It's Always Something

Saturday, August 05 2006 @ 01:20 PM EDT

Contributed by: Magpie

Don't cut my throat, I may want to do that later myself.
--Casey Stengel, to his barber

Well. Shall we begin the post-mortems now, or is it too early?

It really is too early, to be honest. Almost two months remain, and a lot can happen. The Los Angeles Dodgers, after losing 13 of 14 coming out of the All-Star Break, have suddenly ripped off seven wins in a row, which has put them back into the thick of things in the NL West. Of course, this is the NL West that we speak of - but what of the AL Wild Card? Minnesota righted their season in mid-June by winning 18 of 19 - they then put themselves squarely into the Wild Card hunt by winning 12 of 13 after the break. So... all things are still possible. Even now.

However... the Blue Jays are now on pace to finish third with an 85-77 record, which would be disappointing. (To me, as well - my prediction was 90-72, second place, no wild card.) What's gone wrong?

Unlike 2005, it doesn't look like bad luck. The Blue Jays are but one game below their expected Pythagoran record. (This year's big Pythagorean underachiever is Cleveland, who should be more or less even with Minnesota. )

This year, they've come up with a different problem. Want to guess what it might be? Here's a hint - how did they do on that last road trip?

If only Road Games counted... the Blue Jays would be in an awful lot of trouble.

                  W    L    PCT.     RUNS    RA
 1 Detroit       39    19    0.672    323    223
 2 NY Yankees    28    22    0.560    281    255
 3 Chicago Sox   29    24    0.547    301    283
 4 Texas         29    24    0.547    283    245
 5 LA Angels     30    26    0.536    305    271
 6 Boston        29    26    0.527    303    285
 7 Oakland       29    26    0.527    252    248
 8 Seattle       25    28    0.472    262    241
 9 Minnesota     23    30    0.434    229    262
10 Toronto       22    30    0.423    239    283
11 Cleveland     21    31    0.404    283    272
12 Baltimore     20    31    0.392    222    305
13 Tampa Bay     18    39    0.316    240    316
14 Kansas City   15    40    0.273    211    334

Luckily, for the Jays and Twins in particular, everybody gets to play half their games at home.

                  W     L    PCT.    RUNS    RA
 1 Minnesota     39    15    0.722    312    223
 2 Boston        35    17    0.673    289    245
 3 Detroit       33    17    0.660    245    204
 4 NY Yankees    36    19    0.655    309    239
 5 Chicago Sox   34    19    0.642    305    236
 6 Toronto       35    21    0.625    330    249
 7 Oakland       28    25    0.528    228    233
 8 Seattle       28    26    0.519    244    256
 9 Tampa Bay     27    25    0.519    242    275
10 Baltimore     29    29    0.500    307    308
11 LA Angels     25    27    0.481    219    234
12 Cleveland     26    29    0.473    302    281
13 Texas         26    30    0.464    273    289
14 Kansas City   23    30    0.434    282    305

The Blue Jays have played .625 ball at home, and .423 ball on the road. It really is an enormous difference - only the Twins have a significantly larger home-road split. In fact, since moving into the Dome in 1989, no Blue Jays team has had such a large a home-road split as this year's crew. Some Jays teams have actually played significantly better on the road than at home (2003 and 1999 in particular.)

Minnesota, of course, has done this sort of thing before. In 1987, the Twins went 56-25 (.691) at home, and just 29-52 (.358) on the road. They then went undefeated in six home post-season games (they were 2-4 on the road) en route to a World Series championship. Since moving into the HubieDome in 1982, the Twins have played .531 ball at home, and just .436 on the road. The home-road split is .095. Toronto has played .533 ball at home since 1989 and .481 ball on the road for a home-road split of .052.

So what happens to the Jays when they leave home?

Two things. They don't hit nearly as well. And they don't pitch nearly as well. Aside from that, they seem pretty much the same.

They don't hit nearly as well. At the RC, the Jays are scoring 5.89 runs per game. It's the best offense in the league. But on the road, they're scoring just 4.6 runs per game, 10th best in the league. They maintain just 78% of their offensive production away from home - only Minnesota and Kansas City lose as much from the attack. So that's an issue, and let's see if we can figure out why:

HOME               G   AB   R   H   2B 3B HR   TB  RBI   BB   SO  SB  CS   BA    OBP   SLG  
Vernon Wells      52  204  38  68  14   3 20  148   49   20   29   3   2  .333  .390  .725  
Alex Rios         40  136  27  47   9   0 10   86   30   15   22   7   3  .346  .408  .632  
Reed Johnson      47  148  37  53  15   2  3   81   20   11   23   3   0  .358  .435  .547  
Lyle Overbay      54  211  36  66  16   1 13  123   40   18   37   1   1  .313  .368  .583  
Troy Glaus        52  196  39  51  11   0 19  119   46   25   48   2   0  .260  .344  .607  
Eric Hinske       35   95  20  26   5   2  6   53   17   15   21   0   1  .274  .373  .558  
Frank Catalanotto 47  157  22  54  12   0  2   72   28   24   14   0   2  .344  .433  .459  
Gregg Zaun        32   94  13  24   4   0  6   46   15   15   16   0   1  .255  .357  .489  
Shea Hillenbrand  42  154  21  49   7   1  5   73   18    6   21   1   1  .318  .345  .474  
Chad Mottola       6    9   3   3   1   0  0    4    0    0    3   0   0  .333  .333  .444  
Bengie Molina     40  150  16  43   8   0  6   69   18    4   16   0   0  .287  .314  .460  
Aaron Hill        54  193  31  56  14   2  2   80   12   13   23   1   0  .290  .340  .415  
Luis Figueroa      5    4   1   1   1   0  0    2    0    0    2   0   0  .250  .250  .500  
Russ Adams        36  108  15  23   7   0  2   36   14    6   22   1   0  .213  .254  .333  
John McDonald     30   64  10  13   1   1  1   19    5    4    8   4   1  .203  .254  .297  
Edgardo Alfonzo    6   18   0   2   1   0  0    3    3    2    1   0   0  .111  .238  .167  
Jason Phillips     4    6   1   1   0   0  0    1    2    0    0   0   0  .167  .167  .167  
TOTAL             56 1947 330 580 126  12 95 1015  317  178  306  23  12  .298  .361  .521

Get 'em on the road, and this happens:

AWAY               G   AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR  TB  RBI   BB   SO  SB  CS    BA   OBP   SLG  
Reed Johnson      40  139  30  48  11   0  4   71   11   13   15   5   1  .345  .428  .511  
Eric Hinske       36   83  13  24   4   0  6   46   12    8   22   0   0  .289  .352  .554  
Troy Glaus        49  173  35  46  10   0  9   83   34   37   45   1   2  .266  .397  .480  
Vernon Wells      49  195  23  60  13   1  6   93   29   22   30   8   1  .308  .377  .477  
Frank Catalanotto 41  126  17  35   8   1  5   60   19   18    9   0   1  .278  .372  .476  
Alex Rios         38  158  21  48  11   2  5   78   25    9   32   3   2  .304  .341  .494  
Shea Hillenbrand  39  142  19  40   8   0  7   69   21    8   19   0   1  .282  .338  .486  
Gregg Zaun        31   91   9  26   8   0  1   37    9   15   13   0   0  .286  .383  .407  
Aaron Hill        49  168  17  52   7   1  0   61   20   14   20   2   1  .310  .371  .363  
Lyle Overbay      50  190  18  53  11   0  3   73   22   19   33   1   1  .279  .346  .384  
Bengie Molina     36  131  10  35   4   0  2   45    9   11   13   0   1  .267  .319  .344  
John McDonald     27   69  10  18   2   0  1   23    7    5    7   2   0  .261  .320  .333  
Russ Adams        30   94  11  22   4   1  1   31   11    9   10   0   1  .234  .301  .330  
Edgardo Alfonzo    6   19   4   4   0   0  0    4    1    3    0   0   0  .211  .318  .211  
Chad Mottola       4    7   0   1   1   0  0    2    0    0    0   0   0  .143  .143  .286  
Ryan Roberts       3    6   1   1   0   0  1    4    1    0    1   0   0  .167  .167  .667  
Josh Towers        2    5   1   1   0   0  0    1    0    0    1   0   0  .200  .200  .200  
Luis Figueroa      3    5   0   0   0   0  0    0    0    0    0   0   0  .000  .000  .000  
Jason Phillips     3    4   0   0   0   0  0    0    0    0    0   0   0  .000  .000  .000  
A.J. Burnett       1    3   0   0   0   0  0    0    0    0    1   0   0  .000  .000  .000  
Roy Halladay       1    3   0   0   0   0  0    0    0    0    2   0   0  .000  .000  .000  
Ted Lilly          2    3   0   0   0   0  0    0    0    0    1   0   0  .000  .000  .000  
Ty Taubenheim      3    3   0   1   0   0  0    1    0    0    2   0   0  .333  .333  .333  
Casey Janssen      1    1   0   0   0   0  0    0    0    0    1   0   0  .000  .000  .000  
Francisco Rosario  3    1   0   0   0   0  0    0    0    0    0   0   0  .000  .000  .000  
TOTAL             52 1819 239 515 102   6 51  782  231  191  277  22  12  .283  .356  .430

Hey, where did all the home runs go? Vernon Wells has hit 20 HRs at home, just 6 on the road. Troy Glaus has 19 at home, 9 on the road. Lyle Overbay has hit 13 at home, and just 3 on the road. The three of them have combined to hit 52 HRs at home, but just 18 on the road. (Friday night's game, in which Glaus hit two more dingers at the RC, is not included in these Data Tables, by the way.)

The Jays have hit 44 more HRs at home than they have on the road - that's the largest home/road split in the league. Yes, a bigger drop-off than Chicago (88 Hrs at home, 77 on the road.) Bigger than Texas (71 Hrs at home, 68 on the road.)

The team's batting average is down a little, but they're getting almost as many people on base - the big drop-off is in slugging percentage, and the bulk of that comes from losing almost half of their home-run production.

Now we all know that the RC is a hitter's park. We should expect some offensive drop-off. Granted, they've lost more offense than we would reasonably expect. But there is a more serious problem when they hit the road...

They play their home games in a hitter's park, but the Jays pitchers have allowed just 4.45 runs per game at home. Only four teams - Detroit, Minnesota, New York, and Oakland - have given up fewer runs at home. But on the road, they're getting the crap kicked out of them. The Jays are allowing 5.44 runs per game away from home. Tampa Bay, Baltimore, and Kansas City are the only teams giving up more runs away from home - which is no comfort at all. Those are three pretty crummy pitching staffs, which is why they give up lots of runs at home, too. But no AL team loses as much value from their pitching staff when they go on the road as the Blue Jays do. Check it out:

HOME                G  GS   W   L  Sv  Hld   IP     H   ER    R HR  BB   SO  K/9   WHIP   ERA
B.J. Ryan          25   0   1   0  11   0   31.0   17    4    4  1   5   44 12.77  0.71  1.16
Justin Speier      26   0   1   0   0  12   25.1   17    9    9  3   8   27  9.59  0.99  3.20
Roy Halladay       11  11   7   1   0   0   81.0   75   29   30  9   7   43  4.78  1.01  3.22
Ted Lilly          12  12   6   4   0   0   72.0   61   27   29 12  40   64  8.00  1.40  3.38
Shaun Marcum        5   2   1   0   0   0   13.0   13    5    5  1   6   10  6.92  1.46  3.46
A.J. Burnett        5   5   2   1   0   0   31.2   33   13   15  4   6   31  8.81  1.23  3.69
Brian Tallet       14   0   2   0   0   2   23.0   13   10   10  1  14   16  6.26  1.17  3.91
Casey Janssen       9   9   3   5   0   0   49.1   49   23   26  5  13   21  3.83  1.26  4.20
Vinnie Chulk       14   0   1   0   0   0   15.0   17    7    7  1   3   10  6.00  1.33  4.20
Scott Downs        22   2   3   1   0   0   29.2   29   14   16  4   9   24  7.28  1.28  4.25
Scott Schoeneweis  31   0   1   1   1  10   21.0   22   10   10  2   4   10  4.29  1.24  4.29
Jason Frasor       21   0   1   1   0   4   22.0   28   11   11  5   8   23  9.41  1.64  4.50
Ty Taubenheim       6   3   0   2   0   0   15.0   18    8    9  1   8   14  8.40  1.73  4.80
Pete Walker        12   0   0   1   1   2   16.0   17    9   10  3   6   18 10.13  1.44  5.06
Gustavo Chacin      7   7   5   0   0   0   36.0   38   22   22  7  15   17  4.25  1.47  5.50
Francisco Rosario   7   0   1   0   0   0    9.1    9    6    6  2   7    9  8.68  1.71  5.79
Brandon League      5   0   0   0   0   2    4.1    6    3    3  2   0    3  6.23  1.38  6.23
Dustin McGowan      3   0   0   0   0   1    2.2    5    2    3  0   3    3 10.13  3.00  6.75
Josh Towers         5   5   0   4   0   0   20.0   35   21   22  7   5   11  4.95  2.00  9.45
Jeremy Accardo      1   0   0   0   0   0    0.2    4    2    2  0   0    0  0.00  6.00 27.00
TOTAL              56  56  35  21  13  33  518.0  506  235  249 70 167  398  6.92  1.30  4.08

And here's the same crew on the road:

AWAY                G  GS   W   L  Sv  Hld   IP     H   ER    R HR  BB   SO  K/9   WHIP   ERA
Jeremy Accardo      4   0   0   0   0   0    6.0    4    0    0  0   2    3  4.50  1.00  0.00
B.J. Ryan          22   0   0   1  14   1   21.2   14    5    5  1  10   18  7.48  1.11  2.08
Brandon League      5   0   0   0   0   1    7.2    7    2    3  0   2    6  7.04  1.17  2.35
Justin Speier      22   0   0   0   0   9   16.2   18    5    6  1  11   18  9.72  1.74  2.70
Roy Halladay       11  11   6   1   0   0   75.2   75   24   27  3  13   44  5.23  1.16  2.85
Francisco Rosario   8   0   0   1   0   1   10.1    7    5    5  1   7    9  7.84  1.35  4.35
Ty Taubenheim       6   4   1   3   0   0   20.0   22   11   13  4  10   12  5.40  1.60  4.95
Scott Downs        20   1   2   0   0   1   22.1   22   13   14  3  16   18  7.25  1.70  5.24
Ted Lilly          10  10   3   6   0   0   54.1   64   32   35  8  20   47  7.79  1.55  5.30
Pete Walker        11   0   1   0   0   1   14.0   20    9   14  2   7    9  5.79  1.93  5.79
Gustavo Chacin      3   3   1   2   0   0   15.1   16   10   11  6   8   11  6.46  1.57  5.87
Casey Janssen      10   8   3   5   0   0   44.2   54   30   32  7   8   23  4.63  1.39  6.04
A.J. Burnett        5   5   0   4   0   0   26.0   34   18   22  5   5   22  7.62  1.50  6.23
Jason Frasor       12   0   1   0   0   5   11.0    7    8    8  1   6   11  9.00  1.18  6.55
Brian Tallet       14   0   1   0   0   0   12.0   17    9    9  3  10    9  6.75  2.25  6.75
Vinnie Chulk        6   0   0   0   0   1    9.0   12    7    9  3   2    8  8.00  1.56  7.00
Shaun Marcum        6   2   0   1   0   0   14.0   18   11   11  2  10   16 10.29  2.00  7.07
Josh Towers         7   7   1   5   0   0   34.1   51   34   35  9  10   18  4.72  1.78  8.91
Scott Schoeneweis  19   0   1   0   0   7   13.1   15   14   14  1   9    7  4.73  1.80  9.45
Dustin McGowan      4   1   1   1   0   0    7.1   10   10   10  1   9    8  9.82  2.59 12.27
TOTAL              52  52  22  30  14  27  435.2  487  257  283 61 175  317  6.55  1.52  5.31

I told Liam I was looking into the team's splits to try to figure out why they were so bad on the road. He said "The bullpen?" I said I was still crunching the numbers.

Having crunched them... pretty much the entire staff, with the exceptions of Halladay and Speier, have suffered when leaving the RC. The bullpen has been indeed a problem. Away from home, Downs, Schoeneweis, Frasor, Tallet, have all been terrible. BJ Ryan has been good on the road, and sensational at home. Justin Speier has actually been a little better on the road, and naturally he's pitched significantly more innings at home.

As for the starters... Doc has pitched a little better on the road than at home. That's not a huge surprise - moving from the turf to real grass is not going to hurt a groundball machine who throws strike. Ted Lilly and Casey Janssen have been much. much better at home, as has AJ Burnett in his limited action.

The overall problem? Walks and hits. Well, duh. The staff is giving up home runs at about the same rate at home and on the road - it's the base hits that are killing them. The opposition is hitting .281 in their own parks, and .254 in the RC. The staff is issuing 3.6 BB/ 9 on the road, and 2.9 BB/9 at home.

17 comments

https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20060805024017223