2006 Post-Season Top 30 Prospects- #10-#1

Wednesday, September 27 2006 @ 07:28 AM EDT

Monday, we took a look at Prospects #30-#21 in the Blue Jay farm system. Yesterday, it was #20-#11. Now, we get to the part you've all been waiting for.

The top 10 classic rock songs of all time are...Never mind. There was not much debate among the minor league crew about the best of the best in the Jay system, with one exception. Who is the better Romero, Ricky or Davis? We enlisted ouija boards, oracles and Jordan Furlong to assist us in resolving this difficult question. We are pleased to advise that with their assistance, no wars were fought and no bones were broken as we came to a decision.

Shaun Marcum, Casey Janssen, Dustin McGowan and Brandon League, mainstays from last year's top 10 list, are no longer eligible due to major league service time.

Ryan Patterson was taken a round behind Brian Pettway in the 2005 draft. You could read one player’s profile and mistake him for the other; both were senior corner outfielders with similar builds and scouting reports. Also, both ranked very highly in Pistol’s adjusted college stats. Now, they don’t seem so similar anymore.

Patterson tore up Low-A last year and continued to hit this year, leading the Florida State League in slugging percentage. The most memorable night was his 6-6 performance, where he had 5 extra-base hits, 3 homers and 17 total bases. Patterson struggled upon reaching New Hampshire, striking out in over one-quarter of his at-bats and not showing the same extra-base power he did in the low minors. There were positive signs though, as Patterson kept his plate discipline constant, although it still could be improved. More importantly, Patterson struggled in his first month in New Hampshire, but put up an OPS over .830 from thereon in. He finished the season with 25 homers, second in the system to Chip Cannon. Ideally he’ll spend another half-season in Double-A and then move up to Syracuse before the end of next season.(T)

When someone wants to criticize J.P.’s drafting the first name they usually mention is Russ Adams. Well, it may not be too long before the first name a defender trots out is Jesse Litsch. Over two seasons this 24th round draft pick has worked his way onto a top 10 prospect list that is otherwise occupied by amateur free agents and draftees from the first four rounds. Some may point to it as more proof the Jays should be looking more closely at high school and JuCo players, but Litsch has already exceeded everyone’s expectations by making a dozen starts in Double-A in his second minor league season.

Litsch is a sinker/slider pitcher who had a GB:FB ratio of 2:1 at New Hampshire and it was even larger at Dunedin. Litsch has a lot of positives in his peripherals. He doesn’t allow many homers, he gets a fair number of strikeouts and his control is good. However, at three of the four levels he’s pitched at Litsch has allowed more hits than innings pitched.

I’ve spent several minor league reviews speculating about Litsch’s hits allowed totals. Although we’re dealing with small sample sizes, Litsch has always allowed more hits than you’d expect (or want) a promising pitching prospect to have surrendered. As Mike Green pointed out, Litsch actually doesn’t surrender an inordinate amount of line drives (only about 12% of BIP at Dunedin; about 17% at New Hampshire), so his opponents’ BABIP might be a product of his defence and not a negative mark against Litsch as a pitcher. However, the only study I know of on minor leaguer pitchers and BABIP was done by Clay Davenport and he concluded that pitchers who make the majors were slightly, but consistently, better than those who didn’t at preventing hits on balls in play. It’s not something to get too worried about, as Litsch is young, talented and all of his other numbers are promising. Anytime a 24th-round pick appears on a top prospect list only two years after he was drafted you know you have something to get excited about. (T)

Cheng spent a second year in Lansing, consolidating his gains and further establishing himself as an intriguing prospect. The curve-balling strikeout artist gave up an extra hit per 9 frames in 2006, something he was happy to do in conjunction with slashing his already stingy home run rate and putting a dent in his biggest weakness: the base on balls. Digging further into his ratios reveals nearly half of balls in play against him being grounders (49.5%) and an outstanding 10.7% line drive rate – that’s 5 points lower than major league leaders Derek Lowe and Randy Johnson.

Cheng also does an excellent job of holding on runners, and picking off more than his share. It is not surprising, then, that he fared better with runners on base than with the bases clear. Opponents hit .216/.302/.289 this year when runners were on base. That will do wonders for the ERA.

ETA (Estimated Toronto Arrival) is September, 2008. (JG)

David Purcey is a left-handed pitcher with great "stuff", probably the best pitches of any pitcher on this top 30 list. But David has problems with his delivery, leading to poor command, and a drop to number 7 on our list. Purcey has great potential because he is a lefty, his pitches have movement, most particularly his breaking pitches, which are knee-buckling. These characteristics get a pitcher rated highly by Baseball America and Batter's Box. However Purcey has a tendency to drop his elbow on his delivery and lose the feel for his pitches resulting in walks (82 in 140 innings pitched); hit batters (14) and wild pitches (8). The Jays will have to decide whether to leave David to work though his inconsistent delivery or whether to rework his delivery, Halladay style, to improve his control.(G)

He has been used as a swingman in the minors, throwing 120-130 innings each of the last 2 years. He is likely to have a shot at a relief role on the big club in 2007, but whether that will be his limit is a matter for discussion. Time will tell.(MG)

After two innings in Auburn, Romero spent the rest of last year in Dunedin, putting up decent numbers, but nothing that made a distinct impression. This year, after taking April off, Romero made ten starts for Dunedin with strong peripherals. He was promoted to New Hampshire for July and August, where his numbers suffered and his ERA ballooned. If you’re a subscriber of the “adjustment period” theory, then Romero’s monthly splits are a good sign. He had a 7.75 ERA in July and a 2.45 ERA in August. His peripherals showed similar disparity, as he gave up more than one hit an inning in July and less than one an inning in August; he walked more than he struck out in July and his K:BB ratio was greater than 2:1 in August and he gave up 6 of his 7 homers in July.

I don’t think Romero’s numbers are a huge cause for concern. The debate with Romero was never about his ability to reach the major leagues. Obviously he’s not a sure thing – no one is – but he was universally considered to be the closest to a sure thing (for a non-reliever, anyway) available in the slot the Jays drafted. The debate with Romero always concerned his upside and this year didn’t settle that question. Romero was good in Single-A, but not dominant. I think his monthly splits are at least as much about adjustment as they are random monthly performance, but even so, six good starts at Double-A for a 6th overall pick don’t mean much.

Also, at both levels Romero recorded more flyball outs to the center fielder than to the other two outfielders combined. The only other pitcher to do that at New Hampshire was Jesse Litsch and the only one at Dunedin was Yesson Berroa, although Orlando Trias came close. I don’t know what it means (probably little to nothing), but I thought it was interesting. (T)

Thigpen started the year at AA and spent four months there before being promoted to Syracuse for the last few weeks of the season. Thigpen hit .259 at AA with excellent plate discipline, 52 walks and 61 K's. The walks and doubles power (25 in 87 games) generated a .791 OPS at AA, a .370 OBP and a .421 SLG. Thigpen has a short sharp stroke and as a result hits the ball to all fields. Thigpen's defense has improved significantly and he has developed from being the backup catcher in college to being the best defensive catcher in the Eastern League according to Baseball America.

Thus far in his professional career Thigpen has shown he is a quick learner so it would be a mistake to bet against him. Thigpen will spend 2007 in AAA and potentially help the Jays in 2008.(G)

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