines	6405	1923	108	939	679	730	127	.297	.386	.426	128	.799	115
Molitor	5828	1751	119	568	703	344	98	.300	.362	.435	121	.772	113
Clemente	7133	2238	166	421	900	73	40	.314	.352	.463	122

Will he go into the Hall of Fame? Of course. He has the seasonal hits record, a glorious batting average and historical significance by virtue of his successful transition from Japanese baseball to MLB. He wasn't the first, but he was the one who made it perfectly clear that there were many players in Japan who were of comparable abiility to MLB players.

Should he go into the Hall of Fame? Yes. Ichiro's qualities as a hitter are considered to be overrated by many analysts. It is true that he has not been as good as Raines as a hitter, but he has been better than Brock and almost as good as Molitor. If one takes into account his defensive ability and his durability, though, he fits in easily in the Raines/Molitor class. The comparison with Clemente is interesting, and may become more interesting if Ichiro adds power, as he may. For now, Ichiro has the advantage in speed and durability, while Clemente has it in power (and a little bit on defence), but it's not a gross mismatch. Their iconic status in Japan and Latin America respectively and their physical stature makes the comparison quite striking.

Ichiro is not the player that Barry Bonds has been, as Clemente was not the player that Willie Mays was. That does not mean that we cannot appreciate them for the great players that they have been.

Next up: Alfonso Soriano

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