Draft Preview

Monday, May 15 2006 @ 08:00 PM EDT

The draft is on June 6th and 7th. The Jays select 14th and it looks like it'll be another first round pitcher.

Here's a list of Baseball America's top 20 from about a month ago. Twelve of that top 20 are made of college pitchers, 4 college hitters, 3 high school pitchers, and one high school hitter. So as you can probably deduct the top of the draft will likely be full of college players. The Jays are probably the most college oriented team in baseball right now and Tony LaCava stated in a Batter's Box interview that the Jays wouldn't be likely to select high school pitchers so don't expect that to change this year.

As you're probably aware the Jays lost two draft picks this year because of signing AJ Burnett and BJ Ryan. Because of that they'll pick 14th in the frst round and then wait until the 4th round to pick again. The good part about the baseball draft (if you're following live) is that a pick is made just about every minute so it'll be about 90 minutes between the first and second Jays pick (#120).


Starting Pitchers (stats through games of 5/14):

Andrew Miller, LHP, North Carolina, 6'6", 210

Year	Innings	ERA	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	H/9
2006	81.2	1.87	9.6	2.5	0.1	7.2
2005	96.2	2.98	9.7	4.9	0.4	7.3
2004	89.0	2.93	8.9	4.9	0.5	6.5

Brad Lincoln, RHP, Houston, 6'0", 200

Year	Innings	ERA	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	H/9
2006	113	1.67	11.2	2.1	0.6	6.4
2005	102.0	4.76	9.4	2.2	1.1	10.9
2004	56.2	4.29	5.6	3.0	0.3	9.6

Tim Lincecum, RHP, Washington, 6'0", 185

Year	Innings	ERA	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	H/9
2006	109.1	2.06	14.4	4.6	0.6	5.2
2005	104.1	3.11	11.3	6.1	0.3	5.4
2004	112.1	3.53	12.9	6.6	0.4	6.7

Luke Hochevar, RHP, Tennessee

Year	Innings	ERA	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	H/9
2005	139.2	2.26	10.0	3.5	0.6	6.7
2004	63.0	2.86	8.6	3.3	1.0	7.4
2003	77.2	4.64	8.5	2.8	1.0	10.1

Brandon Morrow, RHP, Cal, 6'3", 185

Year	Innings	ERA	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	H/9
2006	93.1	1.74	9.3	3.5	0.5	6.3
2005	25.0	9.36	9.0	7.2	1.1	11.5
2004	29.2	6.07	5.5	5.9	0.9	10.8

These are likely the top 5 pitchers in the draft, and the Jays won't likely get a shot at any of them. As mentioned, Miller is considered the best of the bunch.

Lincoln and Lincecum are similar - both having great years with big strikeout numbers and both are on the shorter side. There's some thought that Lincecum is better suited as a reliever.

You might remember Luke Hochevar from last year's draft. Going into that draft he, Ricky Romero and Mike Pelfrey were considered the top 3 pitchers. Hochevar lasted until the sandwich round (due to his bonus demands) where the Dodgers selected him, but he never officially signed with the team. He's pitching with an independent team at the moment and barring an upset will be drafted again. Coincidentally, Hochevar is on the same team as Matt Harrington who turned down several million many years ago, went back into the draft and turned down about a million, and then never got serious offer again.

Brandon Morrow is the high riser in the group. He went from an erratic reliever to a top flight starter. These type of players make me nervous.


After the top 5 pitchers you run into several pitchers that have some sort of question surrounding them.

Joba Chamberlain, RHP, Nebraska, 6'3", 225

Year	Innings	ERA	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	H/9
2006	69.2	3.75	10.8	3.8	0.4	7.8
2005	118.2	2.81	9.9	2.5	0.5	6.9

Max Scherzer, RHP, Missouri, 6'2", 198

Year	Innings	ERA	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	H/9
2006	52.2	2.22	10.0	3.3	0.5	6.4
2005	106.1	1.86	11.1	3.5	0.3	5.0

Ian Kennedy, RHP, USC, 6'1", 195

Year	Innings	ERA	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	H/9
2006	88	3.48	8.8	3.0	0.3	8.6
2005	117.0	2.54	12.2	2.9	0.5	6.5
2004	92.2	2.91	11.7	3.0	0.4	8.4

Chamerlain had a problem with tricep tendonitis early this year so he hasn't pitched as much as other pitchers. However, when he has been out there he's been flashing a high K rate. He also has a cool name and a built-in nickname.

Scherzer has also had problems with tendonitis this year. If he overcomes that in the next month he'll shoot up into that first group, unless the Boras factor comes into play.

Ian Kennedy is a personal favorite of mine. Also, a Boras client, Kennedy dominated at USC as a freshman and sophmore and had a lot of success with team USA in the offseasons. He reportedly has lost some velocity this year, and it shows up in his stat line. His 'stuff' isn't highly regarded, but his competitiveness is. He could go in the top 10 or the end of the first round.


After that you get many similar pitchers who look alike:

Daniel Bard, RHP, North Carolina, 6'4", 202

Year	Innings	ERA	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	H/9
2006	72	3.75	9.8	3.6	0.5	7.3
2005	89.2	4.22	7.8	4.3	0.8	7.4
2004	95.0	3.88	6.4	2.9	0.7	8.9

Wade LeBlanc, LHP, Alabama, 6'3", 193

Year	Innings	ERA	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	H/9
2006	102	3.00	8.9	3.2	1.1	6.4
2005	88.0	4.09	11.0	2.9	0.8	7.9
2004	112.2	2.08	7.9	2.1	0.6	7.0

Brett Sinkbeil, RHP, Missouri St, 6'4", 185

Year	Innings	ERA	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	H/9
2006	59.2	2.26	9.6	3.0	0.3	6.1
2005	87.1	4.84	10.0	3.0	0.9	9.8
2004	84.0	3.11	9.0	3.6	0.9	7.1

Dallas Buck, RHP, Oregon St, 6'3", 210

Year	Innings	ERA	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	H/9
2006	85.2	3.15	6.5	4.5	0.4	6.7
2005	129.0	2.09	8.2	3.6	0.2	6.3
2004	69.1	5.06	7.4	3.9	0.7	9.5

David Huff, LHP, UCLA 6'2" 210

Year	Innings	ERA	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	H/9
2006	107.1	2.77	7.6	1.8	0.9	8.3
2004	42.0	3.00	5.6	2.1	0.4	10.9

Justin Masterson, RHP, San Diego St, 6'6", 245

Year	Innings	ERA	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	H/9
2006	111	4.54	8.5	1.9	0.6	9.3

Kyle McCoulloch, RHP, Texas, 6'3", 178

Year	Innings	ERA	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	H/9
2006	93.2	2.98	7.2	2.3	0.1	8.7
2005	138.2	2.92	6.4	2.9	0.4	8.9
2004	52.2	3.25	5.9	3.1	0.2	8.3

Greg Reynolds, RHP, Stanford, 6'7", 225

Year	Innings	ERA	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	H/9
2006	96.2	3.17	7.5	2.2	0.6	8.0
2005	51.1	5.08	9.0	3.0	0.7	9.0
2004	27.0	6.00	5.0	4.0	1.3	10.0

Relievers:

There's several pitchers that currently relieving that could be a consideration in the first round. I'm not sure if any of these pitchers would be considered as starters.

Mark Melancon, RHP, Arizona, 6'2" 210

Year	Innings	ERA	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	H/9
2006	39.1	2.97	12.0	3.5	0.0	7.8
2005	66.1	2.58	9.4	2.9	0.3	7.1
2004	62.1	4.33	6.7	2.8	0.7	8.0

Chris Perez, RHP, Miami, 6'4", 225

Year	Innings	ERA	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	H/9
2006	40	1.58	11.0	4.3	0.0	5.4
2005	45.2	2.56	10.4	5.0	0.4	6.8

Blair Erickson, RHP, UC Irvine, 6'1", 210

Year	Innings	ERA	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	H/9
2006	45.2	2.17	9.8	5.4	0.2	6.6
2005	35.0	1.80	13.4	5.7	0.3	4.1
2004	37.1	4.10	12.4	5.1	0.7	8.0

Pitchers that pitched for team USA this past summer, which generally would be the better players, include: Kennedy, Scherzer, McCulloch, Melancon, and Perez.

As we've seen in past years the Jays have selected a lot of players that have played in the Cape Cod list. At least Miller, Lincoln, Lincecum, Bard, LeBlanc, Sinkbeil, Buck and Huff pitched in the Cape League last summer, all with a lot of success.


Hitters:

Evan Longoria, 3B, Long Beach St, 6'2", 185

Year	ABs	Ave	OBP	SLG	K/BB	K%
2006	173	0.364	0.491	0.613	0.7	11.9%
2005	228	0.320	0.368	0.421	2.9	16.7%

Drew Stubbs, OF, Texas, 6'4", 190

Year	ABs	Ave	OBP	SLG	K/BB	K%
2006	205	0.337	0.436	0.595	1.5	21.5%
2005	283	0.311	0.384	0.527	2.2	22.3%
2004	266	0.301	0.372	0.474	2.7	25.2%

Matt LaPorta, 1B, Florida, 6'0", 210

Year	ABs	Ave	OBP	SLG	K/BB	K%
2006	146	0.247	0.400	0.541	1.3	17.9%
2005	265	0.328	0.438	0.698	1.5	20.2%
2004	130	0.285	0.371	0.646	3.0	26.2%

Wes Hodges, 3B, Georgia Tech, 6'2", 185

Year	ABs	Ave	OBP	SLG	K/BB	K%
2006	182	0.346	0.433	0.593	1.5	18.8%
2005	267	0.397	0.466	0.566	1.3	11.6%
2004	184	0.304	0.387	0.467	1.3	11.9%

Matt Antonelli, 3B, Wake Forest, 6'0", 185

Year	ABs	Ave	OBP	SLG	K/BB	K%
2006	195	0.338	0.451	0.615	0.6	9.7%
2005	232	0.332	0.475	0.509	0.7	12.8%
2004	203	0.305	0.412	0.369	0.6	7.9%

Chad Tracy, C, Pepperdine, 6'3", 175

Year	ABs	Ave	OBP	SLG	K/BB	K%
2006	217	0.327	0.393	0.516	1.3	9.1%
2005	256	0.367	0.428	0.609	1.1	10.5%
2004	241	0.320	0.353	0.539	4.0	15.7%

The college hitting class is considered extremely weak. Longoria is considered the best hitter of the bunch, but is more of a 'solid guy' to quote BA.
Stubbs is a defensive whiz and I believe I read somewhere that he'd be gold glove caliber player right now. The question with him is hitting - those K rates are on the high side.

The power in the draft belongs to Matt LaPorta. He had an oblique strain earlier in the year, but is starting to play more now. As with Stubbs his K rate is too high for my liking (for what it's worth, Chip Cannon had a 16% K rate in his final college year and is at 30% in AA). He's also a Boras client.

Hodges and Antonelli are the next hitters and while Hodges is rated better I'm a bit intrigued by Antonelli ability to make contact. Sickels wrote that Hodges would generally be a 3rd round pick in a normal draft.

Chady Tracy is Jim Tracy's son. He's big for a catcher and it's possible that he'll be moved to a different position.


Draft outlook:

Given the weak nature of the draft it's still very unclear how things will play out and it wouldn't shock me to see a few players not listed here go in the top 15.

There doesn't appear to be more than 3 HS players selected prior to the Jays pick at #14. For position players it sounds like Longoria, Stubbs and LaPorta will be selected prior to the Jays picking, and barring players dropping for 'signability' the top 7-8 position players should also be off the board.

That leaves the Jays with a starting pitcher, perhaps one of Kennedy, Bard, LeBlanc, or Sinkbeil.

As the draft approaches I'll take a look at some players the Jays might be interested in when they start selecting again in round 4.

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