Do we really need special tools for evaulating career leadoff hitters?
In one sense, we do not. Leadoff hitters do the same things that other
batters do. They get on base or not. They steal bases or not. They
advance from first to third on a single or not. They drive in runners
on base or not. The difference is that they have a significantly
different ratio of opportunites to do each of these things than hitters
in other places in the batting order. That may justify the use of
different tools to evaluate them. I will let the reader be the judge of
that.
The standard methods of evaluating hitters differ in their weighting of
the two major elements of offensive production- getting on base and
driving in baserunners (including oneself through the homer). These two
elements are represented numerically, of course, by on-base percentage
and slugging percentage. OPS and OPS+ treat the two elements as of
equal weight. Equivalent Runs (EqR) treats the ability to get on-base
as 1 and 1/2 times as important as the ability to drive in runners.
Gross Production Average (GPA) weights them at 1.8 to 1. None of the
methods, however, attaches different weights to different batting order
positions. In general terms, this makes sense. The differences between
a #4 hitter and #5 hitter, or a #6 and #8 hitter, are not large, and it
is true that batters often bat in different spots in the order over the
course of a season.
To evaluate career leadoff hitters though,
we must acknowledge that the ability to get on base is much more
important than the ability to drive in runners. The technically correct
weighting will differ depending on the league due to the DH. In the
National League, leadoff hitters lead off an inning grossly
disproportionately because of the presence of the pitcher in the 9
slot. Pitchers disproportionately make outs and #8 hitters are
consequently commonly pitched around in the National League. In the
American League, leadoff hitters lead off innings less often, but still
more than any other batting order position.
So, what to do? I
have chosen to do a rough weighting of two times on-base percentage
plus slugging percentage, but multiplied the result by 2/3 to give a
similar scale to OPS. We'll call it LADOPS (Leadoff ADjusted On-Base
Plus Slugging). The other aspect of being a leadoff hitter that has
additional significance is speed and the ability to steal bases. We
will use the very crude measures of SB success rate and SB/game to
measure these attributes. We will also compare the players LADOPS with
the park-adjusted league LADOPS (courtesy of BBRef.com) to generate an
index of on-base plus slugging performance for leadoff hitters,
adjusted for park and league.
So, what does an excellent season
for a leadoff hitter look like by these measures? We'll use Craig
Biggio's 1997 season, Lenny Dykstra's 1993 season, and Rickey
Henderson's 1990 season, as well as Rickey's 1985 season, Tim Raines'
1985 season and Wade Boggs' 1987 season as markers. Here's the table:
| Player | PAs | LADOPS | Lg. LADOPS | Index | SB success rate | SB/G |
| Biggio 97 | 744 | .887 | .727 | 122 | .82 | .29 |
| Dykstra 93 | 773 | .881 | .721 | 122 | .75 | .23 |
| Henderson 90 | 594 | .969 | .683 | 142 | .86 | .48 |
| Henderson 85 | 654 | .903 | .700 | 129 | .88 | .56 |
| Raines 85 | 665 | .856 | .678 | 126 | .88 | .47 |
| Boggs 87 | 667 | 1.066 | .736 | 145 | .33 | .01 |
| Player | PAs | LADOPS | Lg. LADOPS | Index | SB Success % | SB/game |
| Bobby Bonds | 8090 | .784 | .696 | 113 | .73 | .21 |
| Ashburn | 9736 | .783 | .723 | 108 | .66 | .11 |
| Brock | 11235 | .731 | .700 | 104 | .75 | .36 |
| Henderson | 13346 | .814 | .703 | 116 | .80 | .46 |
| Raines | 10389 | .797 | .707 | 113 | .84 | .32 |
| Boggs | 10740 | .848 | .725 | 117 | .41 | .01 |
| Molitor | 12160 | .791 | .713 | 111 | .79 | .19 |
| Biggio | 11948 | .780 | .725 | 108 | .77 | .15 |
https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20061009123008788