Wells Says Thanks, But No Thanks

Friday, August 18 2006 @ 07:10 PM EDT

Keith Law reported on his ESPN.com blog that Vernon Wells has informed the Jays that he has 'no intention of signing a contract extension to stay in Toronto'.

This of course leaves the Jays a decision to make. Keep Wells for next year and pick up draft picks when he leaves or trade him in this offseason.

I have a hard time seeing how keeping Wells for 2007 is the ideal choice if he is unwilling to sign an extension. To do that you'd have to say that you have an excellent chance at postseason success and at this point I don't see how the Jays have an excellent chance. There's a chance that could happen - just like the Tigers this year or White Sox last year jumped up unexpectantly the past couple years - but I don't think that chance is greater than, say, 25%, especially with the uncertainty of the starting rotation.

The other reason to hold on to Wells are the draft picks that the Jays would get when Wells left. However, with the two picks the Jays won't get a pick better than #16. At that point in the draft it's about 50/50 whether you get a major league player, and if you do it'll be several years down the road. And if you're lucky it'll be a player that's 75% of what Wells is.

Given that I think the Jays are almost forced to trade Wells. However, trading Wells isn't the worst thing in the world for the following reasons:

1. Wells is a young, power hitting, gold glove center fielder making 50% of what he's worth in 2007 (and for all the hand wringing over Hinske's deal the Jays have gained more back on Wells than they lost with Hinske).
2. There's probably at least a handful of teams that would be interested in Wells, would be able to pay him, and would have enough to offer the Jays. The Astros, Rangers, White Sox, Dodgers and Angels come to mind at first glance.
   
3. The Jays have Rios who played CF in the minors and would be a fine replacement. A combination of Johnson, Cat, and Lind could fill the other two slots. Another 4th OF type would probably be needed as well (especially if one OF got significant DH time), but that's a minor piece.
4. Trading Wells would be the easiest way for the Jays to fix their biggest hole right now - starting pitching. Even if you assume Halladay and Burnett as givens you still have Lilly as a free agent, Chacin as a unknown, and a handful of young pitchers who may be starters, but none of whom you have great confidence in to be more than a 4/5 starter right now and could just as easily be 6/7 starters

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