May Day Rambling

Monday, May 01 2006 @ 10:55 AM EDT

Here's my latest ramble on the state of the Blue Jays. Enjoy (or not, as suits you).

First off, the Jays deserve a lot of credit for surviving a very tough April schedule. The following chart shows the American League standings as I am writing this, followed by the number of games played against each opponent by the Yanks, Sox, and Jays.

		vs Yanks	vs Sox	vs Jays
Boston	14-11	0	x	6
New York	13-10	x	0	5
Toronto	12-11	5	6	x
Baltimore	13-13	3	3	3
Tampa Bay	11-14	3	6	3
Chicago	16-7	0	0	3
Detroit	16-9	0	0	0
Cleveland	13-11	0	3	0
Minnesota	9-15	3	0	3
Kansas City	5-17	3	0	0
LA Angels	12-12	3	0	0
Oakland	12-12	3	0	0
Texas	12-12	0	3	0
Seattle	11-15	0	4	0

As you can see, the Jays have played nearly half their games against their two main rivals, and have played 14 of their 23 games - over 60% - against teams that made it to the post-season last year. To have come out of that with a mark over .500, despite missing starts from their two best pitchers, is an impressive achievement. (By the way, the Jays' next game against the Yankees is a week after the All-Star break.) Now, we can all sit back and watch the Sox and Yanks pound each other into mulch. Yummy.

Lyle Overbay
He's playing good defense, and has a .370 on-base percentage. That's good enough for me. He was advertised as being a doubles monster, but has racked up precisely one (1) two-base hit this month. To the baseball gods, we are but sport.

Aaron Hill
He's obviously pressing a bit, but I've never seen anyone hit in such bad luck before. I haven't been keeping track of how many great plays have robbed him of base hits, but it seems like there's been a lot of them. You would think that some of them would start to drop in eventually, but then no one ever said that life was fair.

At second, he's been perfectly fine. He hasn't mastered the fine points of his position, but he makes up for that with excellent lateral range, especially to his right. He's a bit deliberate on the double-play pivot, but compensates for it with a strong arm.

Russ Adams
Same as last year: he does a little bit of everything, but not much of anything. He'll probably have to improve at something if the Jays are going to have a serious chance of contending.

John McDonald
He's fun to watch at short: he's so quick and fundamentally sound. He can't hit much, but we knew that already. It's good to have a Grade A glove on the bench for when you really need one.

Troy Glaus
Has the classic old-time power hitter stats: lots of extra-base hits, lots of walks, lots of strikeouts. It's a simple approach: wait for the pitch you like, then attempt to whale the tar out of it. Better defensively at third than advertised: he handles slow rollers well, and is good at stopping balls hit down the line.

Bengie Molina
Has been struggling a bit defensively: he's not throwing runners out, and he seems to be dropping balls a lot. Did you know that Molina only struck out three times this month? The slowest baseball player I have ever seen.

By the way: even if Molina turns out to be not as good as Zaun, his signing still isn't a waste of money. Most teams give 150 to 200 at-bats to a backup catcher who hits roughly as well as your Great-Aunt Dolly. The Jays don't have to do that.

Gregg Zaun
He watches. He waits. He plays hard whenever he gets the chance. And he watches. And he waits.

Reed Johnson
His stats are full of fascinating numbers. First off, he scored 17 runs while driving in only two; that's quite a ratio. He went the entire month without a single extra-base hit. And he had twice as many HBP (6) as strikeouts (3). And, best of all, his on-base percentage was .510. Five-ten! And he didn't even lead the team, as he finished behind...

Frank Catalanotto
...his platoon partner, who was at .550. Just think of it: Blue Jays left fielders reached base over half the time in April. Normally, nobody other than Barry Bonds does that. Cat also had nearly three times as many walks (12) as strikeouts (5), and whacked eight extra-base hits. Yowza.

Vernon Wells
It's ironic: once V-Dub realized that he didn't have to carry the entire offense on his shoulders, he started hitting well enough to do just that. There must be a Zen koan in there somewhere.

If he keeps this up, he won't see a fastball after the All-Star break. It'll be like what happened to Delgado: his walks will shoot up, and his power will drop. Then, he will need enough discipline to not swing at pitches off the plate.

Alex Rios
He's not completely out of the woods yet: he'll need to make adjustments once teams figure out that they can't get him out by trying to overmatch him with high heat. But let's not quibble: let's enjoy this ride while it lasts.

Two years ago, I wrote that Rios's upside was Dave Winfield, and Alex is looking a lot like Winfield out there right now. He's as much fun to watch in the field as at the plate: he has tremendous range and a world-class arm. And to think I practically gave up on him in the spring. I'm a really, really bad scout.

Eric Hinske
His baseball career has turned into The Glass Menagerie: he's spending more and more time enduring the baseball equivalent of sitting forlornly at home, holding a wilting corsage, and waiting for a gentleman caller.

His approach to the plate is the polar opposite of what it was last year. Then, he was trying to hit everything hard: his walks dropped, and his strikeouts went up. This year, he hasn't had an extra-base hit yet, but he's walking enough and hitting enough singles to bring his on-base percentage up over .400. This is perfectly okay: anything that isn't an out is a successful plate appearance, as the goal is to keep the line moving.

Shea Hillenbrand
See? He still hits well in April. (Unrelated aside: I don't recall a more benevolent April, weather-wise, in Toronto history. Usually, April breaks your heart. Global warming is real, people - we're going to have to get used to it.)

Roy Halladay
I am beginning to believe that Doc narrowly avoided disaster this spring. In his first two starts, his stuff was absolutely filthy - everything was darting this way and that. I think he was trying too hard: applying that much torque to every pitch must have been putting undue strain on his arm. Since his return, he's looked a bit rusty, and much more ordinary, but he's still been pitching well enough to help the team. He doesn't need to win the Cy - all he needs to do is give up fewer runs than the other guy. I think he's gonna do that.

A.J. Burnett
I totally sympathize with his situation. Burnett is experiencing arm pain he's never felt before, and is being paid millions of dollars to perform at his peak for the next five years. Is it any wonder that he is reluctant to go out there before all the tweaks are gone? Recall that pitching is an unnatural motion to begin with. I'd say walk a mile in his shoes, and let the man heal.

Having said that, I can understand why some people associated with the Jays are frustrated. Pain is a normal part of a pitcher's existence, and the Jays are currently experiencing a bad case of the pitching shorts. Even at 70 or 80%, Burnett would likely be able to help the team. I hope that A.J. doesn't get tagged with the "malingerer" label: that can be the kiss of death, as Kelly Gruber can tell you.

By the way: did you know that A.J. is actually older than Roy Halladay? Burnett was born in January, 1977, and Doc came into the world in May. They were both drafted in 1995. No wonder they've become best buds.

Ted Lilly
Watching Lilly pitch is like watching somebody attempt to cross Niagara Falls by unicycle over a tightrope while simultaneously juggling flaming knives and playing "I Wish I Could Shimmy Like My Sister Kate" on the kazoo. He's obviously got considerable ability, but he always seems this close to total disaster. Still, he's kept his ERA under 4, and he's kept the team in the game in most of his starts. If it's too painful to watch, change the channel.

Gustavo Chacin
He hasn't been pitching that well, but he's gotten a lot of run support, and he's maintained his composure throughout. I'm not worried about him. Much.

Josh Towers
One stat says it all: he's third on the team in walks allowed. All he had going for him was his pinpoint control: if he doesn't get that back, he's toast.

Casey Janssen
In his first start, he worked his way out of a couple of jams, and looked like a competitor out there. I don't know whether he will help the team, but it's a good sign when a rookie doesn't appear to be intimidated.

B.J. Ryan
Someday, he might actually allow a run. But, then again, he might not: he throws serious high heat, plus a slider that causes lefthanded hitters to have to clean themselves up afterwards. Note to the Rogers Centre scoreboard people: filling all available screen space with flames when he comes into the game is a wee bit tacky.

The Endless Rotating Cavalcade of Relief Pitchers [tm]
John Gibbons and the Blue Jays are taking advantage of a loophole in the rules. During the course of a year, if a player has an option remaining, a team can send out and recall that player as many times as he likes. The Jays are using this to, effectively, add one or two pitchers to their roster. When their existing bullpen arms got tired, they called up Marcum and McGowan. Once Marcum was used up, the Jays sent him down, and brought up Tallet to pitch bulk innings if needed. Once he's no longer needed, they'll probably send him back down and bring Frasor back up. If necessary, they can repeat the whole cycle again.

Eventually, major league baseball will put a stop to this, if only to cut down on the frequent flyer miles and give fans of AAA teams a chance to learn who-all is on their rosters. The best way to close this loophole is to expand the major league roster to 27 players, as the original 25-man roster was created back when teams only used 9 or 10 pitchers. But that'll never happen, as more major-league contracts means more leverage for players. Owners would rather cut off an appendage or two than allow that. (Besides, it would increase the number of mid-inning pitching changes, which is the single most boring part of any baseball game.)

Overall
The Jays aren't a complete team: their starting pitching has been very leaky at times, the middle infielders aren't quite there yet, and I'm convinced that the bats will die once the Rogers Centre roof is open. But they're good enough to compete with the big boys: heck, they are one of the big boys. Over the next few weeks, I'm convinced that the American League will discover that for themselves. The hard way. Play ball, gentlemen.

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