Welcome to another view of the Blue Jays at the quarter pole. This article is remarkably analysis-free.
Russ Adams
At this point, I don't know: he isn't doing anything particularly well. I don't see how he is going to improve enough to be a quality player. Of course, I was saying that about Rios in April. Any time I give up on a player, he blossoms. It's a tough job, but somebody's got to do it.
Frank Catalanotto
He must have made an adjustment at the plate, as he's never walked this much before. What's he doing differently? I can't see it. Help.
Troy Glaus
I like the ads on the subway that feature Glaus: "Meet the new head of HR." It's great to have a player who is (a) having a great season with the bat and (b) playing at his established level of ability. I'm used to seeing these guys on other teams, or playing for the Jays and then signing for other teams as expensive free agents. Five years ago, he would have become a Yankee.
Aaron Hill
He's the best .200 hitter I've ever seen. I don't mean this as a slur, or a backhanded compliment; he just looks like he's going to be a good major league player. Of course, I'm a lousy scout. Orlando Hudson isn't hitting much better, and isn't fielding much better. In mathematical terms, Glaus - Koskie > Hudson - Hill.
Shea Hillenbrand
I can't think of anything to say about Shea. He's an established talent, playing at about one click better than his norm.
In every player's career, there is some point at which they must realize that they're aren't going to get any better, and that it's all downhill from here. I'll have another, bartender; thank you.
Eric Hinske
He is what he is. As a 25th man, he is useful, as he can serve as an emergency fill-in at third, the outfield, or first. He runs well enough to pinch-run, and he hits well enough to pinch-hit. He's better than, say, J.T. Snow or Bubba Crosby (to pick equivalent players on the divisional rivals). That's damning with faint praise, isn't it?
Reed Johnson
It's probably worth remembering that Sparky has a history of streaks and slumps. He tends to play well for a short period of time, only to drop into a slump once his Energizer Battery runs down. But that doesn't mean he isn't a valuable player, and this hot streak has been better than his past ones: he's got a .473 on-base percentage as I write this, and has scored nearly a run a game.
John McDonald
Let's not get carried away here. Mac is a tremendous fielder, but he can't hit at all. He shouldn't be playing too often, as the team can't afford an offensive hole this large. (If Adams doesn't hit, the Jays need to find somebody else.) He's still a useful man to have on the roster, though, as every team needs a good glove on the bench.
Bengie Molina
Did you know that he has only struck out seven times all year? That ranks him 12th on the team. He has more extra-base hits than strikeouts. Not a star, but a little bit better than most catchers. And every little bit better counts. So what if he can't outrun a turtle or your grandmother (or your grandmother's turtle, or your turtle's grandmother)?
Lyle Overbay
He's like one of those quiet, mild-mannered ninjas who looks unthreatening but quietly beats you up. Then bows politely afterwards. Thank you for the lesson, Overbay-san. I hurt all over now.
Alex Rios
For a couple of years, I've been writing that Rios's upside is Dave Winfield, but I've been telling a lie: his upside is Vladimir Guerrero. Like Vlad, Alex isn't drawing walks because he's too busy hitting the first pitch within reach for extra bases. And, again like Vlad, Alex has a world-class arm in right.
I still think that an adjustment period awaits. Eventually, pitchers will do to him what they did to Delgado: they'll throw him nothing but nibbly off-speed stuff on the corners, and will see whether he'll lay off it. This means, if all goes well, that his walks will go up and his power will go down. That's perfectly okay - he can get on base, and Wells and Glaus can drive him home. It's all good.
Vernon Wells
In 2005, everybody was asking too much of him. His job description called for him to field like Devon White, hit like Carlos Delgado, and serve as the team leader. All at the age of 26. I postulate that Glaus's arrival and the development of Rios have liberated Wells: all he needs to do is be one of a bunch of good hitters. Which, paradoxically, frees him to be much more. It's a Zen thing.
Gregg Zaun
Y'know, this might all be for the best. In the past, Zaun has shown signs of fatigue as the season wore on: playing as hard as he does has to be wearing him out, especially since he's on the high side of 30. Now, playing in spots, he's refreshed, and he's hitting the snot out of the ball (to use a technical term). How many teams have two catchers this good?
A.J. Burnett
The worst-case scenario isn't that he doesn't come back until after the all-star break: the worst-case scenario is that he never pitches again. I don't think it's going to be that bad, but it bears repeating: the human arm was not meant to take the strain of pitching. And Duane Ward, among others, was initially diagnosed as having tendinitis.
Gus Chacin
Will his new cologne help cure a sore arm? If I recall correctly, the slogan for Chacin the cologne is "A curveball for the senses". It's little things like this that keep me going.
Vinnie Chulk
I'm sure that, by now, he's heard all sorts of supposedly encouraging maxims, such as "When the going gets tough, the tough get going," and "When life hands you a lemon, make lemonade." And I'm sure he regularly tells these well-meaning people to fold their maxims eight ways and jam them into a rather personal area. Has he rented an apartment in Syracuse, or is he expecting to come up again very soon?
Scott Downs
"Thank you for purchasing this generic left-handed pitcher. With proper care and use, your generic left-handed pitcher should provide you with many years of trouble-free service. Be sure to store your generic left-handed pitcher in a clean, dry and room temperature environment. Once you have used your generic left-handed pitcher, be sure to allow plenty of time for rest and recharge. Warranty null and void if used to pitch to Manny Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez, or any other dominant right-handed power hitter. Do not taunt your generic left-handed pitcher."
Jason Frasor
I think that the only reason he got sent down was because this allowed Gibbons to bring up fresh arms from Syracuse to cover a temporary case of the pitching shorts. His good outing in the last Anaheim series should move him back to #4 on the bullpen depth chart (behind, in order, Ryan, Speier, and Schoeneweis).
Roy Halladay
His K/IP ratio is down a bit, but that's mostly because his stuff is moving a lot and batters are obligingly hitting six-hoppers to second. He has shown himself to be a mere mortal at times, but I wouldn't trade him for any other pitcher in baseball. Would you?
Casey Janssen
I'm wondering whether it's possible to scout poise. Some young pitchers seem overwhelmed by the idea of pitching in the majors: when they are facing the hitters they used to see only on television or on baseball cards, they start thinking that they have to make perfect pitches in order to survive. Other young pitchers just continue doing what they have been doing, and discover, to their delight, that they can get major league hitters out the same way they've been getting minor league hitters out. Janssen has this poise: he is pitching as if he's always belonged in the major leagues, and now he does.
However, his K/IP ratio is a red flag: he's not striking out many batters, and I'm wondering whether he'll start getting clobbered if he stops hitting his spots. But he's inducing grounders, which means his margin of success is greater than Towers'.
And for those of you who still miss Dave Bush: this guy does exactly the same things Bush does, but doesn't allow home runs.
Ted Lilly
Back in March, if you had told me that Lilly would be the team's most dependable and reliable starter, I would have laughed until I cried. And, to a certain extent, he's been doing it with mirrors: you can't allow a hit an inning and two walks every three innings and remain successful in the majors. But I no longer brace myself for inevitable disappointment when he is announced as the starting pitcher.
Dustin McGowan
I don't understand why he wants to be in the bullpen. And I didn't understand why the Jays called him up: he wasn't doing that well in Syracuse. But he's still a good prospect: if he was in Tampa Bay, he'd be in the starting rotation right now.
Francisco Rosario
Lots of potential; not sure about the actual yet. But it's easier to teach a hard thrower to find the strike zone than to teach a control pitcher to throw hard. If he was in Tampa Bay, he'd be in the starting rotation right now.
B.J. Ryan
Let us take a moment to meditate on B.J.'s numbers. 18 2/3 innings. 6 hits allowed. 4 walks. 20 strikeouts. Zero home runs allowed. One run allowed, period. An 0.48 earned run average. Ommmmmmmmmm.
What would he fetch on the free-agent market if he were to be let loose now? Theo Epstein would buy him half of Massachusetts. I wouldn't trade him for any other relief pitcher in baseball.
Scott Schoeneweis
I'm not worried about him: he just has a very bad day every now and again. For obvious reasons, he's not being used as much in the eighth and ninth innings. One advantage of having a left-handed closer: you rarely see the Jays start the inning with a right-hander, switch to Schoeneweis, and then bring in another right-hander. Mid-inning pitching changes are about as boring as watching the Tax Tips Channel (or the Golf Channel).
Justin Speier
I swear that, during his delivery, his right elbow touches his left ear. Prove me wrong.
Josh Towers
Towers' problems have been obvious - he hasn't been hitting his spots with superhuman accuracy the way he did last year, and his stuff isn't good enough to allow him to get away with mistakes. But the schedule has hurt him: he's been forced to pitch a lot against teams that can foul off the borderline strikes off which Towers makes his living. I seem to recall that he had trouble last year against the Red Sox and Yankees, and he's already had to face them a lot. He might do better once he gets to face mere mortals, in ordinary-size ballparks, at sea level.
Pete Walker
More of the same from P-Walk: reliable middle and long relief, but not suitable for use elsewhere. If he was in Tampa Bay, he would be, etc.
Overall
To me, the Jays seem to be like a precision automobile that's missing one or two key parts. I don't think that this is going to be the year. But I still think that the Jays are on track to becoming one of the Big Boys in the AL East. The gap was never likely to be bridged in a single year, and this is an important transition year. Attendance should increase enough to keep Rogers from losing money, so they will be able to continue to afford to fund the team. And the Yanks and Sox will keep getting older and more injury-prone.
I also believe that the pitching is better than it has seemed so far, and the offense isn't as good as it has looked. With the roof closed, the Rogers Centre is a launching pad, particularly for right-handed power hitters; in the summer, some of those balls are going to die on the warning track. Josh Towers, among others, must be anxiously checking the weather forecasts.
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