Pinch Hit: Phillips vs. Morneau

Wednesday, October 25 2006 @ 12:37 AM EDT

Here's an article by intrepid correspondent Callum Hughson. Imagine how much you'd like it if I had any idea how to format these things.

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During a random trip to my local library I came across a recent baseball book by Toronto Sun columnist Bob Elliott, titled The Northern Game. I checked it out and gave it a read. The main point of interest for me was the appendix. Here, Elliott asked Canadian baseball experts from all over the nation for lists of the greatest provincial and national baseball players of all-time. Taking the honours at first base was a late 1800s ballplayer named Bill Phillips. Now I can’t tell you all that much about Phillips, other than he was born in Saint John, New Brunswick, that he began his career at 22 and that he played during some of the early tumultuous years of professional baseball. Like most modern Canadian baseball fans would, I scanned my brain to come up with another choice. The most logical was Justin Morneau. As we all know, Justin has had a very short major league career. But after sifting through the data, I came to the conclusion that even if Morneau retired today, he should still be considered the number one Canadian first baseman of all-time. Here’s how I came to that conclusion.

First off, when modern day players with gaudy stats are mentioned against players of an earlier era, many will reply that overall batting statistics were far lower during this era. Is this true? Definitely. When this is the case than we need to delve further into the individual players statistics. Today, we are going to compare the two players in three different fashions, Win Shares, Defensive Range Factor, and individual performance against that of their peers.

Win Shares

Bill Phillips Career Win Shares

To be fair, the Win Shares system is drastically skewed towards pitching in the 1800s, with the top ranked pitcher accumulating around 50 Win Shares per season. In today’s baseball climate of five-man rotations, pitch counts and bullpen specialization the top pitcher usually ends up with about 25 Win Shares. That’s why this is only one of three criteria.

Phillips’s top season was in 1886, with 18 win shares, but outside of 1885 and 1886, Phillips was essentially a 10-WS-per-season type of player.

Justin Morneau Career Win Shares

Year	Win Shares
2003	1
2004	10
2005	8
2006	27
Total	46

Morneau, at age 25, has 46 career win shares. Taking an extremely conservative approach, let’s assume that Morneau experiences a drastic decline in production and produces at a rate that is slightly above that of Ty Wigginton’s 2006 production (14 win shares), and assign him 15 win shares a season for the next four years. Well, in this drastic example, Morneau will tie Phillips in four seasons and overpass him by the time he’s 30. Now I, like many, do not predict such a drastic decline for Justin. In fact, the accepted baseball prime age begins at 27, so the best years for Morneau may in front of him. Either way, Morneau takes this round.

Defensive Range Factor

Strong defensive play from the first base position was a greater part of 1800s baseball than it is of today’s. But we can still look at range factor to determine how each player performed defensively against their peers. Below is a table that lists each player’s career range factor, the league average range factor during their playing years, and the overall performance against this average.

As you can see, during Phillips playing time in the late 1800’s, first baseman had to field considerably more chances than today’s players. While his career number is higher, he only posted a range factor that 2% greater than league average. Conversely, Morneau’s range factor is 15% better than league average! In fact, Morneau’s career range factor differential (1.05) is similar to that of two highly regarded first baseman of the 1980’s, Keith Hernandez (1.22) & Don Mattingly (0.92). Morneau wins this round and goes up 2-0.

Performance Against Peers

This table compares each player’s statistics against league averages during their respective careers.

As you can see, Phillips had a career OPS that was 0.29 points greater than the league average. But Morneau’s career average is .70 points greater than league average. Remember, this includes Morneau’s poor 2005 campaign. This season his OPS was a staggering .163 points better than league average! Justin also receives this point, and shuts out Bill Phillips 3-0.

Now back to my statement that he should be crowned the number one Canadian first baseman of all-time, even if he retires today… I think the argument can be summed up like this. Bill Phillips was an above average player during his playing career. Justin Morneau, on the other hand, has proven in two of his three major league seasons that he isn’t merely above average, but exemplary. On top of this, Morneau is still two years short of his expected peak. This indicates that Morneau is the better player, and should be considered the best Canadian-born first baseman ever.

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This article was written by Callum Hughson of mopupduty.com, a blog hosted by four lifelong baseball fans.

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