Tomorrow is draft day, a day of hope and excitement in thirty major league cities. The truth however is that reaching the major leagues is a long shot for most players selected. Teams expect their first round pick will make an impact in the major leagues but after that they hope that one or two, of the other 49 players picked, make it. If three players from a draft become major league regulars that draft would be considered to be excellent. I thought we should take a quick look back at the Jays drafts under JP Ricciardi to see what expectations we should have for tomorrow.
In 2002 Russ Adams was JP's first number one selection and Adams did make it to the major leagues. The Jays number 2 pick, David Bush, is also a major leaguer but after that the pickings are slim. Adam Peterson, the number four pick, had a cup of coffee in the big leagues but there is no-one else who is expected to make an impact in the big leagues. Several players from the 2002 draft are on the Jays AA roster, Eric Arnold (#10), David Smith (#15), Eric Kratz (#29), Carlo Cota (#33), Brad Hassey (#19) and, until last week, Jordan DeJong (#18). Russell Savickas, one of the Jays few high school choices at number 9, is pitching well for Lansing.
In summary it looks like the Jays number 1 and 2 choices were good, with a few long-shots still left behind them.
In 2003 Aaron Hill was the Jays first choice. After Hill the Jays have a gaggle of pitchers who are prospects but not of the "can't-miss" variety. Josh Banks (#2), Shaun Marcum (#3), Jamie Vermilyea (#9) and Tom Mastny (#11) are all control type pitchers who are pitching in AAA with mixed success, Kurt Isenberg (#4) is in AA. The best hitters are Ryan Roberts (#18) who is in AAA, and Vito Chiaravalloti (#15) in AA.
This draft looks like an average draft, the number one pick makes it with some prospects behind him.
In 2004 the best player, so far, is the number 4 pick, Casey Janssen. Zack Jackson, taken in the first supplementary round, was just recalled by the Brewers. The Jays number one pick, David Purcey is still developing his game in AAA but he does have potential. The #2 pick, Curtis Thigpen, and the #3 pick, Adam Lind, are in AA two years after the draft which is promising, as is #9 pick Chip Cannon. Also in AA are pitchers Kyle Yates (#13), Michael MacDonald (#15) and Danny Hill (#3s). Jesse Litsch who was a junior college draft and follow selection at number 24 is in Dunedin and is still only 21 years old.
2004 looks like the best of the JP drafts, helped by extra picks in the first and third rounds.
Ricky Romero was the #1 pick in 2005 and is in Dunedin. Connor Falkenbach at pick #43 is in AA but the prospects for side-arming relievers are always questionable. Ryan Patterson (#4), Eric Fowler (#5), and Robert Ray (#7) are also playing in Dunedin. A few other 2005 players are doing well, Billy Carnline, Anthony Hatch and Sean Shoffit to name three.
One notable observation about the JP drafts is that the Jays have not got "lucky" with a lower pick. When a pick below number five succeeds it is a bonus as the other thirty teams passed that player up to five times. Most of the Jays success has been with their high picks, the Jays should be "due" for a pick in the teens to be a surprise major-leaguer.
I would grade the JP drafts as follows:
2004 - Janssen, Jackson and several prospects.
2002 - Adams and Bush are two major leaguers
2003 - Hill and possibles
2005 - Romero and Patterson are the two top prospects but neither is a sure bet at this stage
How would you rank those drafts?
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