The best start of Kyle Snyder's still-promising career runs the Jays' losing streak to five.
According to Game Scores, Snyder's outing (a 79, easily a career high) was the fourth-best performance against the Jays this year. The big righty got into the heads of the Jays’ hitters with his lollipop curveball, racking up 8 strikeouts over 7 two-hit shutout innings.
It certainly seems like the Jays have a tendency to get stymied by righthanded pitchers with mediocre statistics. However, that's an unscientific claim, and I hate making those, so let's test it by unleashing...
A Data Table
This table consists of the Game Scores for the Jays' opposing starting pitchers in each of their 135 games so far this year. In case you are unfamiliar with Game Scores or need a reminder, here is the Game Score Formula, stolen directly from a Magpie Opus:
Start with 50 points.
Add 1 point for each out recorded.
Add 2 points for each inning completed after the 4th.
Add 1 point for each strikeout.
Subtract 2 points for each hit allowed.
Subtract 4 points for each earned run allowed.
Subtract 2 points for each unearned run allowed.
Subtract 1 point for each walk.
The W/L column indicates whether the Jays (not the pitcher's team!) won each game.
There is also a hastily-made-up-on-a-whim stat, which I call Overachievement Index, which reflects how the pitcher's performance in that one particular game stacks up against his season to date. This is given by GS^1.4 / ERA+ * 4.43. ERA+ is taken from the Hardball Times, with its beautiful cumulative park factors. There is no reason for the 1.4 other than that I fiddled with powers for a while and found that it gave nice results that seem to jive with ESPN's erratically kept but potentially very useful Average Game Scores. (If the power is 1, the formula expects way too much of pitchers; a Mike Mussina 67 was deemed a roughly average performance.) The 4.43 is a magic coefficient that ensures that a 100 ERA+ pitcher who gets a 48 Game Score receives a 10 Overachievement Index.
10 is the average Overachievement Index. Anything over 11 means a solidly above-average start relative to the pitcher's 2006 stats; under 9, and he got hit a bit harder than usual. Anything in between usually means a par-for-the-course outing.
ERA+ is not the best stat to use - Average Game Scores would be better - but the only site I know of that tracks that is ESPN, and it thinks Chris Carpenter is in the 30s in AGS, and I don't particularly feel like hammering out 100 of those manually, so ERA+ it is.
ERA+ figures for pitchers who have switched teams (eg: Jeff Weaver, Sidney Ponson, Adam Bernero) are rough estimates.
Here it is:
Gm Tm Pitcher T GS ERA+ OVER
127 OAK Voldemort R 86 L
94 24.1
110 CHW Vazquez R 85 L 93 23.9
123 BAL Cabrera R 85 L 94 23.7
135 BOS Snyder R 79 L 76 26.4
132 CLE Sabathia L 77 L 135 14.4
129 KC R. Hernandez R 76 L 66 28.8
107 NYY Wang R 74 L 123 14.9
29 ANA Escobar R 72 L 117 15.1
121 TB Kazmir L 70 W 138 12.3
118 MIN Radke R 69 L 103 16.1
113 BAL Cabrera R 67 L 94 17.0
67 FLA
Olsen* L 67 L 100 16.0
14 NYY Mussina R 67 L 125 12.8
35 TB McClung R 66 L 69 22.6
11 CHW Buehrle L 66 L 99 15.8
82 TEX
Rheinecker L 65 L 81 18.9
7 BOS Beckett R 65 L 92 16.6
56 BAL Cabrera R 65 L 94 16.3
48 CHW Contreras R 65 W 109 14.0
85 KC Redman L 64 L 81
18.5
20 BAL Benson R 64 L 93 16.1
27 BOS Clement R 63 L 71 20.6
108 NYY Lidle R 63 L 105 13.9
30 ANA Lackey R 63 W 122 12.0
122 BAL Benson R 62 L 93 15.4
120 TB Shields R 62 L 97 14.8
102 OAK Blanton R 62 L 102 14.0
68 FLA
Moehler* R 60 L 70 19.5
73 NYM Glavine L 60 L 112 12.2
86 KC L. Hudson R 59 L 79 16.9
61 DET Miner R 59 L 97
13.8
84 TEX
Padilla R 59 L 118 11.3
32 OAK Haren R 59 L 119 11.2
42 COL
Francis* L 59 L 125 10.7
23 NYY Mussina R 59 L 125 10.7
94 TEX
Millwood R 58 L 106 12.3
83 TEX
Koronka L 57 W 86 14.8
105 OAK Komine R 57 L 90 14.1
106 NYY Wright R 57 L 98 13.0
38 ANA E. Santana R 57 L 102 12.5
93 TEX
Padilla R 57 L 118 10.8
6 TB Kazmir L 57 L 138
9.2
58 BAL Benson R 56 W 93 13.3
72 ATL H. Ramirez* L 55 W 99 12.2
60 DET Bonderman R 55 W 111 10.9
95 NYY Mussina R 55 W 125 9.7
76 WAS Ramon Ortiz R 54 W 80 14.7
25 BAL Benson R 53 L 93 12.4
63 BAL Benson R 53 L 93 12.4
66 BAL Cabrera R 53 W 94 12.2
89 SEA Meche R 52 L 95
11.8
119 TB Seo R 51
W 90 12.1
114 BAL Bedard L 50 W 113 9.4
40 ANA Lackey R 50 W 122 8.7
15 BOS Beckett R 49 W 92 11.2
91 SEA F. Hernandez R 49 W 95 10.8
36 TB Hendrickson L 49 W 100 10.3
24 BAL Bedard L 49 W 113 9.1
117 MIN Bonser R 48 W 89 11.2
45 TB Hendrickson L 48 W 100 10.0
80 PHI Lidle R 48 W 105
9.5
69 FLA
J. Johnson* R 48 L 148 6.8
43 COL
Fogg* R 47 L 85 11.4
54 TB Hendrickson L 47 W 100 9.7
133 CLE Sowers L 47 L 127 7.6
17 BOS Clement R 46 L 71 13.3
18 BAL R. Lopez R 46 W 72 13.1
109 CHW Garland
R 46 L 104 9.1
62 DET N. Robertson L 46 L 110 8.6
55 TB Waechter R 45 L 67 13.6
41 COL
Cook* R 45 L 114 8.0
99 SEA Pineiro R 44 L 70 12.6
126 OAK Halsey L 44 W 97 9.1
57 BAL Bedard L 44 W 113 7.8
39 ANA Escobar R 44 W 117 7.6
104 OAK Zito L 44 L 127
7.0
70 ATL Sosa* R 42 W
90 9.2
71 ATL T. Hudson* R 42 W 91 9.1
12 CHW Garcia R 42 W 92
9.0
2 MIN Radke R 42 L 103
8.1
44 TB McClung R 41 W 69 11.6
37 TB Fossum L 40 W
84 9.2
26 BOS Beckett R 40 W 92 8.4
49 CHW Garland
R 40 L 104 7.4
111 CHW Contreras R 40 W 109 7.1
53 TB McClung R 39 W 69 10.8
115 MIN Silva R 38 W 71 10.2
75 NYM Trachsel R 38 L 88 8.2
103 OAK Voldemort R 38 W 94 7.7
5 TB Waechter R 37 W 67 10.4
31 ANA Jeff Weaver R 37 W 70 9.9
3 MIN Silva R 37 W
71 9.8
101 SEA Moyer L 37 L 78
8.9
134 BOS Tavarez R 37 L 95 7.3
131 CLE Byrd R 36 L
92 7.3
97 NYY Wang R 36 L
123 5.4
81 PHI Fultz L 35 L
94 6.8
21 NYY Wright R 35 W 98
6.6
1 MIN J. Santana L 35 W 156 4.1
64 BAL Loewen L 34 W 80
7.7
77 WAS Hill R 34 W
91 6.8
124 BAL Bedard L 32 W 113 5.0
46 TB Fossum L 30 L
84 6.2
128 KC L. Hudson
R 29 W 79 6.3
22 NYY R. Johnson L 29 L 91 5.4
10 CHW Vazquez R 29 W 93 5.3
90 SEA Moyer L 28 W
78 6.0
4 TB Fossum L 28 L
84 5.6
19 BAL Bedard L 28 W 92
5.1
47 CHW Garcia R 28 W 92
5.1
59 BAL Loewen L 27 L 80
5.6
78 WAS Patterson* R 27 W 96 4.7
33 OAK Blanton R 26 W 102 4.2
88 KC Gobble L 26 W 102
4.2
98 NYY Ponson R 25 W 60
6.7
130 KC Odalis Perez L 24 W 77 4.9
74 NYM O. Hernandez R 24 W 91 4.2
96 NYY Wright R 24 W 98
3.9
34 OAK Saarloos R 23 W 101 3.5
51 BOS Beckett R 22 W 92 3.6
65 BAL R. Lopez R 21 W 72 4.4
87 KC Elarton R 21 W 83
3.8
50 BOS Clement R 20 W 71 4.1
28 ANA E. Santana R 20 W 102 2.9
52 BOS Pauley R 17 L 59
4.0
100 SEA Meche R 16 W 95
2.3
9 BOS Clement R 15 W 71 2.8
112 BAL Russ Ortiz R 14 W 46 3.9
116 MIN Garza R 14 W 91
2.0
13 NYY R. Johnson L 14 W 91 2.0
8 BOS Wells L 14 W
94 1.9
125 OAK Haren R 13 L 119 1.3
16 BOS DiNardo L 11 W 66 1.9
79 PHI Bernero R 8 W 80
1.0
92 TEX
Koronka L 4 W 86 0.4
- Average Game Score: 45.1
- Average LHP: 43.2; average RHP: 46.3; no surprises there. There is a gaggle of pretty decent lefties in the low 30s (including one J. Santana), as well as a flock of very good southpaws who have been held around 50. The Jays have also saved some of their nastiest beatings for some of the weakest lefties they've seen: Boomer, DiNardo and Koronka. There are a few lefties who look out of place near the top of the list - Rheinecker, Redman and Koronka - but those performances took place after Alex Rios' awful injury. If Rios doesn't fully recover from his injury, the Jays might be shut down by a few more Infuriating Finesse Lefties than they'd like in 2007.
- Jays vs LHP: .296/.362/.458/.821 (#2 OBP, #1 OPS); vs RHP: .280/.344/.466/.810 (#7 OBP, #4 OPS)
- Average Overachievement: 10.1
- Average LHP: 9.0; average RHP: 10.7. So (keeping in mind the usual sample size caveats), it looks like... this doesn’t tell us a whole lot, given how other stats quite clearly bear out how the Jays have been a very good hitting team against lefties and a very average one against righties. Perhaps they're just running into underachievers and emerging rookies in the small sample, pitchers who would play the Jays (and subsequent opponents) tougher than they would their previous opponents, and there is an opposite effect at play with the lefties. I doubt it, but it's a possibility.
- Average RHP ERA+: 93.2; average LHP ERA+: 106. In hindsight, the overachievement formula is probably still too harsh on superior pitchers and too kind to replacement-level types; a Matt Clement 63 sent it into fits of passion. So it thinks just like Joe Fan.
- 8 highest overachievers: Runelvys, Snyder, Lord Voldemort, Vazquez, Cabrera, McClung, Clement, Moehler, all righties.
- And 9 of the top 10 pitching performances against the Jays have come in the last 31 days.
https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20060902041259435