I wanted to provide some supplementary information to Rob's piece yesterday on AL closers... ah, hell. I just wanted to make a Data Table. Get your Analytical Fix right here!
This doesn't include last night's games: Dustin Hermanson, Mariano Rivera, and Francisco Rodriguez each blew a save opportunity. Miguel Batista and B.J. Ryan both delivered the goods required by the Job Description.
Rob left Keith Foulke out of his study - I've included him because it gives us all the AL closers with at least 15 saves. And a chance to see what a really awful performance looks like.
So: two quick Data Tables. This is how the 13 AL closers have performed during their save opportunities. The second column, ZERO - that's the number of appearances that were scoreless. It's just something I was curious about. I have this vague and unreliable memory of someone, but I forget who, allowing something like 6 runs in a third of an inning in his first game of the year. Because of the small number of innings pitched by closers, it meant that his ERA basically sucked until August, even though he held the other guys off the board in almost all of his subsequent outings.
Note - neither Dustin Hermanson nor Huston Street began the year as their team's closer. Hermanson assumed the job in May, Street not until July. In save opportunities prior to that (when they were set-up guys), Street had 1 Blown Save. Hermanson had 5 holds (those are the only holds recorded by any of these pitchers. Street's Blown Save as a setup guy is included in the first chart, but Hermanson's Holds are in the second.
SAVE SITUATIONS G ZERO IPT H R ER HR BB SO PIT BF W L S BS ERA Hermanson 31 28 37.0 18 4 3 1 7 15 416 108 0 1 30 1 0.73 Guardado 30 26 30.0 17 7 3 3 5 24 432 111 0 0 28 2 0.90 Nathan 33 29 33.7 13 5 4 2 7 39 499 120 0 0 30 3 1.07 Rivera 35 31 39.3 26 9 5 1 6 38 551 142 1 1 32 3 1.14 Street 19 15 27.0 18 5 4 2 3 20 343 87 1 0 15 4 1.33 MacDougal 17 13 18.3 13 4 4 1 8 18 269 70 0 0 15 2 1.96 Batista 25 20 31.0 25 9 7 0 6 19 428 119 1 2 21 4 2.03 Cordero 32 24 36.0 28 12 10 3 15 35 544 139 1 0 26 6 2.50 Rodriguez 31 24 34.7 18 10 10 4 13 47 523 129 0 2 28 3 2.60 Ryan 31 26 34.3 24 12 11 2 12 51 570 129 0 3 26 5 2.88 Wickman 37 30 37.0 38 12 12 6 13 19 560 155 0 2 32 5 2.92 Baez 32 22 41.3 40 16 14 4 15 28 669 165 2 3 25 7 3.05 Foulke 19 10 20.7 34 24 24 7 7 13 385 101 1 3 15 4 10.45Now you know what Boston fans have been howling about this year.
Anyway, as you can see, four guys - Hermanson, Guardado, Nathan, and Rivera - have been lights-out in these situations. Street, too, it's fair to say. MacDougal and Batista have done a fine job in fewer opportunities. B.J. Ryan has had a few rough outings - the 12 runs he allowed came in just 5 games - but he's been fine overall.
Here's something you can do with these numbers. If you look at the Save column and then look at the Zero column, you can quickly see how many times a pitcher has allowed a run and still recorded a save. Obviously, it's the number of saves greater than the number of zeroes.
So yes - the save Batista recorded on Sunday, when he allowed 2 runs, was the first time this year that he had allowed a run but still been credited with a save. This, to my mind, is an Extra-Cheap Save (a new statistical category, patent pending). Keith Foulke has 5 Extra-Cheapies and Francisco Rodriguez has 4. At the other end, B.J. Ryan and Huston Street don't have any, while Joe Nathan, Mariano Rivera and Batista have just 1 apiece.
You can quickly see which closers have Vultured Wins. Any time a guy comes in to save a game and ends up winning it means he Blew the Save, but his team rallied and got him the victory. So Baez has 2 Vultures, Rivera, Street, Batista, Cordero, and Foulke 1 apiece (and Street was closing when he Blew the Save and Vultured the Win.)
The next table shows us how these pitchers have pitched in Non-Save Situations. The game was tied, or they needed the work, or it was the 14th inning and the manager was running out of arms. Whatever:
NON-SAVE SIT. G ZERO IPT H R ER HR BB SO PIT BF W L S BS ERA Street 29 25 37.0 18 6 5 0 15 35 505 132 3 1 0 0 1.22 Foulke 18 15 20.3 12 3 3 1 8 16 306 77 4 2 0 0 1.33 Rivera 15 12 19.0 7 5 3 0 5 23 263 71 4 2 0 0 1.42 Baez 14 11 17.3 9 5 3 1 7 12 227 63 3 0 0 0 1.56 Rodriguez 12 10 13.3 8 3 3 0 9 17 212 57 2 0 0 0 2.03 Ryan 21 17 22.0 18 5 5 2 5 29 402 89 1 0 0 0 2.05 Guardado 11 8 11.0 11 3 3 0 4 11 195 49 1 0 0 0 2.45 Hermanson 14 9 17.0 18 9 5 2 9 12 276 77 0 2 0 0 2.65 Wickman 11 7 11.7 9 4 4 2 3 6 169 44 0 2 0 0 3.09 Batista 26 15 32.0 34 16 13 5 10 18 459 127 4 1 0 0 3.66 Cordero 19 15 19.3 16 9 9 1 8 26 359 84 1 1 0 0 4.19 MacDougal 34 22 41.0 40 24 20 4 13 38 607 155 2 4 0 0 4.39 Nathan 17 12 18.0 21 11 11 1 12 24 346 83 5 3 0 0 5.50You will notice that Batista is one of just three closers who has appeared more often in a non-save situation than a save situation. The other two are Huston Street, who didn't start closing games until June, and Mike MacDougal, whose team never has a lead to protect (although Baez of Tampa Bay has made more than two-thirds of his appearances in save situations.) Batista, Street, and MacDougal have worked far more in these situations than the other ten pitchers, generally twice as much.
Tuesday night's appearance, not included here, now means that Batista has exactly the same number of inings and appearances in Save and Non-Save situations. Batista went four full weeks - May 3 to May 31 - without a save opportunity. It's just the way things worked out, but it's odd.
The two men who have been outstanding in both situations are Mariano Rivera and Huston Street. Rivera we all know about, and it was pitching as well as this that landed Street the job of closing games two months into the season.
It's noteworthy just how seldom Guardado, Rodriguez, and Wickman have worked in this situation - especially since Rodriguez has actually been better when it wasn't a save opportunity.
The truly startling performances here are by Keith Foulke, who has actually pitched very well in these games; and Joe Nathan, who pitches as if he doesn't seem to care if there's no save to be had. In Nathan's case, he looks like he got pounded a few times. Batista and MacDougal have been pretty ordinary. Chad Cordero appears to have had a couple of fairly rough outings, which has hurt his ERA, but most of the time he's pitched well.
https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20050817032256777