There are many different ways to rank the strength of the thirty minor league farm systems. Some pundits look at depth, others at how close the players are to the major leagues. Baseball America's Jim Callis looks at star potential and he doesn't see much of it in the Blue Jay system. As a result Baseball America has ranked the Jays as the 25th best, or if you prefer the 6th worst, minor league system in baseball.
If you are looking for potential stars among the Jays prospects Callis acknowledges Dustin McGowan does have star potential, although he did not explode onto the major league scene this year. Baseball America's number three Blue Jay prospect, David Purcey, also has star potential but has a huge question mark over his control. As Callis notes this same issue has plagued Purcey for several years now and the fact that he has not cured it yet reduces his future projection. In Callis's opinion that's it for the potential stars among Blue Jay prospects. Callis believes Ricky Romero, the Jays number two prospect, is a major league number three starter. BA describes a star pitcher, in the front of their prospect book, as a player who has two top quality pitches in his repertoire. With an average fastball, Romero would have to have two off speed pitches be his plus pitches and, according to Callis, he is not there yet.
The 25th ranking for the Jays is the lowest in recent memory and a far cry from the sixth best ranking in 2004. But the 2004 list shows the perils of prospect evaluation. The top six in 2004 were Alexis Rios, Dustin McGowan, Guillermo Quiroz, David Bush, Francisco Rosario and Aaron Hill. Two years later that group has not delivered as you would expect the sixth best minor league system to. To date, although there is still an opportunity for these players to develop, the number of stars in that group is zero. Another example of unpredictability is the New York Yankees, whose farm system was ranked 24th best in last year's prospect book, but Chien-Ming Wang and Robinson Cano gave them great production in 2005. Prospect evaluation is inherently an unpredictable profession, there are hundreds of top prospects who have failed to perform in the major leagues. We need only look back to 2002 when Josh Phelps was the number one Blue Jay prospect, another under performer is Kevin Cash who was the Jays number three prospect in 2003. Chad Hermansen, who played in the Jays system in 2004, was, at one time, the top ranked prospect in all of baseball. Callis acknowledges the uncertainty. "I have become much more cynical about these lists over the past several years. When I first started doing them I would be excited all through the top 100, but now when I get to number thirty I recognize that everyone after that has questions hanging over them." Callis also notes one other thing about this years crop. "I notice that there are not that many premium pitching prospects, there are maybe four, everyone else has been injured or has some doubts attached to them."
So should fans care if the Jays are ranked at number 25? Well, yes, it would be much nicer to be back at number six as the Jays were in 2004, but ultimately these ratings are an educated guess about the future. In the end what matters is how players develop after they reach the major leagues. The Jays want to find another Michael Young who continued to get better and better after he reached the major leagues. Finding another Orlando Hudson would be nice too, a low round draft choice who becomes an everyday major leaguer. One of the biggest issues impacting the Jays in 2006 will be the continued development of youngsters like Alex Rios, Aaron Hill and Russ Adams. If they each continue to develop the Jays organization, the scouts and the development system will take credit. But if they fail they will all take the blame. Success at the major league level often ventures past the tools and natural skills into the ability to make adjustments and mental strength. There are numerous examples of hitters who slug their way through the minor leagues but cannot adapt to major league pitching. Were pitchers like Josh Towers and Doug Davis ever projected as solid major league pitchers? It is never good to be ranked the sixth worst farm system but in the end it's an opinion, and an opinion that has only a loose relationship with the future.
There are several reasons for the Blue Jay's low ranking. The first is the Jay's drafting philosophy. The Jays have used their first round pick in the JP era to take the safe pick. Aaron Hill, Russ Adams, David Purcey and Ricky Romero, the Jays last four first round selections, have never been ranked as a team number one prospect by Baseball America, nor have they been highly ranked in BA's top 100 prospects. They were each selected in part for their low risk and their expected speed to the major leagues. Callis is critical of the Jays 2005 selection, he believes the Jays should have selected Troy Tulowitski. "When you have the number six pick you have to pick a guy who can be a star." Callis acknowledges that the Jays had selected Hill and Adams in 2002 and 2003 and perhaps they were reluctant to select another shortstop.
The second factor for the Jays low ranking is luck, none of the Jays recent selections have yet blossomed into a star. When a 20th round pick becomes a good major leaguer it is tough for anyone to take too much credit. The team who picked him passed over him nineteen times, all other teams passed him twenty times. Success in the draft past the tenth round, or some argue as low as the fifth, has to be viewed with some element of luck. Stars don't just come from the first round, stars can come from any round and the Jays have not had a lower pick bloom into a star for some time. Six of the Jays top ten prospects were drafted in the first or second rounds, only Vince Perkins was drafted after the fourth round. This might also link back to the safe selection methodology. The future development of high school players is much more unpredictable as they have three or four more years of growth compared to college players. The Jays focus on 22 and 23 year olds in the draft reduces the chance of a later round pick surprising with their development.
Finally the Jays have promoted or traded five of last years top eleven prospects. Aaron Hill, Russ Adams and Gustavo Chacin were promoted while Zach Jackson and Gabe Gross were traded. Few systems can survive unscathed in those circumstances.
On the positive side the Jays top ten prospects are heavily loaded to the top end of their system. Eight of the top ten played at AA or AAA in 2005, and the other two, Adam Lind and Ricky Romero, will be in AA in 2006. In a dream season for the Blue Jays farm system all ten could play for the parent club this year, but all have questions. Callis likes Adam Lind, the Jays number four prospect, but wonders if he will hit with enough power for a DH or first baseman. Callis is not convinced Lind can play the outfield and he currently profiles more like a Lyle Overbay kind of first baseman, one that hits more doubles than homers. Callis sees Josh Banks and Casey Janssen as a lighter version of Ricky Romero, average all round, and he is uncertain how they will fare with major league hitters. Callis likes Curtis Thigpen and acknowledges a lot of improvement in 2005, but he still wonders if Thigpen will be an everyday catcher in the majors or if he will end as a super sub. Callis is not a big fan of Brandon League, he notes that League has never been able to consistently fool hitters.
Having the 25th ranked system in baseball cannot be viewed as a positive in any way. Because of the lack of a strong correlation between the rankings and ultimate success the 25th ranking is not as big a negative as it seems. 2006 will be a make or break season for most of the Jays top ten, can they continue to advance and thrive, or will they flame out? With the large commitment of payroll to new players in the off-season, the Jays are counting on the farm system to deliver three or four everyday players for 2007.
Other Player Comments
Sergio Santos would have been in the top ten had the trade with Arizona been made earlier. I asked Callis if he buys the "started slow and never got untracked" story about Santos' hitting in the 2005 season. "No I don't, Santos was young for the PCL and his defense improved but I don't fully buy the slow start then pressed. When I did the PCL top 20 review most managers felt there was something wrong with his approach at the plate. They questioned his plate discipline and felt he did not make adjustments. Remember too that the Arizona A, AA and AAA teams play in good hitters parks."
"Eric Fowler made the list in the bottom half but he profiles as another average lefty, similar to many of the other Jays pitching prospects, Fowler's fastball is average although he has a developing slider."
"Rob Cosby is in the middle of the rankings, he is a good defender, has a good bat and could be a good major league third baseman."
Dustin Majewski came to the Jays in the trade. "Majewski is another good physical specimen, but he was old for his league last year and didn't make the top 30."
"Chi-Hung Cheng is in the middle of the rankings, he has a good breaking ball but he is still too wild with it and his fastball is fringy."
The Jays had more players from their Dominican and Venezuelan farm teams in North America in 2005. Some looked promising but none made the top 30. "You usually have to wait until the Latin players turn 20 to figure out what you have," says Callis. Callis was not aware of the players the Jays recently signed in Latin America but notes he does not think the Jays are outbidding the wealthier teams for Latin talent.
I asked Callis about Box favourite Davis Romero who has excellent strikeout numbers but the Jays did not put him on their 40 man roster this off season and Romero was passed over in the rule 5 draft. "This is a good case of where the stats might not tell the full story," says Callis, "Romero has not pitched above A ball and in A ball, if you can control your breaking ball, you can get strikeouts with players chasing it out of the zone. Hitters are more disciplined at AA. Romero has fringy stuff, but the bigger issue is that he is inconsistent, plus his size and stamina probably mean he is headed for the bullpen.
I asked Callis if he believed either of the Jays players lost in the rule 5 draft (Steve Andrade to San Diego, or Jamie Vermilyea to Boston) would stick with their respective teams? "I don't think Vermilyea will stick, the Red Sox have a lot of young guys who would fit in the pen and in addition they signed Julian Tavarez, Guillermo Mota and Rudy Seanez. I haven't checked the competition in the San Diego pen but Andrade has a better chance, he always looked like a guy who slipped through the cracks."
The Baseball America prospect book is due back from the publisher this week, a few weeks earlier than last year. It could have been earlier still but Jim lost a week with a bad back. Jim hopes to get the book out earlier again next year. in substance the book is the same as previous years except that this year there are 902 prospects in the book, two more than the normal 900. Baseball America added Mike Pelfrey and Justin Upton after they signed pro contracts. As always the Baseball America Prospect Book is the gold standard for prospect analysis. You really should buy a copy.
Batters Box would like to thank Jim Callis for sharing his comments and opinions with us. Finally, if you want a retrospective, Jim also joined us last year.
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