If you missed the earlier Cincinnati Reds preview a while back, in it we used the greatness of Baseball-Reference.com and their "most comparable players" list for each individual projected at the time (so long, Wily Mo) to be headed for the MLB roster in 2006.
We'll do the same thing here, with a few minor revisions, for the Jays' vaunted neighbor in Gotham, the 26-time World Champion New York Yankees, to see what we can learn about pinstriped prospects in the forthcoming campaign.
But first, a quick look back at how we did in projecting the last two seasons for the New Yorkers ...
In 2004's It's Deja Vu All Over Again, we projected a Yankees/Cubs World Series for the ages; in an upset of literally historical proportions, the Cardinals (much to Cub fan chagrin) and the Red Sox (speaking of historical proportions) had something to say about that.
Then in 2005's Stacking Up to History, this space forecast a Yankees/Reds Fall Classic; while we have taken the paddle to ourselves in the above-linked Reds '06 preview for the massive miscalculation on the NL side, it was, in another historic fallout, those Sox of a different (actually lack of) color who represented the A.L. and took home the rings.
In fact. after the remarkable run of four rings in Joe Torre's first five years as the NYY skipper, the Bronx Bombers haven't won a Series since 2000 and haven't even participated in a Fall Classic over the past four seasons, an interminable wait in Steinbrenner Time. Of course, only the 26-time champion Yankees could truly be "frustrated" by a four-year run that included 400 regular season wins and four division titles.
But such is life as a New York baseball fan.
So what's up for 2006? Well, as we did with that Reds forecast, let's play a little Match Game 2006, with the help of Sean Forman's indispensible Baseball-Reference.com (BBRef) Web site. Let's find out what we know about the 2006 Yankees by comparing each member of the projected roster to that player's historically most similar "comp" -- and here's the one change. We will take the comp who played the same position, at least sometimes, or else (in one instance) we'd end up with Ken Griffey Jr. playing third base. Instead, we'll "settle" for the #7 guy on Alex Rodriguz's list, Hall of Fame hot corner guy Eddie Mathews.
What you'll notice on the NYY roster is certainly the star power backed by almost no depth whatsover; for instance, while the comps to the nine men in the starting lineup include four current Hall of Famers (Fisk, Lazzerri, Mathews, Jackson) and three more who at least arguably should be (Trammell, Raines, Parker), the "comp" bench has one name you'll recognize, one you probably won't, and four positions vacant as the Yankees will go with players who haven't even earned a BBRef comp list as yet.
Similarly, the "Comp" rotation starts with two Hall of Fame talents who should scare any opposing manager in a short series, then follows quickly with two head-scratchers and a fifth so effective as a starter he's now in the White Sox bullpen.
As for the 2006 Yankee bullpen -- wow. Maybe the weak links in the rotation won't be such a bad thing; however, it's important to note that while there are eight legitimate candidates listed, the Yanks will probably only carry six of them, so unless (or until?) Wright or Pavano is hurt, given the lack of lefties in the rotation (with one tall exception), it's probably a ticket to Columbus or a trip on the waiver wire either for Tanyon Sturtze or 2005 top surprise, Aaron "10-0" Small.
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2006 NYY LINEUP C Jorge Posada 1B Jason Giambi 2B Robinson Cano SS Derek Jeter 3B Alex Rodriguez LF Hideki Matsui CF Johnny Damon RF Gary Sheffield DH Bernie Williams |
BBREF COMPARABLES C Carlton Fisk 1B Mo Vaughn 2B Tony Lazzeri SS Alan Trammell 3B Eddie Mathews LF Kevin Millar CF Tim Raines RF Reggie Jackson DH Dave Parker |
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2006 NYY BENCH C Kelly Stinnett IF Miguel Cairo COR Andy Phillips OF Bubba Crosby IF Felix Escalona OF Melky Cabrera |
BBREF COMPARABLES C Carl Sawatski IF Jim Gantner COR None OF None IF None OF None |
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2006 NYY ROTATION LHP Randy Johnson RHP Mike Mussina RHP Shawn Chacon RHP Chien-Ming Wang RHP Carl Pavano |
BBREF COMPARABLES SP Roger Clemens SP Juan Marichal SP Bob Harris SP Andy Replogle SP Dustin Hermanson |
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2006 NYY BULLPEN CL Mariano Rivera RH-SET Kyle Farnsworth LH-SET Mike Myers RH-SET Octavio Dotel LHP Ron Villone RHP Tanyon Sturtze LONG-R Aaron Small LONG-R Jaret Wright |
BBREF COMPARABLES CL Trevor Hoffman RH-SET Bob Scanlan SET Buddy Groom SET Stan Belinda P Rheal Cormier P Karl Drews LONG Jose Cabrera LONG Scott Elarton |
Keeep in mind, when we asked the Reds preview question, "So What Does This Teach Us?," the answer was "Honestly, not much. But it's fun to think about."
What isn't so fun for Yankee fans to think about is the following crucial series of numbers for their 2006 roster:
34-35-24-32-30-32-32-37-37-42-37-36
What's that, some sort of lottery string? For the Yankees, the answer is "yes," it's the numbers they're playing in 2006 Season Age Lottery for their nine regulars, top two starters and closer. So the question of the year is, can they stay healthy?
If the answer is "yes," then this team with nine possible future Hall of Famers wins 100+ games again and wins a ninth straight division crown. After that, youneverknow in a short series of short serieses, though as mentioned with Moose and Unit around, the Yankees have to like their chances.
Now, if the Yanks DON'T stay healthy -- and one of these years, the Great Pinstriped Breakdown is bound to happen -- then this team's lack of depth could spell -- gasp! -- third place.
Oh what the hell, let's split the difference. In 2006, the Yankees don't win their ninth straight AL East title, but ... Ladies and Gentlemen of Batter's Box Interactive Magazine, meet your New York Yankees ... the 2006 American league Wild Card "winners."
The door's open, Carlos. Can your team fly through?
https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20060325185041933