Everyone seems to think it's a done deal but the specifics are lacking. Troy Glaus appears to be headed for the great white north while Orlando Hudson and Miguel Batista are headed south. There could be a prospect headed to Toronto; the cash side of the deal is unknown; and whether Glaus had to have his deal sweetened is also unknown.
So while we are waiting for the details let's consider some aspects of the deal.
First, big props to JP. He wanted to add pitching and a couple of bats this off-season and he has done it. The team might over or under achieve but now it is definitely JP's team.
Although Boston were rumoured to be in the running they might not have been serious contenders. They have holes to fill at shortstop and centre field and Glaus doesn't fill those.
From a team perspective the trade breaks down as Aaron Hill replacing Hudson; and Troy Glaus replacing Hillenbrand, or Hinske.
Hill and Hudson are forecast to be similar offensively. The Bill James Annual 2006 forecasts Hill to have a higher OBP and Hudson to have a higher SLG. Glaus is forecast to be about 15 runs, or a game and a half, better than Hillenbrand. The defensive aspect is somewhat unknown, Glaus and Hillenbrand are probably a wash while Hudson should be better than Hill although Hill has limited experience at second base.
This trade raises two questions: who is your shortstop next year, Adams or Hill? And who would you trade Hillenbrand or Hinske?
I have ignored Batista and the supposed prospect in this analysis, Batista was a spare part for the Jays while the prospects value is unknown.
With this trade JP has increased his risk. Glaus played most of 2005 but he missed time in 2003 and 2004 with injury. I know from some insider discussions that JP looked seriously at acquiring Glaus last winter. JP has liked Glaus for some time.
I have not discussed budget as we don't know if Arizona are eating any of the contract.
Let's play roster de-construction. Start with 25 players and subtract 12 pitchers, 2 catchers and 4 outfielders. That leaves 7 infielders. Hill, Adams and McDonald leave 4 roster spots for 1B, 3B and DH. Overbay will play first. Koskie and Glaus will split 3B and DH. Who is your backup? Hillenbrand might be the better player but he probably wouldn't be happy being a backup. So look at it this way, Hinske will be 2006's Menechino.
To summarize, compared to 2005 the Jays have:
Upgraded at first base
Declined defensively at second base
Improved at DH
Improved at #2 starter
Improved at closer
The Jays hope Koskie, Zaun and Wells will have a better 2006 than 2005 and that Halladay will not get injured. Finally Ted Lilly will be in his free agent year, statistically a better year for players.
So are you optimistic or pessimistic?
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