The Rotation

Monday, June 05 2006 @ 06:45 PM EDT

Contributed by: Magpie

Two months in the books, a third of the season. Let's check in on the Blue Jays rotation.

As is my custom, I will Game Scores to help Organize the Material; so let me cut and paste a little bit here so we all know just what Game Scores are.

When Bill James devised the Game Score back in the late 1980s, it was his hope that the "average" start would score at about 50. It didn't quite work out that way, as even in 1988 the average Game Score proved to be a little bit lower than 50, but it was certainly close enough for government work. Offense has increased over the past two decades, and the average Game Score has declined accordingly - but 50 is still reasonably close to the middle. Last year, Blue Jays' starters averaged Game Scores of 49.8 per game - the starters had a 4.20 ERA, which was 6th in the AL and 14 in the majors. This year, the starters' Game Scores are down to 46.8 - their ERA of 4.98 ranks 8th in the AL and 21st in the majors.

Anyway, you calculate a Game Score this way:

Start with 50 points.
Add 1 point for each out recorded.
Add 2 points for each inning completed after the 4th.
Add 1 point for each strikeout.
Subtract 2 points for each hit allowed.
Subtract 4 points for each earned run allowed.
Subtract 2 points for each unearned run allowed.
Subtract 1 point for each walk.

Here is how the Game Scores have been distributed this year:

GS	Games	Pitcher's Team  Pitchers
                Record    Record
90+	 0	  - 	    - 	
80-89    2       2-0      2-0   Halladay (1), Janssen (1)
70-79    4       4-0      4-0   Halladay (2), Janssen (1), Lilly (1)
60-69    4       3-1      3-1   Lilly (2), Halladay (1), Towers (1)
50-59   12       7-2     10-2   Halladay (4), Chacin (4), Lilly (2), Janssen (2)
40-49   14       4-8      5-9   Lilly (3), Towers (2), Chacin (2), Burnett (2), Janssen (2), 
                                Downs (1), Halladay (1), Taubenheim (1)
30-39    7       1-4      3-4   Lilly (2), Towers (2), Halladay (1), Chacin (1), Janssen (1)
20-29    7       0-4      2-5   Towers (3), Lilly (1), Chacin (1), Downs (1), Taubenheim (1) 
0-19     2       0-2      0-2   Towers (2)

What I want to do next is compare this to last year: what percentage of starts have been in a given range, and what relation does it have to the team's winning percentage been.

GS     Games  % of Games Winning Pct.  Games % of Games  Winning Pct.   
90+       0      0.0        ---           1       0.6     1.000
80-89     2      3.8       1.000          2       1.2     1.000
70-79     4      7.7       1.000         16       9.9      .938
60-69     4      7.7        .750         31      19.1      .581
50-59    12     23.1        .833         35      21.6      .629
40-49    14     33.3        .357         30      18.5      .300
30-39     7     13.5        .429         27      16.7      .333
20-29     7     13.5        .286         14       8.6      .286
0-19      2      3.8        .000          6       3.7      .000

The difference is extremely easy to spot, is it not? Move roughly two-thirds of the 60-69 games (which should almost always be a win) and drop them into the 40-49 range. Last year, almost one start in three scored at 60 or better (50 of 162); this year, it's been more like one in five. The starters most likely to provide this level of performance last year were Roy Halladay and Dave Bush - Doc delivered this type of outing in two-thirds of his 2005 starts. He's been pretty good this year, as well - just not quite as good as last year.

The good news is that these games have almost become automatic victories in 2006 - the Jays have lost just once when they received a 60+ game from a starter. This was most definitely not the case with the 2005 team, and I think there are two reasons for this: Troy Glaus (well, not just Glaus, but the improved offense for which he may stand as a symbol) and B.J. Ryan. If a starter pitches well enough to post a Game Score of 60 or better, the game is much more likely to bypass this year's somewhat shaky middle relief crew, and proceed straight to the closer. Ryan has obviously been a huge upgrade at the end of the game, and it's leading to Real Wins.

Last year's team lost 14 games despite this type of performance by the starter, and in exactly half of those games, it was the bullpen that took the loss (three times in relief of Josh Towers.) The hard-luck starters who actually lost games despite these outstanding performances? Halladay, Chacin, and Lilly were each victimized once, and Dave Bush four (!) times. So far this year, the only comparable Tough Loss is Lilly's game against the Angels, the one and only time the Blue Jays have been shut out in 2006.

It seems logical to conclude that the increased run production is the major reason the team is winning more often when the starter's performance is in the 40-49 range. This is a very good thing - that's the type of start they've been getting most of the time this year. I'm not inclined to give a whole lot of credit to the middle relievers, at any rate. Gustavo Chacin has 3 of these Cheap Wins already (Game Score below 50). Last year, none of the starters had more than two Cheap Wins - Roy Halladay didn't have any, and Dave Bush had just one.

Here, for your Pondering Pleasure, is the complete list of Game Scores through the end of May. I shall most likely do another progress report in a couple of months, at the end of July...

	        DATE	OPP	RESULT	IP    H	 R  ER	HR BB  SO GB  FB  PIT  BF GSc  DEC

Janssen	        May 17	@LAA	W 3-0	8     2	 0   0	0   0	3   9 10   88  26  81  W (2-3)
Halladay	May 8	LAA	W 5-1	9     4	 1   1	0   1	6  18  3   98  32  80  W (4-1)
Halladay	May 13	@TB	W 8-1	9     3	 1   1	1   1	3  17  6   90  28  79  W (5-1)
Janssen	        May 7	LAA	W 3-1	7.1   1	 0   0	0   1	3  16  4   86  26  78  W (1-2)
Halladay	May 23	TB	W 4-1	8.2   7	 1   1	0   0	7  16  2  110  30  73  W (6-1)
Lilly	        Apr. 13	@BOS	W 8-6	7     6	 1   1	0   0  10   8  7  100  28  71  W (1-0)
Towers	        May 14	@TB	W 8-3	8     5	 3   2	1   0	2  11  9   76  28  64  W (1-7)
Halladay	Apr. 4	MIN	W 6-3	7.2   5	 3   2	0   2   4  16  3   88  29  63  W (1-0)
Lilly	        May 6	LAA	L 0-3	7     5	 2   2	1   3	6   6  9  106  28  62  L (3-2)
Lilly	        May 1	@BAL	W 9-7	7.2   5	 3   2	1   2	4  12  9  116  31  61  W (3-1)
Lilly	        May 26	CWS	W 8-2	6.1   5	 2   2	2   4	7   7  9  110  28  58  W (5-4)
Chacin	        Apr. 25	BAL	W 7-3	7     6	 3   3	2   1	4  10  9   91  26  56  W (4-0)
Halladay	Apr. 28	@NYY	W 7-2	5.1   7	 0   0	0   1	3  13  3   99  22  56  W (3-1)
Chacin	        Apr. 30	@NYY	L 1-4	6     6	 2   2	1   3	6   5  9  110  26  55  L (4-1)
Chacin	        Apr. 6	MIN	W 6-3	6.2   6	 3   3	0   1	4  10  7   88  26  53  W (1-0)
Lilly	        May 11	OAK	W 8-3	7.2   6	 3   3	2   4	2  12  9  119  31  53  W (4-2)
Halladay	May 29	BOS	W 7-6	7     7	 3   3	2   0	2   6 11   97  28  53
Halladay	Apr. 22	BOS	W 8-1	5     6	 1   1	0   1   2   9  5   90  21  52  W (2-1)
Janssen	        May 27	CWS	W 3-2	5.1   7	 1   1	0   2   3  13  3  102  25  51	
Chacin	        May 5	LAA	W 13-3	5.1   6	 2   2	0   1   3   5  7   91  23  50  W (5-1)
Janssen	        May 12	@TB	L 1-4	7     7	 4   4	0   1   4  11  5  107  26  50  L (1-3)
Halladay	May 18	@LAA	W 8-4	7     8	 4   4	1   2   7  10  6   93  31  50	
Janssen	        May 22	TB	W 6-4	6.2   6	 4   4	2   0   3  13  6  103  26  49  W (3-3)
Lilly	        Apr. 26	BAL	W 8-2	5     6	 2   2	1   2   3   4  6   92  21  48  W (2-1)
Chacin	        May 30	BOS	W 8-5	5     4	 2   2	0   4   1   8  6   88  23  48  W (6-1)
Downs	        Apr. 7	TB	L 8-9	5     6	 3   3	1   0   4  11  0   71  20  47	
Burnett	        Apr. 15	@CWS	L 2-4	6     7	 4   4	2   1   5  12  8   95  27  46  L (0-1)
Lilly	        Apr. 19	NYY	L 1-3	5     7	 2   2	1   5   5   7  4  101  26  45  L (1-1)
Taubenheim	May 20	@COL	L 1-5	5     5	 3   3	1   3   3   7  6   86  25  45  L (0-1)
Halladay	Apr. 9	TB	L 2-5	7.1   8	 5   5	1   2   4  12  5   94  31  44  L (1-1)
Chacin	        Apr. 12	@BOS	W 8-4	5     5	 3   3	2   4   3   3  9   90  24  44  W (2-0)
Burnett	        Apr. 21	BOS	W 7-6	4     5	 3   3	2   1   5   6  3   78  18  44	
Janssen	        Apr. 27	BAL	L 5-7	4     3	 3   2	0   3   0   7  4   95  20  43  L (0-1)
Towers	        May 9	OAK	L 5-6	4     5	 3   3	2   1   4   5  5   61  18  43  L (0-7)
Lilly	        May 16	@LAA	L 3-8	4.1   5	 3   3	1   3   4   6  6   83  21  42  L (4-3)
Towers	        Apr. 11	@BOS	L 3-5	6     8	 4   4  0   3   4   9  7  102  28  41  L (0-2)
Janssen	        May 2	@BAL	L 2-9	6     8	 5   5	1   0   3  11  6   81  25  39  L (0-2)
Towers	        Apr. 23	BOS	L 3-6	5.2   7	 4   4	1   3   1  10  7   95  29  37  L (0-4)
Chacin	        Apr. 18	NYY	W 10-5	6     7	 5   5	2   3   1  10  8  104  26  36  W (3-0)
Halladay	May 3	@BOS	W 7-6	6     9	 5   5 	0   2   2  11  9  105  28  34	
Towers	        May 19	@COL	L 3-8	5     8	 5   5	2   1   2   9  6   75  24  32  L (1-8)
Lilly	        Apr. 8	TB	W 8-4	2.1   4	 4   3 	0   6   2   3  2   67  17  31	
Lilly	        May 31	BOS	L 6-8	4     5	 5   5	2   4   2   5  6   79  19  31  L (5-5)
Towers	        Apr. 5	MIN	L 4-13	4.2  10	 5   4	1   0	3   7  4   70  23  29  L (0-1)
Downs	        Apr. 14	@CWS	W 13-7	2     4	 5   5	1   4   3   3  0   59  28  27	
Chacin	        May 10	OAK	W 9-7	3     6	 5   5	3   3   2   2  8   72  18  26	
Towers	        May 24	TB	L 8-10	1.2   6	 4   4	1   1   0   2  5   43  12  26	
Lilly	        May 21	@COL	L 3-5	1.2   6	 5   4	0   2   1   2  4   68  14  24  L (4-4)
Taubenheim	May 28	CWS	L 5-7	2.1   6	 5   4	0   4   1   4  1   61  16  24  L (0-2)
Towers	        Apr. 16	@CWS	L 4-6	2     7	 5   5	2   2   2   6  2   59  15  22  L (0-3)
Towers	        May 4	@BOS	L 4-7	5.2  11  7   7	1   2   2   5 14   89  29  19  L (0-6)
Towers	        Apr. 29	@NYY	L 6-17	2.1   6	 7   7	2   1   2   4  6   61  15  18  L (0-5)

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