With today marking the MLB trading deadline
the Jays are stuck between the proverbial rock and hard place, as one of my
high school teachers used to say. The Jays have three conceivable options: to
go for it, to retool for the future or to stand pat. Those are slightly
dramatic terms for the three options, but you all understand what I’m saying.
J.P. and the front office face some tough choices today.
(You were expecting a report about that series in Oakland? I spent three hours yesterday watching the game. I’m not spending any more time writing about it. A man can only take so much.)
So, here go three different 1,000 word essays advocating each of the three alternatives. Each essay is written from its own point of view and is meant to stand alone.
Go For It
The window is small, folks. The window is small. While it won’t close after this season, it’s going to get increasingly more and more difficult to compete with the Yankee Machine and Red Sox Nation. Let’s look briefly at each team. The Yankees just got Bobby Abreu, but they also got him for 2007 and didn’t have to pick up his $2 million option. He doesn’t look like he’s aging particularly well, but he’ll still be a productive player next year and the Yankees can re-evaluate him after 2007 to see if they want to pick up the option. I’d take Abreu over Sheffield going forward. The Yankees also got Cory Lidle to take over from Sidney Ponson, but they are still starting Jaret Wright and an often-ineffective Big Unit. Hideki Matsui is out for nearly the whole year, as is Gary Sheffield, Robinson Cano’s been hurt and Bernie Williams is still starting. The Yankees this year are vulnerable.
Will they be in the future? I don’t want to sound fatalistic, but it’s hard to imagine them being in worse shape than they are this year in the next few years. Yes, the minors are relatively bare, but Philip Hughes is one of baseball’s top pitching prospects. However, the less control the Tampa Mafia has the better it is for the franchise and Steinbrenner’s been less involved in the last year or so, by all reports, than he was in, say 2002 when Mondesi was summoned to New York. Let’s look at all the big money players coming off New York’s book in the next two years. Mike Mussina ($17 million 2007 option), Randy Johnson (last year – 2007: $16 million), Jason Giambi (last year – 2008: $21 million), Abreu (2008 option for $17 million), Sheffield, Mariano Rivera ($10.5 million 2007 option), Jorge Posada ($12 million 2007 option), Carl Pavano (no way is his $13 million 2009 option exercised), Jaret Wright (last year – 2007: $7 million), Kyle Farnsworth (last year – 2007: $5.5 million), Shawn Chacon (paid $3.6 million this year), plus about $8 million or so from Tanyton Sturtze, Bernie Williams, Ponson, Octavio Dotel and Cairo. That’s a lot of money, and I don’t think the Jays can keep relying on the Yankees to make Pavano-sized mistake with it.
The Red Sox have nearly as much money, are better positioned for the future and have a very good front office. Jon Lester’s looking like he’s going to be a good starter and while Jonathan Papelbon’s pitching over his head; he could be the Red Sox closer for the next six-plus years. Neither Ortiz nor Manny shows any signs of slowing down and the Red Sox will ride these two as long as they can. The Red Sox have shown a willingness to reinvent themselves when necessary. Could you ever see the Yankees trading away Jeter midseason, even if the relationship had deteriorated somewhat? If they have several key contributors on near-minimum salaries they’ll find a way to fill their holes with whatever money they have. I wouldn’t want to bet the Jays playoff chances on a hope that the Yankees or Red Sox can’t fill their holes through free agency or, as in the Abreu case, the ability to absorb another team’s unwanted contract.
Sure, the Jays have only 11% odds at the playoffs, but would you wager that their odds are better at the beginning of 2007 or 2008? Realistically, is the team ever going to have a 1 in 4 chance going into any season in the near future? So, let’s not gamble our fortune away and trade Ricky Romero, Adam Lind, Brandon League or Ryan Patterson. But, if we need to sacrifice a Casey Janssen, a Ty Taubenheim or a Francisco Rosario then that’s simply the price that has to be paid. Similarly, in the right deal, Dustin McGowan is expendable. Julio Lugo is a significant upgrade over John McDonald and with Russ Adams seemingly falling out of favour with the front office; shortstop is a hole that might have to be filled in the offseason. Why not trade for Lugo, get the two-month upgrade and hope that J.P. and his agent can come to terms on an extension.
If what the team is being offered isn’t a significant upgrade over what we have, don’t make the deal. Kip Wells shouldn’t be our main target. But, Lugo is on the market and the market for him has apparently dried up to, basically, just the Jays and the Red Sox. Tampa’s been unable to sign him to an extension and if they want a return on him, they have 24 hours to deal. J.P.’s got to be able to get a deal done there. The Jays are starting either Cat, Hinske or Zaun at DH against left-handers. Neither is a particularly appetizing option and we know that right-handed hitting Ryan Shealy is blocked in Colorado by Todd Helton, despite having two very strong years at Triple-A. He’s 27 and the Rockies have realized they can make the most of his value by moving him. He could be part of our DH platoon this year and beyond. Colorado apparently wants relief pitching, so let’s look at Jason Frasor or Francisco Rosario. Or both. Maybe Accardo. Shealy would be an upgrade this year and beyond and if he costs a couple of arms, it’s doable.
Why not look into Mark Redman? The nomadic southpaw isn’t a good starter, but he can give you 10 starts down the stretch run that are around league-average. It isn’t anything to get giddy over, but let’s compare that to the inconsistencies of Casey Janssen and Dustin McGowan. Again, Redman is someone who could be kept around next year at a reasonable cost and give the team what Josh Towers was supposed to this year. As this year has demonstrated, the value of having consistency and average performance at the back of the rotation is something that shouldn’t be overlooked. Particularly with Ted Lilly likely to leave as a free agent after this year, to slot Mark Redman in the number 4 hole isn’t a particularly good feeling, but you’d know what you’re getting and would be able to use Marcum/McGowan/Janssen in the fifth spot. If all else fails, we’ll get compensation for many of these to-be free agents. By being creative, J.P. can improve this team for this year, when we do have a real chance at making the playoffs and can improve us for the future. As much as I’d like to say the team will be back in 2007, will the Jays have the AL’s best offence again? Can we count on this many players having good years next year? And don’t forget, another Kevin Mench groundball could do in our whole season in an instant. An injury to Halladay and this team is done.
Houston sat 6 games back of the Wild Card on July 31, 2004. Let’s believe.
Stand Pat
Although many won’t be happy with the stand pat option, it’s the only reasonable choice. The Jays are too far out of it to really make a charge and they’re too close to give up the season. To deal with the second option first, the Jays can’t raise the white flag on this season. It’s not fair to too many players in the clubhouse. Reed Johnson, Frank Catalanotto, Alex Rios, Lyle Overbay, Troy Glaus, Aaron Hill, Roy Halladay, B.J. Ryan, Ted Lilly, Justin Speier and Vernon Wells are all having very good to outstanding seasons. One can’t have that many guys play so well and then go into the clubhouse, look them in the eye and say that you made a white-flag trade. It’s not fair to Ryan and A.J. Burnett who signed with Toronto, being told that this is the time the Jays intended to compete with and hopefully defeat the Red Sox and Yankees.
However, even more than matters of fairness or disappointing your own players, think about what such a trade would do to clubhouse morale. Clubhouse morale may be pretty low now, and there is no doubt that this loss stings much worse than a normal loss. However, as professional ballplayers do, the individuals on the team will put it behind them and it will be but a memory in ten days time. What won’t be a memory is if the team trades Lilly and Speier for players who aren’t even in the majors. What message would that send to pending free agents like Cat (if he’s not traded himself) or Gregg Zaun? The Jays make two of the biggest free agent signings in baseball, trade for a 40-HR hitter and are competing with Yankees and Red Sox teams with a number of holes and injuries. They are about five games out in mid-season and yet raise the white flag. If I was a player an entirely logical thought would be, “How does this team ever intend to win the AL East?”
Like any team in baseball, the Jays could stand to improve themselves in the offseason, but what’s the selling point? “We’re in the toughest division in baseball (or one of the two toughest). We are chasing the Yankees and Red Sox and got kind of close last season but had to give up because they were too far ahead. We got some nice shiny minor leaguers back and we swear, you will make everything different.” What does giving up say to the fans, who the Jays are trying to attract to the Rogers Centre in larger numbers?
Instead, why not take a gamble that the Jays do pull off a large winning streak. Gustavo Chacin is likely to be back in August and while he’s no saviour, he’s an improvement over Dustin McGowan. The Jays are going to have a tough time winning, regardless, without their free agent acquisitions playing like they are being paid to play and we need A.J. to step up. If he does, Halladay and Lilly keep pitching well and Chacin is back an 8-10 game winning streak isn’t out of the question at all with this offence. That, combined with some key victories over the Yankees, Red Sox, White Sox and Twins in our head-to-head games might allow us to vault ourselves back into the thick of the race. If it happens, great. If not, the Jays can spend the time working on resigning the players we want to keep for 2007, such as Speier and Cat. If they leave, the Jays can get some nice compensation picks for some of them. This will allow the team to strengthen a mediocre minor league system and also gain some prospects that can be flipped for veterans at some future deadline if we are in a race. However, in the end, the most important point is that the Jays would take too much of a hit to throw in the towel on this season.
However, at the same time they are too far out of it to trade minor leaguers for major leaguers, hoping to leapfrog several teams into the Wild Card lead or AL East championship. The team had a several-year window with this set of players – it isn’t a one-year shot and the Jays shouldn’t place their chips on the 2006 wheel at the expense of a future year. They can contend in 2007 and 2008 and players likely to be dealt in any deadline deal, like Dustin McGowan, Shaun Marcum, Adam Lind or Francisco Rosario will be part of those teams. Rather than dealing McGowan for a two-month rental of Lugo, the Jays should use the next two months to evaluate him, both at Triple-A and in the majors in September, if it’s clear it’s not going to be this year. If they think he can contribute great and if he needs more work, there’ll be opportunity in the offseason to deal him for something that will help us in 2007 and let a team that has the time to work with him try to harness his potential.
A two-month rental isn’t in the best interest of this team, and basically that’s all that’s being offered. Julio Lugo wants a $50 million/5-year deal and I really doubt J.P.’s going to shell out that money to him. Mark Redman or Kip Wells aren’t part of any long-term plan in Toronto and Toronto can’t deal anyone who is (which is what is being asked) for them. If it was 25% or 30% it would be different, but for a 10% shot the Jays can’t even afford to trade someone like Jesse Litsch for someone who is arguably not even an upgrade over Marcum or McGowan.
As unappetizing as it is, the only reasonable course of action is to keep the team as it is right now. When you’re stuck between a rock and hard place, sometimes its best to stay there.
Retool for the Future
Likely no loss this year hurt as much as yesterday’s loss. For the first time all year the Jays have a real chance to win a game they trailed after 8 innings. There were two out, one on and the Jays have their All-Star closer protecting a 2-run lead. A tenacious at-bat by Mark Kotsay and a homer by Milton Bradley later, it’s all over. The Jays have lost. They currently sit 6.0 games back of Boston in the AL East and 5.5 back of the Yankees in the Wild Card race. Not only are they chasing these two behemoths, but the Twins and their Pair of Aces and the White Sox stand between them. The Jays playoff odds sit at about 11.5%, but they’ve never pulled off a winning streak of any significance this season. Meanwhile, the Yankees have acquired a .400-OBP player and a league-average starter who will replace Sir Sidney Ponson, which is a notable upgrade in its own right. One of the Red Sox and White Sox will make a trade tomorrow and the Twins may just sit tight and ride Johan Santana and Francisco Liriano, neither of whom shows any signs of slowing down.
As difficult as it will be to make a white-flag trade this year, both to the players in the clubhouse and to the fans, this is what needs to be done. The Jays could get some significant return on many of their pending free agents and retooling for 2007 and 2008 is something worth exploring. I’d like to keep many of our to-be free agents, such as Frank Catalanotto, Ted Lilly and Justin Speier. Nevertheless, I have to assume J.P. has explored contract extensions with them and has a good idea if Toronto can resign them. The fact the Jays haven’t isn’t a good sign. If J.P. can lock them up, he should do it. If not, the front office has to turn them into something valuable. Compensation is nice, but it’s not going to help the big league team in 2007 or 2008 and that’s when we need to be looking to.
After 2005 Scott Eyre had a career 4.52 ERA and while he had a 2.63 ERA in 2005, his 2004 ERA was 4.10. Bobby Howry had a career 3.58 ERA and had put up ERAs of 2.74 and 2.47 in 2004 and 2005, respectively. Eyre received an $11 million/3 year contract, while Howry received $12 million over 3 years, both from the Chicago Cubs. Kyle Farnsworth got $17 million/3 years for his career 4.45 ERA. That’s a deceptive stat though, because Farnsworth is a noted flame-thrower who had a 2.19 ERA in 2005 and 3.30 in 2003. Currently, Justin Speier has a 3.07 ERA and had a 2.57 ERA last year. ERA is just the handiest stat to use, but the rest of his statistics bear out the fact that Speier is one of the top setup men in the American League and, excluding closers, the best free agent relievers I can find are Mike Timlin, Scott Williamson, David Riske, Ron Villone, Danys Baez and Chad Bradford. I would be surprised if Speier couldn’t find himself a ten figure deal over three years. The Jays have known that for a while and if they don’t think they can afford him or are unwilling to commit that dough to a non-Ryan-like reliever, it’s a seller’s market for pitching right now. While there’ll be no Austin Kearns for Speier, it’s very conceivable Toronto could get a Triple-A B-prospect as opposed to an A-ball project. If the Jays can resign Speier, that’s great, I’m all for it. But if not, the Jays should cash in on him now. One could say the same for Scott Schoeneweis, as the phones should start ringing off the hook once J.P. faxes out a page showing his stats against left-handed batters.
I’m a huge Cat fan. He does a lot of things well, knows his limitations and accepts his platoon role without anything complaining. There should be no problem getting him at-bats next year, whether he’s platooning with Johnson, being our normal DH or rotating between the two positions. But again, if he’s not resignable, flip him. He’s got a .895 OPS and any GM can see his .417 OBP and ridiculous 41/23 BB/K ratio. Lots of contending teams need a corner outfielder and it shouldn’t be hard to get a good return for him.
Ted Lilly would instantly become the best starter on the market. Mark Redman? Kip Wells? Rodrigo Lopez? Lilly would be nice to keep with our starting pitching woes, but he’s had several clashes with Brad Arnsberg and done nothing to shed his rumour of being difficult to coach. Call it a gut feeling, but of our pending free agents he seems least likely to resign rather than chase the big bucks. Okay, he might not net Scott Kazmir, as Victor Zambrano did, but in 2003 Ponson himself gave Baltimore a return of Kurt Ainsworth, Damian Moss and Ryan Hanaman. In 2002 Ryan Dempster netted Juan Encarnacion, Wilton Guerrero and Ryan Snare. In the same year Chuck Finley got the Indians Coco Crisp (and another minor leaguer named Luis Garcia). And, sorry to be the one to do this, in 2000 Esteban Loaiza got the Texas Rangers Darwin Cubilian and Mike Young.
In conclusion, the Jays could get a real return for these four players and not just warm bodies and salary relief. Whether they package them, deal them individually or even just trade Lilly and Schoeneweis. J.P. should insist on Triple-A talent or young major leaguers back as the central parts of the deal, but even someone in Double-A is going to contribute faster than a 2007 draft pick. I’d love to resign Speier and Cat, in particular, but if that’s not going to happen J.P. should cash in on several wide-open pennant races.
Oh yeah, and trade Bengie for cents on the dollar. Give Phillips some at-bats and reward Zaun for his actions in L’Affaire Hillenbrand.
So, the trading deadline is coming at 4 P.M. today. Which argument do you agree with? What should J.P. do? What would you do Bauxites? What will J.P. do?
https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20060731023548551