The Decline and Fall of Josh Towers
Thursday, June 01 2006 @ 07:57 AM EDT
Contributed by: Dave Till
I was thinking about Josh Towers the other day, and I was wondering: how much of his decline was due to loss of command, and how much of it was due to being forced to perform in situations not suited to his skills?
To try to answer that question, I looked up all of Towers' 2005 starts on the ESPN web site. (Which was a frustrating exercise, as it tends to seize up every now and again in Firefox.) Here's what I found (warning: one huge muthafreakin table):
| Date | Team | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR |
|---|
| Apr 6 | TB (A) | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1 |
| Apr 12 | Oak (A) | 6.2 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Apr 17 | Tex (A) | 2 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Apr 22 | Bal (H) | 6 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 2 |
| Apr 28 | TB (H) | 6.2 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
| May 3 | Bal (A) | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
| May 9 | KC (H) | 8 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| May 17 | Min (A) | 5 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| May 22 | Was (H) | 4.1 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| May 27 | Min (H) | 6 | 14 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 2 |
| Jun 2 | Oak (A) | 4.1 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| Jun 7 | ChC (A) | 5.1 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| Jun 12 | Hou (A) | 7 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| Jun 19 | Mil (H) | 5.1 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Jun 24 | Was (A) | 6 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Jun 29 | TB (A) | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Jul 5 | Oak (H) | 4 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Jul 10 | Tex (A) | 6 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Jul 16 | TB (H) | 4 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Jul 21 | Sea (H) | 7 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Jul 27 | LAA (H) | 6.2 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Aug 3 | ChW (A) | 7.2 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 1 |
| Aug 8 | NYY (H) | 6 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| Aug 13 | TB (H) | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Aug 18 | LAA (A) | 6.2 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Aug 23 | NYY (A) | 7 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| Aug 28 | Cle (H) | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 |
| Sep 3 | TB (H) | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| Sep 9 | TB (A) | 6 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Sep 14 | Bos (H) | 8 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 |
| Sep 20 | Sea (H) | 6 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Sep 25 | NYY (A) | 7 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Sep 30 | KC (H) | 9 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
What these numbers tell me is that Towers lived on the edge in '05 more than we might have remembered. He got off to a good start, which helped hide the fact that he went into something of a tailspin in late May and early June: his pitching lines in those games strongly resemble this year's Towers outings. Note, in particular, the sudden relative loss of control.
There were two major differences between 2005 and 2006 that, between them, have scuttled Josh's career:
In 2005, the Jays were on the fringe of the pennant race. The club played .500 ball all year, so it didn't matter all that much if Towers was having a bad few weeks. And Towers wasn't the only starter who was struggling: Mr. T. Lilly, Esq., was having more than his usual share of ups and downs.
In 2005, Towers had a much easier schedule. While he did eventually pitch against tough opponents such as the Yankees, the Red Sox, and the White Sox, he didn't face any of these teams until August. And, knowing Towers as we do, what would be the toughest teams for him to face? Teams with both power and patience: Josh makes his living by hitting his spots, and tends to give up fly balls. Patient teams can lay off the borderline pitches or foul them off, and power-hitting teams are more likely to punish his mistakes.
Now, let's take a look at Towers' 2006 outings:
| Date | Team | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR |
|---|
| Apr 5 | Min (H) | 4.2 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| Apr 11 | Bos (A) | 6 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Apr 16 | ChW (A) | 2 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Apr 23 | Bos (H) | 5.2 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Apr 29 | NYY (A) | 2.1 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| May 4 | Bos (A) | 5.2 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| May 9 | Oak (H) | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 |
| May 14 | TB (A) | 8 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| May 19 | Col (A) | 5 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| May 24 | TB (H) | 1.2 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Talk about an ordeal by fire! After a poor outing against the Twins, he had to face, in succession, the Red Sox, the White Sox, the Red Sox again, the Yankees, and the Red Sox yet again. That's a tough assignment. Then, just as he was beginning to find his feet, he was forced to pitch in Colorado - a ballpark almost specifically designed to render pitchers such as Towers useless. After that, his confidence shot, he got bombed by Tampa Bay, and he's now enjoying the scenic delights of Upstate New York.
I'm wondering: had the Jays not been forced to endure the Schedule Of Pain, and had Towers been given easier opponents, would he have been able to find his range, keep his confidence, and continue to be a useful member of the starting rotation? Pitchers who need pinpoint control to survive are living on a knife edge, and I don't question the decision to dump him, but I'm thinking that his skill set hasn't actually changed. Given restored confidence, and an easier schedule, Towers might still be a useful pitcher for somebody, somewhere.
And I can't help but think that what happened to Josh Towers could happen to any of us. A couple of bad months, some unexpected misfortune, and boom! It's time to hit the road.
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