Now that the Jays have stopped losing to Kansas City and we have all emerged, trembling, from under our bedcovers, here's my $.02 on the Jays' first half. As usual, all opinions are exclusively my own, but I'm happy to share if you like.
Lyle Overbay
Hitters are more predictable than pitchers, and Overbay is more predictable than most hitters: he's pretty much guaranteed to be around .300 with good plate discipline and medium-range power. One happy consequence of moving to Ted Rogers' Hitters Paradise is that some of Lyle's gap doubles are clearing the wall in Toronto: he's likely to hit 25 or more homers this year, easily beating his career high. His only real flaw is that other American League teams have first basemen who hit for more power.
By the way, Dave Bush is better off out of Toronto. His 4.34 ERA in Milwaukee would likely translate into a 5+ ERA if he were still here, what with the DH and all, and he'd probably be giving up more home runs than the 10 he's surrendered while pitching for the Brewers. So cry no rivers for him.
Russ Adams
I don't know what happens next. He's obviously too good for the minors: his .338 average in Syracuse was easily higher than that of anybody else playing for the SkyChiefs. But he's not doing anything well in a major league uniform: he's not hitting for average, he's not reaching base, he's not hitting for power, and he's not fielding particularly well. I get the impression that he has weaknesses in his game that major league pitchers can successfully exploit. He could still turn it around, but you've got to think that the reaper is knocking at his door.
John McDonald
Aaron Hill has proven that he can play shortstop in the majors, which pretty much means that Johnny Mac has no discernible job function. He's playing second every now and again, picking up for Adams, but is otherwise rooted to the bench. I wonder: does he wish he were back in Detroit?
Aaron Hill
He has passed a lot of tests already. He's proven he can play third base, second base, and shortstop. He's worked through a hitting slump and made adjustments, and he's starting to hit the way he did when he first came up. I still have no idea what kind of hitter he is going to be - at first, I thought he was going to be the next Paul Molitor, but now I'd say that he looks more like a young Robin Yount. He'll need to develop a bit more power and patience to become a star - but, right now, there is no upper limit on how good he can become.
Troy Glaus
Many big bombers tend to hit in streaks and slumps, and it looks like Glaus may be one of those. He also may believe that it's his job to lead his less experienced teammates to the Promised Land, which means that he feels that he has to hit a long bomb every time up. He doesn't have to do that. All he has to do is keep the line moving.
Memo to John Gibbons: hitters tend not to do as well when forced to play a defensive position that is too demanding for them. In other words: do not play this man at shortstop ever again. Thank you.
Shea Hillenbrand
Has gone through streaks and slumps, and is now exactly where you'd expect him to be: around .300, with medium-range power and below-average plate discipline. If the Jays wind up dumping players in August, Shea is likely to be the first to be thrown over the side.
Reed Johnson
He's now gone through half a season hitting over .350 and reaching base over 45% of the time. He has line-drive power, can play all three outfield positions, and is 8 for 9 stealing bases. Of course, he puts up these outrageously wonderful numbers because he normally only plays in conditions that are optimal for him. But, still: wow.
Frank Catalanotto
Has 38 walks so far this season, which is one shy of his career high. He seems to have learned to lay off pitches that he used to foul off - give Mickey Brantley credit for that.
An interesting question: if the Jays decide to reload for 2007 and dump players, do you let Cat go? He's 32 now, and he's probably at his peak value. Could the Jays get a good starting pitcher for him?
Vernon Wells
I have a sinking feeling that we won't see him in a Toronto uniform after 2007. His long-term contract means that he's been working for relative peanuts, given his performance. To his credit, he hasn't complained, but you've got to assume that he'll want to try to extract every dollar, pound, franc, kopeck, or yen out there when given the chance. I suspect that he'll want to go to Texas - he's from that part of the world, and his buddy, Michael Young, plays there. Enjoy it while it lasts, people.
Alex Rios
All along, my semi-serious criticism of J.P. Ricciardi is that he hasn't been lucky enough. Who could predict that his emerging star would contract a serious bacterial infection? This, like Kevin Mench's line drive, is the act of a capricious and spiteful Baseball God.
While Alex deserves to be on the All-Star team, he's still got a ways to go before he can be considered a proven star. From now on, opposing pitchers will no longer challenge him with fastballs; they'll throw him tantalizing off-speed pitches just out of the strike zone to see whether they can find a weakness that they can capitalize on. You have to expect that Rios, like Wells and Delgado before him, will see his numbers drop while he learns to adjust to the new pitching patterns. But they both eventually rebounded, and I assume that Rios will, too. Will likely take over centre field and the #3 slot if Wells moves on.
Eric Hinske
You have to give him credit. He waited patiently and worked hard, and seized his opportunity when it came. I don't see him being a long-term solution - right now, as in his rookie season, he's playing at the upper limit of his abilities, and over time he'll sink back to his usual level. But he's no longer dead weight: he's made a significant contribution to the Jays' 2006 season. Given what he can do - play three positions, pinch-hit and pinch-run - he'll likely have several more seasons in the majors in a part-time role, and he'll deserve them.
Bengie Molina
Molina isn't a better player than Zaun - he doesn't hit better or throw better, and he obviously doesn't run better. But Zaun wears down if you play him too much - he's not young - and it's obviously much better to have a mix of 65% Molina and 35% Zaun than 80% Zaun and 20% Quiroz or Huckaby, even if Gregg might be a better #1. Molina doesn't strike out much, by the way: he's fanned only 21 times so far, which ranks him 10th on the team.
Gregg Zaun
He hasn't complained about his demotion, he reaches base, he can switch hit, and he has power. And he recently bowled Robert Fick over at the plate. What more could you ask for?
The only downside is that he is now 35: he's a young 35, as he hasn't played much, but you've got to think that he can't last too much longer. Recall what happened to Darrin Fletcher and Greg Myers: they were very good, then suddenly they weren't.
Chad Mottola
I hope he enjoys his week or two of major-league life, and that all those years slogging through the minors are worth the trouble.
Offense, Summary
Their numbers are inflated by their home park, but the Jays are still hitting the ball far better than any of us expected. And only Johnson and Zaun, and maybe Hinske, are hitting over their heads (assuming that Rios's improvement is for real). Credit goes to J.P. for building a better mousetrap.
Roy Halladay
I have no idea whether, statistically, the Doctor is the best pitcher in baseball. And I admit to being biased. But, speaking as a Blue Jays fan, I say this: I would not trade Halladay for any other pitcher in baseball. I say he's the best. To fans of Johan Santana or Jose Contreras: have a raspberry on me. Phhhphpt.
A.J. Burnett
Despite being the same age as Halladay, he's clearly not a finished product: his stuff moves so much that he doesn't always have a handle on it. Despite this, he has a tremendous strikeout-to-walk ratio so far, with seven walks and 34 strikeouts in 35 1/3 innings. This indicates that he is bringing plenty to the table.
Strangely enough, I'm not worried about him any more. He didn't pitch that well in his last two starts, but his defense let him down both times. (I think there were botched double play balls in both starts. Turning two outs into zero is hard on a pitcher.) The upside, of course, is his wondrous start against Washington, in which the hitters looked totally overmatched. He isn't going to become Roy Halladay Part II, and he probably won't deliver the sort of performance you normally expect from someone making his salary (i.e., Roy Halladay Part II). But he'll be good enough, I think.
Ted Lilly
In 2004, he was consistently good. In 2005, he was consistently awful. This year, he's been alternately very good and quite bad, which averages out to sorta okay. Still, 16 home runs and 52 walks in 101 2/3 innings means you can't fully trust him with the family silverware. Likely to be gone after 2006, as somebody is going to overpay for him.
Casey Janssen
Shed no tears over the collapse of Josh Towers, as he basically has been cloned. Janssen gives up fewer hits and walks a few more batters, but his K/IP ratio, his home runs allowed, and his ERA are comparable to what we could have expected from Towers before he blew up real good.
Janssen's long-term prognosis is icky: he's struck out 39 in 78 innings, which is exactly one hitter every two innings (otherwise known as the Michalak Line). Basically, this isn't good enough. He'll either have to start missing more bats or the Jays will have to find somebody better.
Ty Taubenheim
The problem that Gibbons, Ricciardi, and the Jays face is that Syracuse is a much easier place to pitch than Toronto. Throughout the Jays' history, there have been many, many pitchers who have pitched great in Syracuse, only to get bombed in the Show. Such pitchers often get summoned to Toronto, returned to Syracuse, called back up again, and so on and so on; this is called the Micheal Nakamura Shuttle, after the former reliever who made several of these round trips earlier in the decade.
Taubenheim is one example of a pitcher who did much better in AAA than in the bigs: his ERA in the 'Cuse was 1.36, and his ERA in Toronto is 4.89. Mind you, 4.89 isn't all that bad for a rookie pitcher, in an extreme hitters' park, facing the pressure of pitching for a team that is trying to win. But it's not good enough to beat the BoSox, so off to the bullpen or Syracuse he goes.
His K/IP ratio in Syracuse might have been a clue: he only struck out 24 in 39 1/3 innings. This isn't exactly dominant; he was probably just locating his pitches well and fooling less-experienced hitters. In The Show, they hit those pitches.
Gustavo Chacin
Before he went down, his numbers weren't all that good, which suggests that his absence isn't hurting the team that much. (Of course, his bad elbow might have been affecting his numbers.) Still tied for third on the team in wins, but that was due mostly to good run support. I still haven't opened my vial of Chacin cologne yet. I'm afraid to.
Josh Towers
Not only was he bad, he was historically bad: virtually nobody gets a chance to rack up an ERA over 9.00 in 12 starts. Most pitchers get dumped long before that. His 16 home runs allowed is still tied for the team lead. It's cruel to think of where the Jays would be if Towers had only pitched at replacement level.
More proof that Syracuse numbers aren't a reliable indicator: Towers' ERA in AAA is 2.66.
B.J. Ryan
Showed signs of being an ordinary pitcher in his last outing: he actually gave up baserunners and runs, which we're not used to seeing. As others on this site have pointed out, Ryan is likely to go into a slump eventually: virtually nobody is this good for this long. Fingers and Eckersley had entire seasons like this, but that's about it. Heck, Willie Hernandez won an MVP award in 1984 with an ERA over twice as high as B.J.'s, and that was in an era that was more pitcher-friendly.
Justin Speier
Has now outlasted almost two complete sets of bullpen pitchers. He was a teammate of Ligtenberg and Adams, and he has remained while Frasor and Chulk have been sent out. His unorthodox delivery affects his control, but makes him tougher to hit than his erstwhile teammates. Seems well-suited to the eighth inning.
Scott Schoeneweis
For some reason, I think of him as having been better than his numbers show him to be. His K/IP ratio is off, which suggests that he might be tiring.
This is as good a place as any to mention that there aren't any Jays relievers who are "vulturing" wins: no Blue Jay reliever has more than two wins right now. The starters have either been very good or very bad, so there haven't been many opportunities for relievers to come into tie games in the middle innings.
Jason Frasor
I think he belongs in the majors. His Syracuse numbers are overwhelming: he's fanned 19 in 9 1/3 innings, and his ERA is 0.96. One warning sign, though: he has walked six batters in those 9 1/3 innings, which suggests that he doesn't have his command yet. And it was this lack of command that caused him to be sent out in the first place. If he comes back, I predict that he won't be any better than when he left.
Pete Walker
Injured again. At this point, I contend that his arm isn't resilient enough to take the strain of a major league job, especially on a team where the manager loves to switch pitchers. I'm not expecting anything from him after this.
Vinnie Chulk
As always, he's similar to Frasor, but in a slightly diluted form. He has struck out 43 batters in 31 innings in Syracuse. I think he's better than Tallet or Downs, and he probably should be welcomed back.
Brian Tallet
Then again, it might not make much difference: Tallet, Chulk and Frasor all have roughly similar major-league numbers. Managers do like left-handed pitchers, though: hitters don't see as many of them, and are more likely to be flummoxed. Tallet has had a lot of walks and a fair number of strikeouts, which suggests good stuff but poor command.
Brandon League
League will probably be more of the same: his Syracuse ERA is respectable, but not as good as Frasor or Chulk's, and his K/IP isn't as good as either of theirs. One good sign: he hasn't allowed a home run all year. Keeping the ball down is essential to success in the Rogers Centre, also known as Ted's Happy Fun Launching Pad.
Scott Downs
Absolutely generic replacement-level left-handed pitcher. Slightly more valuable than some of his bullpen mates because he can go deeper into ballgames (on the days in which he is not being thoroughly pounded by opposing hitters). Has held his job and stayed healthy all year, which puts him ahead of a lot of people.
Shawn Marcum
The best of the available AAA candidates. Marcum's K/IP ratio in Syracuse is better than anyone else's, and he has shown tremendous control. There's a job waiting for somebody if he can step up and take it.
Dustin McGowan
Still has overpowering stuff, but I don't expect somebody with a 4.68 ERA in Syracuse to be able to help the big club right now.
Francisco Rosario
There are many, many pitchers in organized baseball who can throw hard but aren't exactly sure where the darn thing is going. Rosario is one of those pitchers. Many young phenoms never find the range (where have you gone, Mo Sanford?), but it's easier to teach a hard thrower to find the plate than to teach a control artist to throw harder.
Pitching, Summary
Not good enough. The Jays have two holes in their starting rotation and unreliable middle relief. They won't beat Boston and New York with that. J.P. has to either find a starter ASAP or reload for 2007. End of story.
Overall
As I've said before, we can't expect it all to happen in one year. The gap between the heavy hitters in the AL East and everyone else requires a considerable investment of time and money to overcome. The first step is to build a slightly better team and stabilize the club's finances at the mid-market level; the Jays appear to have done that. After that, they can mobilize their resources for a final push.
One worry: the Jays don't appear to have much help immediately available in the farm system. (Minor-league gurus, feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.) This means that they are at the peak of their current success cycle. To contend in 2007, they may have to open Mr. Rogers' wallet a little wider.
https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20060711115559236