Jays vs. Mariners: Bullpen Blast

Monday, July 17 2006 @ 07:30 AM EDT

Contributed by: Rob

The day after a crazy series involving every relief pitcher on the roster (plus Jesus Figueroa, probably), Da Box welcomes a pinch-hit from longtime Bauxite and Cheer Club troublemaker Alex Obal on the state of the Blue Jays' bullpen.

In the eminently forgettable pre-All-Star series in Kansas City, Brandon League made his 2006 Blue Jay debut, becoming the 19th hurler to throw a pitch for Toronto this year. The Jays have now sent more different pitchers to the hill than they did in 2005.

At this point, practically every in-house option capable of providing value to the bullpen right now has received an audition. The challenge before J.P. Ricciardi and his staff is finally settling on the seven arms most likely to help his team as they head into the stretch drive, which will begin tonight with a perilous three-game set with the three best starters the underrated Rangers have to offer. Then it’s a pivotal four-game weekend showdown with the rampaging Yankees.

The rotation, at least until Ty Taubenheim or Gustavo Chacin returns from injury, looks set: Halladay, Burnett, Lilly, Marcum and Janssen, with Dustin McGowan possibly waiting in the wings if it all comes together for him in a hurry. Including Taubenheim (but not McGowan), there are 11 pitchers with a reasonable claim to a spot in the Jays’ optimal bullpen going forward. Below is a summary of what they’ve done this year.

Pitchers are ranked according to Leverage Index, a measure of how much influence on win probability their appearances have had. The closer you are to the top of this list, the more trust John Gibbons has in you; however, some players’ samples are very small and may simply reflect having been given high-leverage situations because of a shortage of arms, so it’s definitely not quite a be-all, end-all ranking of Gibby’s favorites. Win Probability Added is provided too, mostly because doing so for everyone is an airtight excuse to print B.J. Ryan’s WPA. These stats were taken from Fangraphs.

The stats do not include Sunday’s game.

1. B.J. Ryan – 1.64 Leverage Index, 362.0 WPA

             AB   BA  OBP  SLG   K  BB   H  HR 
03-05 vs LH 274 .157 .238 .230 118  27  43   4 
03-05 vs RH 491 .238 .322 .310 167  61 117   5    
   06 vs LH  35 .057 .105 .057  15   2   2   0    
   06 vs RH 113 .177 .230 .195  40   8  20   0

2006: 21.7% LD, 32.6% GB, 45.7% FB, .237 BABIP, 0.81 ERA

Ryan’s track record suggested that the Blue Jays were getting a fantastic closer; the performance they received in the first half was simply unreal. Ryan has dominated righties and lefties alike. Of course, his numbers became more human after Yuniesky Betancourt of all people stroked a line drive into the Blue Jay bullpen, but it is still wholly unreasonable to complain about BJ’s first half in any way.

The peripheral stats suggest that Ryan may be due for a run of bad luck: his BABIP is abnormally low for the number of line drives he gives up, indicating that he has probably been hit-lucky, and he has surrendered a good number of warning-track fly balls but only one homer. Even if Ryan’s second half isn’t quite as brilliant as his first, he’s still been worth every penny so far, and the peace of mind that comes with a nigh untouchable arm in the back end of the bullpen has been invaluable.

2. Justin Speier – 1.39 LI, 5.2 WPA

              AB   BA  OBP  SLG   K  BB   H  HR 
 03-05 vs LH 349 .238 .304 .421  79  29  83  14
 03-05 vs RH 432 .229 .290 .373  95  34  99  15
    06 vs LH  43 .163 .265 .349  15   5   7   2    
    06 vs RH  91 .264 .343 .451  19  11  24   2

2006: 19.4% LD, 29.6% GB, 51.0% FB, .272 BABIP, 3.15 ERA

Gibbons trusts Speier enough to make him the clear #2 option in the bullpen: he is the only Jay reliever not named Bo Junior to have a Leverage Index greater than 1. But many of Ryan’s 4-out saves involved cleaning up Speier’s baserunners, which contributes to the abnormally low WPA total for a successful pitcher who faces such pressure situations. Speier’s K rate is up to 8.66, but his walk rate has also increased this year.

Curiously, in the small 2006 sample, righthanded batters are hitting Speier with more success than lefties. This, combined with Speier’s small platoon split in the three previous years, suggests that he should be trusted to face lefthanded batters in the late innings and not necessarily reflexively yanked in favor of a lefthander.

3. Scott Schoeneweis – 0.98 LI, 36.0 WPA

              AB   BA  OBP  SLG   K  BB   H  HR
 03-05 vs LH 317 .218 .284 .265  71  25  69   1
 03-05 vs RH 596 .297 .371 .458  97  68 177  21
    06 vs LH  61 .230 .299 .262  11   5  14   0    
    06 vs RH  53 .302 .373 .547   3   6  12   3

2006: 16.7% LD, 55.2% GB, 28.1% FB, .277 BABIP, 5.70 ERA

No surprises here. Get in, get the lefty, get out. Scho’s strikeout rate is down this year, and his performance against lefty batters has been hurt by a run of groundball singles, but the BABIP looks right in line with his LD%. SS is still performing well enough against southpaws to receive regular high-leverage appearances.

4. Pete Walker – 0.96 LI, -64.1 WPA 

              AB   BA  OBP  SLG   K  BB   H  HR 
03-05 vs LH  257 .265 .345 .405  35  33  68   6 
03-05 vs RH  275 .262 .346 .473  37  24  72  15    
   06 vs LH   44 .318 .423 .614  12   8  14   3    
   06 vs RH   81 .284 .326 .407  15   5  23   2

2006: 24.2% LD, 46.3% GB, 29.5% FB, .357 BABIP, 5.40 ERA

Walker is doing an uncharacteristically good job of missing bats. However, when the ball gets put in play, it gets hit hard: none of the peripheral stats scream out that he’s been particularly unlucky in any way.

I was surprised to find that Pistol Pete is fourth on the team in LI, but it’s true. He received a few eighth inning assignments from Gibbons when Speier needed a night off and there weren’t any options that seemed more appealing at the time. Unfortunately, he has been soundly clubbed in many of his highest-leverage appearances. His numbers suggest that he is better off as a long reliever, a role he has filled admirably for the last couple of years.

5. Jason Frasor – 0.83 LI, 45.2 WPA

             AB   BA  OBP  SLG   K  BB   H  HR 
04-05 vs LH 265 .234 .310 .332  68  29  62   5
04-05 vs RH 261 .264 .352 .410  48  35  69   7 
   06 vs LH  50 .220 .291 .320  12   5  11   1 
   06 vs RH  80 .300 .376 .525  22   9  24   5

2006: 24.7% LD, 38.1% GB, 37.1% FB, .329 BABIP, 5.70 ERA

Baseball Prospectus labeled Frasor as the best performer in the 2005 incarnation of the Blue Jays’ bullpen, a nose ahead of Justin Speier. But a few too many untimely hanging curves in April gave Gibbons the exact opposite impression, and Frasor has been a mainstay on the Syracuse shuttle since.

I think we all know where most of Frasor’s positive WPA comes from – The Mike Napoli Game, wherein he and Scott Downs pulled a rabbit out of a hat in Los Angeles of Anaheim.

Curiously, his platoon splits are inside-out and have been his whole career. This could indicate that he has simply faced more challenging righty batters, or that Gibbons should be more confident using Frasor to face lefthanded batters.

With excellent strikeout numbers in Syracuse and a sparkling ERA, Frasor should – must? – be liberated soon.

6. Brandon League – 0.8 LI, -21.2 WPA

2006: 0% LD, 63.6% GB, 36.4% FB, .211 BABIP, 6.00 ERA

Welcome to Small Sample Theatre, where two excellent innings on Friday can be undone by two homers on Saturday.

League’s groundball percentage in Syracuse was a remarkable 77%. His L/R splits were quite normal – .692/.594 OPS, respectively, in 52.2 innings.

If there’s a lesson to be learned from League’s first two showings in The Show in 2006, it’s that his velocity drops if he’s not adequately rested, and that he should therefore be handled with care. But his 99-mph moving fastball should prove to be a very useful toy for this year and, more importantly, 2007.

7. Scott Downs – 0.73 LI, 7.2 WPA

              AB   BA  OBP  SLG   K  BB   H  HR
 03-05 vs LH 150 .247 .296 .320  38  11  37   3 
 03-05 vs RH 486 .288 .361 .481  79  49 140  20    
    06 vs LH  59 .237 .318 .424  14   7  14   2    
    06 vs RH 103 .243 .347 .398  19  16  25   3
2006: 13.2% LD, 60.5% GB, 26.4% FB, .319 BABIP, 5.02 ERA

Scott Downs, groundball machine? I have no idea how he does it, but he does it. Since breaking in with the Expos in 2003, his GB% has gone from 30 to 52 to 54 to this career high. The excellent line drive rate is a nice bonus. These are lovely swingman numbers.

8. Vinnie Chulk – 0.72 LI, -8.1 WPA
              AB   BA  OBP  SLG   K  BB   H  HR
 03-05 vs LH 250 .292 .369 .488  29  33  73  11 
 03-05 vs RH 257 .233 .296 .315  56  23  60   4    
    06 vs LH  34 .235 .257 .353   4   1   8   1    
    06 vs RH  55 .327 .377 .527  13   3  18   3
2006: 25.0% LD, 40.3% GB, 34.7% FB, .333 BABIP, 5.03 ERA

Although Chulk has handled righties with less ease at the major-league level than usual, his L/R OPS splits in Syracuse are .764/.503, which suggest that the numbers in Toronto are just a sample-size fluke.

His Ryanesque 12 K/9 rate in Syracuse indicates that he is probably with the big club for good.

9. Francisco Rosario – 0.69 LI, -28.8 WPA
              AB   BA  OBP  SLG   K  BB   H  HR    
   06 vs LH   22 .318 .464 .455   5   6   7   1    
   06 vs RH   52 .173 .295 .308  13   8   9   2
2006: 25.9% LD, 29.6% GB, 44.4% FB, .258 BABIP, 5.03 ERA

It’s a small sample, and I’d expect K-Ros’ performance to get better with experience and refined command, though it’s not a particularly good small sample.

The numbers against righties suggest that Rosario would be a useful weapon in September.

10. Ty Taubenheim – 0.67 LI, -3.6 WPA 
              AB   BA  OBP  SLG   K  BB   H  HR    
   06 vs LH   61 .262 .382 .475  11  13  16   2    
   06 vs RH   81 .296 .367 .481  15   5  24   3
2006: 17.2% LD, 44.8% GB, 37.9% FB, .325 BABIP, 4.89 ERA

Lefties were .120/.200/.240 against Taubenheim in AAA; righties were .263/.314/.421. I have no idea what to make of that.

Taubenheim had one notably excellent relief appearance: with one out in the bottom of the seventh inning of AJ Burnett’s return against the Braves, Ty stranded runners at first and third, inducing two harmless grounders.

11. Brian Tallet – 0.66 LI, 50.6 WPA 
             AB   BA  OBP  SLG   K  BB   H  HR 
03-05 vs LH  19 .211 .318 .526   3   2   4   1 
03-05 vs RH  77 .325 .393 .571   8   9  25   3    
   06 vs LH  31 .258 .361 .419   5   4   8   1    
   06 vs RH  60 .217 .365 .433  17  13  13   3
2006: 18.8% LD, 43.5% GB, 37.7% FB, .256 BABIP, 5.68 ERA

Tallet gets two kinds of jobs: mop-up duty, or third-string LOOGY duty. Despite his ominously pedestrian K/BB numbers, he has done very well at both. He looks hit-lucky, but he’s a perfectly fine 7th man in the bullpen.

Down the Stretch

Based on those numbers and my gut instinct, here is one stab at building the best possible bullpen. For several scenarios, I ranked the pitchers in descending order of confidence, with the arm I would most want to see on the mound first. Past the first four or five in each category, the precise rankings don’t matter much; I stopped most of the lists at about seven.

To retire a RHB: Ryan, Speier, League, Chulk, Frasor, Rosario, Taubenheim, Downs, Walker.
RHB, runner on third, one out: Ryan, Speier, Frasor, League, Chulk, Rosario, Walker.
To retire a LHB: Ryan, Schoeneweis, Speier, Downs, Frasor, Tallet, League, Taubenheim.
LHB, runner on third, one out: Ryan, Schoeneweis, Speier, Frasor, Downs, League, Tallet.
To pitch against a string of switch-hitters with zero platoon splits: Ryan, Speier, Frasor, League, Downs, Chulk, Schoeneweis.
To lead a Charlie Wholestaff start: Downs, Taubenheim, Walker, Chulk, Rosario, Tallet.

I would head into the stretch with this bullpen:

Ryan – the man
Speier – top set-up guy
League – flamethrowing ground ball machine
Frasor – another strikeout pitcher
Schoeneweis – lefty specialist
Chulk – righty specialist
Downs – long man, 4-0 and counting

Everybody has a fairly well-defined role, but there isn’t an overwhelming need to play La Russian matchups: only Schoeneweis and Chulk really need to be protected from unfavorable platoon edges. Still, if Gibbons feels that frequent pitching changes maximize his chances of winning, this pen is ideal in that it has lots of powerful toys, so Gibbons doesn’t need to immediately reach for Speier and Schoeneweis whenever it’s close but it’s not the 8th yet. Downs is the only true long reliever and swingman, but League has one start this year and made 10 starts a year ago in AAA, so there are a couple of inning eaters. I believe this is the best combination of depth, experience, talent and versatility that the Blue Jays can field with the options they currently have.

And on the out-of-town scoreboard…

Texas (Koronka) at Toronto (Lilly), 7:05
Kansas City (Hudson) at Boston (Wakefield), 7:05
Seattle (Washburn) at New York (Wang), 7:05

The White Sox and Tigers have the day off before a three-game series starts tomorrow night at Comerica.


Thanks to Alex, and I have nothing to add aside from the unintentional hilarity of the line "perfectly fine 7th man in the bullpen." Because we all remember Matt Whiteside.

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