Yes, they're going to finish fourth again.
2005 brought the O's another fourth place, the seventh in the last eight years. You can at least rely on the Orioles, however, to keep mediocrity interesting. For the first third of the season they were really very good, sitting atop of the AL East and sporting a .600+ winning percentage. Even better it was two of the Orioles homegrown talents leading the way. Erik Bedard was looking like Roy Halladay and Brian Roberts like Barry Bonds. The Yankees were convincingly swept, and there was an 11 out of 13 streak starting at the end of April and going into May. This being Baltimore, of course, it couldn't last. Bedard got injured, Roberts slid back and began to hit like a merely excellent second baseman and the team's slide to an eventual 74-88 finish started.
The wheels really fell off as the season progressed culminating in a 3-13 finish to the season. Sammy Sosa was a sad shadow of his familiar self; Rafael Palmiero was decent on the field but a walking soap-opera off it as he failed a drugs test and implicated Miguel Tejada in the mess. Tejada responded by hitting just .276/.322/.416 with four homeruns in the second half. Bedard was accused of malingering during his injury recovery. Sidney Ponson drank his way off the club. The manager was sacked, and so on and so forth.
The off season was, like last season, largely a case of deja vu for Oriole's fans. There was a lot of talk of pursuing big name free agents, but very little in the way of action. Baltimore's front office had earned a reputation for being slow and difficult to deal with, to address this Peter Angelos' sacked Jim Beattie and hired ex-Mets GM Jim Duquette to work with Flanagan. This did nothing to address the problem of Angelos meddling in baseball decisions, which seems to be the main front office problem.
Miguel Tejada's winter of discontent dominated off season news. He demanded a trade, un-demanded it, hinted at this and that and generally made it clear he was unhappy with the Orioles characteristic lack of off season moves. He was linked with Boston in a trade for Manny Ramirez and to the Cubs for Mark Prior. Ultimately of course he has stayed, and will be watched all anxiously all year by O's fans for signs of discontent.
There were some signs of life and some decent moves from Flanagan, Ramon Hernandez comes in to take over for the aging Javy Lopez, LaTroy Hawkins should be a useful addition to a shaky looking relief corps and Kris Benson is a sensible choice to hold down a rotation spot until Adam Loewen or Hayden Penn are ready to step in and just last week they were offering Rodrigo Lopez for Willy Mo Pena. Bringing in Kevin Millar and Jeff Conine is puzzling though, one of them would have been than adequate to hold down a spot for a year until Nick Makarkis is ready, bringing them both in just clogs things up.
The biggest news of the winter of course was the signing of Leo Mazzone to join his childhood friend Sam Perlozzo as pitching coach. Mazzone needs no introduction, his feats with the Braves having reached legendary status. Possibly the most interesting thing about the Orioles over the next couple of years might be seeing if the Mazzone effect will work outside Atlanta.
One thing the management did this winter that might come back to haunt them is make silly promises to veterans, Jeff Conine was promised regular playing time and Javy Lopez, chaffing at losing the catching job, was promised the first base job as he dislikes being the DH.
Catchers
Ramon Hernandez, Geronimo Gil
Hernandez has put up some nice numbers over his prime years, his OPS+ for the last three years have been 112, 116 and 109. He’s 30 this year so he should have a few good years left in him and he’s the sort of right handed hitter with some pop who might enjoy a power bump from hitting at OPACY.
Infield
Javy Lopez, Brian Roberts, Miguel Tejada, Melvin Mora, Chris Gomez.
The infield has been the clubs one strength over the last few years. Javy Lopez steps in to the first base job, and reports from Spring Training on his acclimatisation have not been positive. He's not quite Mike Piazza bad by all accounts, but he's not far off. Perlozzo may have a tricky job of ego management to do here if he has to move Javy to DH and Conine or Millar to first. Javy can, of course, still rake. Without the catching duties wearing him down he could very easily be good for a .290/.350/.475 year. Over at third Melvin Mora (who thinks he’s worth $10 million a year) is also easing into his decline years, his 150 OPS+ days are probably behind him for good, but a .280/.350/.450 line would do the Orioles just fine and keep him an above average performer at his position. The double play combination is more intriguing. Brain Roberts had a breakout year in 2005 ended by a terrible elbow injury. Happily, he seems to have recovered fully, if slowly, and has impressed in his limited Spring Training appearances to date. Roberts monthly breakdown last year is a strange one, for four months he was one of the leagues best hitters, and for two months one of the worst:
Month AB BA OBP SLG Apr 95 .379 .459 .726 May 109 .358 .440 .569 Jun 73 .356 .407 .534 Jul 106 .226 .308 .396 Aug 110 .264 .333 .382 Sept 68 .324 .390 .515He ended up with a .902 OPS last year, it's a stretch to expect him to repeat that, but there's no reason to think he won't be one of the best couple of second basemen in the league again. It was a tale of two seasons for Miguel Tejada as well, up until the end of July he was looking like an MVP candidate, after that he was just awful, posting a .725 OPS in August and .685 in September. He was striking out a lot more, grounding out constantly and his power numbers disappeared as he hit just thirteen doubles and four homers in the last two months. Hopefully it was just the silly fuss with Palmiero that was bothering him and he'll be back to something like his best this year, baseball needs Miggy.
Outfield
Jay Gibbons, Luis Matos, Corey Patterson, Kevin Millar, Jeff Conine, Nick Markakis, David Newhan
Ugh, the outfield is as bad as the infield is good. With the season starting in just over a week, the Orioles have no idea who is going to be the everyday Centre fielder or Left fielder. With Jay Gibbons penciled in for the job in right, there are five mediocre players and one great prospect left in the outfield/DH mix and only four jobs to fill.
The best solution to me clearly would be to release Kevin Millar, then he might sign somewhere outside the AL East and we wouldn't have to see him 19 times a year. Better yet he might Cowboy off and retire. Normally you'd expect the established veterans to win out in this situation and for Newhan and Markakis to be sent to AAA, they are however the two who have been tearing it up in Spring Training. Markakis is an unquestioned part of the O's future and so the decisions should start with what is best for his development. For all his great Minor League numbers and the great impression he has made on scouts and trainers this Spring, the fact remains he has had just 124 at-bats above A-Ball. I would send him to AAA to start the year, it's not as if his presence is going to suddenly make Baltimore a contender. The Orioles have rushed too many players through the minors recently, this is a mistake they shouldn't make with Markakis, let him get a couple of hundred at-bats with Ottawa and bring him up later in the year. He'll be better prepared and if the O's are lucky he'll avoid being a super-two down the line.
If Millar and Conine are to remain as seems likely, the sensible thing would be too keep Newhan and Matos with the big team and send Patterson down. The ex-cub was horrible last year and has had a bad spring, in short he has done nothing to make the front office keep him around. Newhan is hitting well and can field almost anywhere, Matos is a better player right now than Patterson and a known quantity. Matos though is in the organisation's dog-house and could be traded. This situation could play out a number of ways. Two things are pretty certain though, there will be too many days when Kevin Millar and Jeff Conine are both in the lineup, and the Orioles are likely to again have one of the worst outfields in the majors.
Mike Flanagan believes his outfield logjam is a good problem to have, presumably he was being ironical.
Rotation
Rodrigo Lopez, Kris Benson, Eric Bedard, Daniel Cabrera, Bruce Chen.
It all comes down to the Mazzone effect. As Rob Neyer has pointed out, Daniel Cabrera is the best talent Mazzone has had to work with since John Smoltz, and Eric Bedard isn't far behind. While Rodrigo Lopez and Kris Benson are exactly the type of mid-level journeymen Mazzone has made his considerable reputation turning around. Bruce Chen, of course, has had one go around with Mazzone already, but he claims to be more mature and better able to take the sage old Coach’s advice on board these days. Cabrera is easily the most interesting pitcher on the Orioles, he was one of only three starters last year who struck out more than 7.5 per 9 innings and had a groundball rate over 50%, the other two were Chris Carpenter and AJ Burnett. Jays fans will only need to cast their minds back to this game to be reminded of his awesome stuff. Still in his two years in the majors his ERA+ figures have been 96 and 92. His problem is the walk, he was walked 176 in 309 Innings in his big league career, and if he can get the free passes under control he could be one of the best in the game. He’s 25 now, if he’s going to make the leap this could be the year. Erik Bedard also has ace-like potential, in two months last year he gave a tantalizing glimpse of what he could be. In 9 starts he went 5-1 with a 2.08 ERA and a 52/14 K/BB ratio. Then he hurt his knee and then, being an Oriole, he had an awful end to the year – ERA’s of 5.86 and 6.28 in August and September. I’m an optimistic type and I’m expecting him to be more like he was early last year in 2006. Bedard isn’t liked much in Baltimore, even though he’s a good Canadian kid. He has developed a reputation for being surly and difficult to coach, and he upset someone so much during his injury recovery last year that the front office spent most of the winter trying to trade him. Kris Benson pitched through an injury last year which hurt his results he is reportedly back at full fitness this year. You would think moving from a neutral park to a pitchers park would help him, but Camden is a hitters park when it comes to home-runs and Benson has always had problems with the long ball. I’ve officially given up predicting breakout years for Rodrigo Lopez, instead I’m just expecting him to be a run of the mill starter whose main skill is eating innings, it’s far more likely.
This really isn’t a bad rotation, Bedard and Cabrera have legitimate ace potential and Benson, Chen and Lopez should all be able to go close to 200 Innings and keep their ERA’s around 4 or better.
Bullpen
Chris Ray, LaTroy Hawkins, Todd Williams, Eric DuBose, Tim Brydak, Jim Brower, Sendy Rleal, John Halama.
Chris Ray will make the quick ascension to the closers role. Ray was brilliant last year in AA and the Majors, although he was 0-4 in save opportunities. LaTroy Hawkins will do the setup duties from the right-hand side and Tim Brydak from the left. Todd Williams will start the year on the DL which should open a role for Rleal who has been dominating in Spring Training. Eric DuBose and John Halama should make it as the long men, while Jim Brower was apparently recommended by Mazzone which should ensure him a job.
This really isn’t a particularly strong bullpen, the backend with Ray and Hawkins should be fine, but, there’s not much talent to be throwing at the opposition in those critical middle innings when the starters falter. If Ray doesn’t adjust to the closer role and everyone else has to move up a spot, this could get ugly.
There is a rumour, by the by, that the Orioles are considering starting the year with one of those six man bullpens that I’ve read about in history books.
Fearful Prediction
It really is about time this club had it’s first 80 win season of the millennium and this should be the year. If Mazzone really can turn Cabrera into John Smoltz or Bedard into something like Tom Glavine they could easily have a winning season. They’ll still be fourth in the Division of course.
https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20060327132530929