TDIB Saturday: Buying and Selling
Saturday, July 08 2006 @ 04:15 AM EDT
Contributed by: Magpie
Every now and then, I get it right.
I get enough of them wrong, Lord knows, and absolutely Anyone in the Whole World can go look it up in our wonderful Archives. I am the fella who told you the the 2005 White Sox would finish third. Somewhere, you can find me touting Oliver Perez of the Pirates to win the NL Cy Young. Let us not speak of it. Just a few months ago, I advised you all that the NL East would be won by the Philadelphia Phillies, behind the powerful right arm of the 2006 NL Cy Young winner, Brett Myers.
I could still edit that story, by the way. Remove all those instances where I was... well, completely wrong. I wonder how much would be left afterwards...
But every now and then, I do get one right! We're coming up towards the trading deadline and Lord knows, just about everyone needs starting pitching. Who's the best starter out there, who's going to be a free agent at the end of the season?
Barry Zito.
Zito isn't going anywhere - his team is in first place despite the fact that Rich Harden, who is supposed to be Oakland's best pitcher, has started exactly the same number of games as A.J. Burnett.
But it was December 2004 when Billy Beane broke up his Big Three, dealing Tim Hudson to Atlanta and Mark Mulder to St.Louis. A lengthy discussion ensured on the Box, and the general consensus was surprise that Zito was the one that Beane had chosen to keep.
And I, practically alone of all my tribe, maintained stoutly that Zito was obviously the one of the three that Beane should have kept. On the grounds that he was the youngest, he had the best health record, and he struck out the most batters.
There were surely other factors - the A's controlled Zito for two more years (at the time), Mulder and Hudson for just one apiece. Mulder and Hudson may well have been perceived as more desirreable by other GMs, and attracted better offers. Whatever. I don't care.
See, I was right! For once! Beane kept the right guy!
NAME G GS W L Sv QS Hld IP H ER R HR BB SO K/9 WHIP ERA
Barry Zito 18 18 8 5 0 12 0 118.0 99 43 46 10 56 88 6.71 1.31 3.28
Tim Hudson 18 18 6 8 0 7 0 114.1 118 58 64 9 44 75 5.90 1.42 4.57
Mark Mulder 15 15 6 5 0 8 0 88.2 109 60 63 18 28 48 4.87 1.55 6.09
Hell, the pitcher Beane received in the Mulder trade has been better than both Mulder and Hudson.
NAME G GS W L Sv QS Hld IP H ER R HR BB SO K/9 WHIP ERA
Dan Haren 18 18 6 6 0 11 0 121.2 109 46 48 16 26 95 7.03 1.11 3.40
So anyway - the best FA pitcher is, alas, not going to be available.
The time is coming, and soon, when the 30 teams will cleave into two groups - Buyers and Sellers. We already know where most of them stand. But for about half a dozen teams, Toronto among them, the next three weeks are going to tell the tale. I have six teams in the Undecided column; they actually make up three nicely matched pairs:
1. Disappointed! (Phillies and Braves)
Both teams expected so much more than this. Despite everything, however, they are still within striking distance of the NL Wild Card. The Braves are 7.5 games back, the Phillies are 6.5 games back. Pat Gillick and John Schuerholz have both been at this long enough that they're probably not going to fool themselves into thinking their team is better than it is. Both are pretty secure in their posts - Gillick is in his first year on the job, and if he feels the need for a scapegoat, the manager is handy. Schuerholz might be the most secure GM the game has seen since Connie Mack was running the A's. It's now or never for both these teams. Earlier this season, the Phils ran off a 13-1 streak; the Braves put together a 15-5 run back in May. They need to do something similar, and they need to do it right now, or they will be Selling.
2. Still Hanging Around (Angels and Diamondbacks)
Arizona and Los Angeles both sport 41-45 records, they're both dead last in their divisions - but they're both closer to first place than the Blue Jays. The Snakes trail San Diego by 5 games, while the Angels are just 4 games behind Oakland. They're both one losing streak from being Sellers, but at the moment it's awfully hard to give up hope. With everyone looking for pitching, the Angels have nothing to offer even if they do go into Selling mode - they're more likely to see if someone will relieve them of Darrin Erstad or Adam Kennedy. Arizona may be trying to move Craig Counsell no matter what - Stephen Drew is banging on the door, and they're going to have to let him in. Otherwise, Miguel Batista is their most attractive property.
3. In Tough (Twins and Blue Jays)
Minnesota and Toronto would be in first place if they played in the AL West. Or the NL Central. Or the NL West. Too bad for them - they both sit in third place in the division they're unlucky enough to actually play in. They're both 9 games out of the Wild Card, which is probably too much to overcome. Toronto is 6 games out of the division lead, which does make their situation better than Minnesota's. The Twins need help from the teams ahead of them - they need Detroit or Chicago to come back to the pack a little bit. The Blue Jays are closer to the teams they're chasing, both of which have some potential problems - Boston has only been able to count on three starters this season and two of them are Ancient - the Yankees have the same shortage of starting pitching, and they also lost two-thirds of their outfield. If they go into Selling Mode, the Blue Jays have Ted Lilly, Scott Schoeneweis, Justin Speier, and Shea Hillenbrand to dangle in front of other teams - and possibly Gregg Zaun as well. The Jays have an option on Molina for 2007, and I wouldn't expect them to pick it up - unless Zaun is no longer around. He could leave as a free agent, they could move him before that happens.
If it's pitching you're looking for, and that probably is what you're looking for...
Zito isn't going anywhere. Miguel Batista and Corey Lidle might be available, depending on how Arizona and the Phillies look two weeks from now. The same is true of Ted Lilly and Brad Radke, depending on which way the Jays and Twins decide to go. The Braves are extremely unlikely to move John Smoltz, even if they do pull the plug, and John Thomson has struggled badly this season. Greg Maddux and Kerry Wood will be free agents when the year is over, but I can't see Maddux being effective in the AL at this stage, and I can't see Wood staying healthy for longer than three weeks, even if the Cubs were inclined to move them. Kip Wells of the Pirates has been terrible since returning to action... well, he was terrible last season so he's just picking up where he left off. The Pirates have sent Oliver Perez to the minors - I still like him a lot, and I'd love to take a flier on him. But I wouldn't want to count on him for anything.
Jason Schmidt of the Giants is having an excellent year, but the Giants are still very much in the thick of it in the NL West.Still, if the Giants lose 10 of 11, he might be on the market.
So the most attractive pitchers out there, who might reasonably be expected to be on the move, would be Tony Armas and Ramon Ortiz of the Washington Nationals.
NAME G GS W L Sv QS Hld IP H ER R HR BB SO K/9 WHIP ERA
Tony Armas 15 15 6 4 0 7 0 79.0 79 39 41 6 32 57 6.49 1.41 4.44
Ramon Ortiz 16 16 6 6 0 7 0 97.1 111 53 57 12 28 54 4.99 1.43 4.90
And everybody needs pitching. Armas and Ortiz are the scraps left on the table and a lot of teams will be fighting over them.
After all, consider the New York Mets. There they are, cruising along with a double digit lead and the best record in the National League. Do they need pitching? You bet they do. They just put Pedro Martinez on the DL. They actually chose to start Jose Lima in last night's game, which is about as plaintive a Cry for Help as you are ever likely to hear.
How did the Lima Time gambit work out? Well, the other team's pitcher roughed him up for a grand slam. Lima is now 0-4, 9.87 in his four starts; I would think Josh Towers might be looking pretty good to Omar Minaya about now.
As Mike Green pointed out, yesterday was (probably) Satchel Paige's 100th birthday. We think so, anyway - the actual date has long been shrouded in mystery and legend, as is only appropriate for a man who was able to retire major league hitters when he was roughly 60 years old. We know for sure that yesterday was the 49th anniversary of the day that John Lennon first met Paul McCartney, so it was certainly a date of some import..
Anyway, while I have always, always sworn by one of Satchel's rules for Staying young - "Don't look back, something might be gaining on you." - I think it proper to announce that I have now incorporated another of his Rules into my lifestyle:
"Avoid running at all costs."
Those of you who saw my one and, hopefully, only appearance at the TBBL can attest to how faithfully I'm following that one.
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