Advance Scout: Orioles, August 12-14

Friday, August 12 2005 @ 05:53 PM EDT

It's do-or-die time for the ornithologically inclined AL East rivals this weekend. Thanks largely to a visit from Tampa Bay, the Orioles have slowed their spiral into oblivion -- at least momentarily.

The O's have been suffering from some awful outings from their starting rotation and some prolonged slumps from their batting order. That's the good news for the Jays. The bad news is, this remains a club that can score runs in bunches -- and a club frankly due for some breaks. Read on for details.

This week's Scout features a season debut on Saturday, a left-on-base bonanza and a GM team that may shrink in size -- from two to zero -- unless the club continues to rebound. Oh yeah, and some guy named Palmeiro should be playing first tonight.

* General: Remember the Orioles? Back in late June, the first-place Marylanders were in town to take on the Jays, and they split the first two of a four-game set. But the Jays took the final two games and the series, triggering a hitherto unimaginable 9-28 slide that sent the Birds plummeting out of contention -- and culminating with the firing of Lee Mazzilli. Since then, though, the O's have gone 5-2 under new manager Sam Perlozzo, including a three-game home sweep of Tampa Bay. That was their first series win of the second half ... The chief culprit for the Orioles' decline has been the starting rotation. Over the club's last 17 games, the O's' starters have been tagged with a 7.08 ERA, and have only worked into the sixth inning on seven occasions ... Silly as it seems, it's been the absence of clutch hitting that's been killing the Orioles offensively. Consider this: Since the All-Star Break, the Orioles are tied with the Twins for fewest runs scored in the AL, with 106. But their team OPS is 83 points higher than that of the Twins since the break ... After hitting .278 with men in scoring position since the break, the O's have hit just .213 with RISP since then ... The club's defence has declined lately, too ... Palmeiro's return means the ol' DFA for Midre Cummings ... B.J. Surhoff was placed on the 15-day DL with a strained left groin ... 22-year-old Aberdeen righty Radhames Liz has an unorthodox follow-through that observers have likened to that of Bob Gibson. He's leading the NY-Penn League in ERA and strikeouts ... The Birds have split their 10 games with the Jays thus far ... This is the first time in the history of the franchise that the Orioles have been as many as 14 games above .500, only to fall below the break-even mark later in the season ... Steve Kline's latest gripe is that the bullpen could be overtaxed now that veteran long man James Baldwin is no longer available to chew up innings. Texas scooped up Baldwin off waivers ... If the O's finish below .500 for a third consecutive season, Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun has speculated that co-GMs Mike Flanagan and Jim Beattie will get the gate. Although Miguel Tejada has been superb and the O's have made shrewd waiver claims under "Beatagan," the ex-pitchers have been less shrewd with spending their free-agent pitching dollars (Ponson, Daal, Kline). The GMs have also drawn fire for their inability to sign Vlad Guerrero and Carlos Delgado after both players' agents expressed interest ...

* Daniel Cabrera: Very upright on the mound, with a delivery reminiscent of Juan Guzman but for a twist during his leg kick ... Very prone to the longball when he leaves his mid-80s slider up, since it doesn't move much when up in the zone. It's a pitch worth sitting on ... Gets good downward trajectory on his fastball, as he comes from straight over the top ... Somewhat flat four-seam fastball, but it's still effective considering he reaches the upper 90s with it ...

* Eric Byrnes: The ex-Beaner was acquired from the Rockies for Larry Bigbie ... Hit safely in his first eleven games as an Oriole before taking an 0-for-4 last night ... Bad-ball hitter who will lunge to make contact when he's up there to swing aggressively ... Can be tied up in on his fists with fastballs ... Chases up and away more often than down and away ... Has not put up the stolen base totals he did last year, but he's still an aggressive hustler on the basepaths ...

* Javy Lopez: Very effective low-fastball hitter who will pull for power with a jack swing ... Capable of going the other way the outer half. He uses the whole field well ... Especially dangerous when ahead in the count ... Stays down well on fastballs, but swings over breaking stuff ... Will chase sliders away ... Has drawn only 10 walks this season ...

* Brian Roberts: Arguably the first-half MVP in the American League, Roberts hit just .226/.308/.396 in July and has posted a .267/.283/.356 line in August, with no steal attempts ... Sure, he's hitting for less power than in his insane April, but frankly, he seems to be a bit unlucky of late on balls in play -- after being really lucky early in the season ... Still drives pitches out over the plate into the gaps ... Offers at breaking stuff down and in from the left side -- one of his few holes against righties ... More tentative from the right side, and it's worth going to a lefty to turn him around ...

* Rafael Palmeiro: Will return from suspension tonight, likely to a mixed but moderately supportive reception. It'll be a different story when the O's visit the A's on Monday night ... Was enjoying a successful July before his suspension was ordered at .299/.379/.529 ... Sen. John McCain said on ESPN SportsCentre yesterday that although he didn't "know what [Palmeiro] was thinking" with his dramatic (and apparently false) denials before Congress, he thought it would be unlikely for the House of Representatives to pursue perjury charges against the slugger for his "I never used steroids" statement under oath. Nevertheless, the matter is under official investigation and the House panel has subpoenaed all previous drug test records of Palmeiro ... Perlozzo has offered Palmeiro unequivocal support, to Raffy's pleasant surprise ...

* Eric DuBose: Will start in place of the injured Sidney Ponson, who strained a calf while "running" to cover first on Sunday ... Was 8-10 for AA Bowie with a solid 3.25 ERA and 114 K's against only 29 walks over 122 innings. Then again, he was a 29-year-old with big league experience pitching in AA ... Went 4-6 last year over 14 starts with the O's, posting a 6.39 ERA with poor peripherals ... Has a fine 2-1, 2.00 line all-time against the Jays over 27 innings pitched ... Good curve that he needs to keep on the corners ... Vulnerable against righthanded hitters ...

* Miguel Tejada: The seemingly slump-immune Tejada is putting up a .268/.318/.317 line in August, with no home runs ... Still making contact, but seems to be lapsing into a bit of an uppercut swing lately ... Waits on breaking pitches (in the strike zone) well ... Has recently been chasing badly on breaking stuff down and away ... Chasing up and in, too ...

* Sammy Sosa: Hitting just .206/.289/.324 in August ... Closing in on the home run # 600 ... Stands with a less pronounced crouch than in his big years with the Cubs ... Can still drive pitches out over the plate for power, although he hasn't been hitting tape-measure shots ... Having difficulty catching up to good fastballs lately, especially on the inner half of the plate ...

* Luis Matos: Good breaking-ball hitter, especially against lefties ... Has cut down his strikeouts dramatically this season, as he's somewhat rebounded from his poor '04 ... Still doesn't like outside pitches, especially when they're breaking balls from righties ... Can be overpowered by fastballs away ...

* Melvin Mora: After belting 15 dingers in the first half, Mora has just one since the All-Star Break, posting a .255/.342/.316 line over that time ... Has been pulling off pitches lately, especially pitches on the outer half ... Teams are pounding him away, and he hasn't yet adjusted ... Has been dealing with a mildly sprained ankle ...

* Erik Bedard: The Ontario native is coming off a fine performance against Tampa ... Has dominated the Jays twice this season by pounding the strike zone ... His slow curve moves laterally rather than vertically. It's hittable if he doesn't spot it properly ... Likes to backdoor righties with a high-80s slider ... Smooth, easy delivery and a nice slide step with runners on first ... Uses his high-70s curve as his out pitch against lefties ...

* B.J. Ryan: Has converted his last four save opportunities after blowing three in July ... Hides the ball very well, then comes at hitters with a three-quarter-arm angle ... His low-90s heater seems quicker than that. He runs it away from righthanded hitters ... Good late movement on his high-80s slider ...

* Jay Gibbons: Hits off his front foot, but keeps his weight back well on breaking pitches. He'll pull any junk left up in the zone for power ... Hit a grand slam on Wednesday night ... Often lays off pitches on the inner half, even if they catch the plate ...

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