A statistical look at the 2006 Jay offence in the first half

Thursday, July 06 2006 @ 10:46 AM EDT

The Jay offence has been humming along in the first half of the season. It's time for a statistical look at the individual performances, and at some platooning decisions facing John Gibbons.

Balls have been leaving Rogers Centre (the Bandwidth Box?) real fast, and some unfamiliar names have been putting up gaudy numbers. So, we think that everyone is doing better than their career norms. Think again. Here are the current year and 3 year weighted average GPA (current year GPA is weighted directly with previous years, giving 2006 an effective weight of double 2004 and 2005; in Russ Adams' case, his September 2004 performance was given a weight of .15).

Player	1 year GPA	3 year weighted GPA
Johnson	.318	.267
Hinske	.305	.263
Wells	.303	.274
Rios	.302	.259
Zaun	.301	.270
Catalanotto	.301	.274
Overbay	.279	.283
Glaus	.269	.287
Hillenbrand	.265	.263
Molina	.243	.255
Hill	.228	.236
Adams	.199	.223

The team is performing above the 3 year norms, as a whole. Some of this is undoubtedly due to park effects. In Alex Rios' case, there is evidence of a broad-ranging improvement that in a player's 3rd year at age 25 is not entirely unexpected. Overall, the team's GPA can be expected to fall somewhat in the second half. However, the offence so far this year, unlike last year, has been underefficient, scoring fewer runs than would be expected from the team GPA. So, the expected decline in team GPA may not be noticed when the runs scored are tallied.

When Alex Rios returns to the lineup, a decision will have to be made about the use of Hinske and Hilenbrand in the DH slot. Here are the 1 year and weighted 4 year OBP/Slugging Percentages against right-handed pitchers. For the 4 year averages, I have weighted current year plate appearances or at-bats at three times the weight of 2003-05 PAs/ABs.

Player	! yr PA	1 yr OBP	1 yr slug	4 yr weighted PA	4 yr OBP	4 yr slug
Hinske	109	.394	.604	1574	.349	.454
Hillenbrand	204	.332	.469	1888	.333	.448

Hmm. 16 points of OBP, 6 point of slugging percentage, 1/2 the double play rate, and more speed on the bases if Hinske starts against a right-handed pitcher instead of Hillenbrand. As well, this approach will give John Gibbons a better tactical option when a right-handed pitcher starts and a LOOGY comes on to face Adams and later Catalanotto. Rather than pinch-hitting with McDonald for Adams and then Johnson for Catalanotto, Hillenbrand would be a valuable pinch-hitting weapon. It seems to me to be very difficult to argue against a platoon at the DH slot. This would not mean that Hillenbrand would not play against right-handed pitchers. Troy Glaus will need a day off every once in awhile, and Hillenbrand can play third. Alex Rios will need a day off every once in a while; Hinske has shown that he can play the outfield effectively, and Hillenbrand can DH on these occasions.

There has been similar discussion with respect to the use of Benjie Molina rather than Gregg Zaun against right-handed pitchers. Let's run the numbers against right-handed pitching:

Player	1 yr PA	1 yr OBP	1 yr slug	4 yr weighted PA	4 yr OBP	4 yr slug
Zaun	140	.396	.552	1181	.367	.443
Molina	141	.317	.379	1281	.311	.372

Wow. 56 points of OBP, 71 points of slugging percentage, and more speed on the basepaths and a lower double play rate. The only reasons to play Molina instead of Zaun against a right-handed pitcher are to give Zaun a rest if a number of them pitch in a row, and overwhelming preference on the part of a particular starter.

Many of John Gibbons' decisions to date have followed from his inclination to play the hot hand. Now that performances have begun to stabilize, a longer look back is valuable for planning usage patterns over the second half. There are some gains to be made that could help offset some modest declines that can be reasonably expected to occur.

27 comments

https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20060705224612336