Well, since Mike D's interview with these players gives more information about their character, potential and projectability than 178 plate appearances in a short-season league five steps below Toronto, there's not much I can say about this team that could improve on Mike's excellent work out on Coney Island. You're invited to read along, anyway.
As I write this, Auburn is off the pace of their previous Atlanta Braves-style seasons, as they are only 20-21. However, that is enough to top the Pinckney Division, even though the last place team is only 2.5 games worse. It will be an interesting stretch drive for Auburn -- their season ends September 8th, or about five weeks from now. But for now, let's take a look at how the Doubledays did in June and July. (This review includes the first three Blue Jay picks of the 2005 draft, if you're wondering.)
Note: as with all the players doing well in Auburn, a promotion would help to determine what they could provide to the major league club, but if none of these guys are in Lansing or Dunedin yet, they won't be until next year. Another note: this monthly review includes the June statistics, as does the Pulaski review, because it would be silly to discount the first nine games of the season based on arbitrary calendar limits.
HittingMiddle of the pack in runs scored and on-base percentage, Auburn is actually near the top in slugging average. They are, predictably, dead last in stolen bases and they even steal at a bad rate -- 59% through July.
Taking a closer look at the power of this team, there are three players who slugged .500 or better in June and July combined. Cory Patton, Ryan Patterson and Joey Metropoulos. Patton turned 23 before the season started, and he struggled in Lansing in his pro debut, being knocked down to the NY-Penn League. In order to pass judgement on Patton, I'd either need to see him back in Lansing, doing well, or at a higher level. And since I don't cover those higher levels, I have to conclude my analysis with nothing. Moving on...
Patterson looks to be the best bet of these three, as he's made a nice transition from LSU to Auburn -- .325/.371/.544 so far, though he's hitting .352 on balls in play. He has wood bat experience from the Cape Cod League, and perhaps that explains his high mark in BABIP. It certainly explains why he's started off better than his fellow early round outfield pick, but more on him later. For comparison, there are only a dozen players in the majors who can claim a .350 or better BABIP. So this is either a fluke or he's driving the ball well, I can only speculate, and I think it's the latter. I cannot come to any solid conclusion on his defense in CF, having never seen the man play, but it's worth noting that he is lifted for a defensive replacement in the 8th or 9th at times -- and if either one of the corner outfielders sits out a game, Patterson is bumped to LF or RF
Brian Pettway was drafted a round ahead of Ryan Patterson, but he's a step behind so far. His slow start bumped him to the bottom of the order, and he's only at .222/.283/.393. The power is almost there and he actually held his own against Patterson in July: 4 2B, 2 3B, 4 HR against 6-0-6, the difference is Pettway is on pace for approximately 180 strikeouts over a 162 game season. Patterson? Less than half of that.
The third hitter contributing to this team's power is Metropoulos, who actually has more rate power than Patterson so far, despite being cubed in homeruns, 8-2, because he missed a few games. It doesn't hurt that he has 10 walks in 95 PA (compared to Patterson's 11 in 178), but he can only play first base. And, for what it's worth (which is probably nothing), he's made seven errors there in approximately 140 innings. This is also his second time through the league, but keep in mind that he's still just 21, just under the league average age. And he did just fine last year at age 20, too.
Josh Bell is another 2005 draftee in Auburn. He's remarkably similar to Pettway offensively, the only differences are Pettway's stronger power and Bell's bigger luck, for lack of a better term. His power potential is great, however, so look for him to improve slightly through August and moreso in 2006.
Finally, Manny Sena. Even though he prefers a singles-and-steals game (like, as he said, Luis Castillo), he hasn't done that in his pro career. The stolen bases, anyway -- he went 5-for-5 over two years in Rookie ball and is 4-for-6 this year. Perhaps it's not his fault -- Syracuse, New Hampshire, Dunedin and Lansing are all at or near the bottom in SB this year -- but if it wasn't for his 3 HR, he'd have no offensive value whatsoever. He seems to be a good shortstop, starting there exclusively since June 29, and he's usually playing the whole game unless he's pulled for a pinch-hitter.
Here are the statistics through July 31 for all the hitters, ranked by total PA:
Hitters G AB PA AVG OBP SLG R H 2B 3B HR BB K SB CS R Patterson 39 160 178 .325 .371 .544 21 52 11 0 8 11 27 3 1 E Sena 39 145 159 .234 .296 .317 20 34 3 0 3 13 52 4 2 B Pettway 30 117 127 .222 .283 .393 14 26 4 2 4 10 35 0 0 S Shoffit 32 102 123 .255 .374 .363 17 26 8 0 1 18 25 1 2 C Patton 27 109 119 .294 .353 .578 20 32 8 1 7 9 29 0 0 J Bell 27 110 114 .255 .281 .382 9 28 8 0 2 3 33 0 1 J Acey 26 106 112 .302 .339 .443 10 32 9 0 2 4 26 0 0 N Thomas 30 91 110 .231 .355 .396 12 21 4 1 3 17 20 0 0 A Garibaldi 29 99 106 .202 .255 .364 16 20 3 2 3 3 27 2 1 J Metropoulos 24 84 95 .274 .347 .500 13 23 11 1 2 10 18 0 0 K Bohm 23 68 81 .250 .358 .412 7 17 6 1 1 10 9 0 0 M Cooksey 24 62 80 .177 .363 .194 7 11 1 0 0 16 17 2 1 B Bormaster 20 59 70 .288 .371 .407 11 17 4 0 1 8 11 0 0 M Bernhard 20 46 58 .174 .345 .196 7 8 1 0 0 8 14 1 1 J Celigoy 17 35 40 .200 .275 .286 5 7 3 0 0 4 13 0 0
Pitching
Auburn is at the top in strikeouts and near the bottom in walks -- which I mean as a good thing, they have allowed the second-fewest walks in the NY-Penn League. Accordingly, we'll start off the pitcher who has the best strikeout rate on the team. Bobby Ray was drafted in the seventh round this year, and he's appeared in eight games through July 31 with an ERA of 1.67, an opponents' batting average of .158, and 27% of batters faced struck out (27% KBF). No homers, either. Good start so far, especially with just one wild pitch -- most of the team has three or more.
Of course, he's only pitched 27 innings, the fourth-most on the team. Ahead of him are Orlando Trias, Randy Dicken and Kristian Bell. Trias is only 21, and he's doing okay. A 3.50 ERA and 24 strikeouts in 43.2 innings means he isn't setting the world on fire. Dicken and Bell, on the other hand, are striking more batters out yet giving up more hits and homeruns. You could argue that one of these three is better than the others, but at this point in their minor league careers, Bell and Trias seem the same. If you put a gun to my head, I'd peg Bell as the best of the three. And for the record, I like Ray the best so far.
Up next we have the de facto closer, Paul Phillips. You could hardly ask for a better relief pitcher, as he has a WHIP under 1 and numbers of .192 and 1.29 for BAA and ERA. We'll see if he can keep it up through August.
There are many pitchers on this team, and covering any more at this point would probably make your eyes glaze over. So, I'll just give the names of the ones I believe to have the best chance, based solely on hunch and guesswork. I covered Bobby Ray earlier; add Sean Stidfole to the list. If he keeps his season up and adds some weight to his 6-3, 175 frame, watch out. Billy Carnline is someone else -- he's pitched much better than his 4.62 ERA indicates.
Of course, Ricky Romero is an obvious player to watch, but he didn't do much before his promotion to High-A. He only appeared in one game: Friday, July 22nd against Tri-City. His first inning was perfect, with a strikeout, a pop fly and a 1-3 groundout. He got into some trouble in the second inning, giving up two singles, uncorking a wild pitch and walking the bases loaded, but he struck out two batters to get out of the jam. All in all, a great professional debut and we all wait to see how he does in August with Dunedin.
Here are the statistics through July 31 for all the pitchers, ranked by total batters faced:
Pitchers IP ERA WHIP H R ER HR BB K AVG TBF KBF
O Trias 43.7 3.50 1.28 42 19 17 1 14 24 .246 192 13%
R Dicken 38.3 3.76 1.57 45 22 16 4 15 44 .285 175 25%
K Bell 37.7 4.78 1.51 42 30 20 2 15 42 .278 172 24%
A Martin 26.3 3.42 1.41 36 13 10 1 1 18 .324 116 16%
E Fowler 27.0 2.00 1.07 20 7 6 1 9 25 .200 111 23%
B Carnline 25.3 4.62 1.58 30 14 13 0 10 26 .303 110 24%
R Ray 27.0 1.67 0.85 15 8 5 0 8 29 .158 106 27%
E Rodriguez 22.0 3.27 1.18 22 14 8 1 4 14 .256 93 15%
G Alfaro 19.7 6.41 1.73 27 14 14 2 7 22 .333 88 25%
J Sowers 18.0 7.50 1.78 26 18 15 0 6 10 .342 87 11%
P Phillips 21.0 1.29 0.95 14 7 3 1 6 19 .192 83 23%
S Stidfole 15.7 4.02 1.40 18 12 7 0 4 19 .269 72 26%
B Grant 10.7 13.50 2.06 16 19 16 2 6 8 .348 56 14%
A Tressler 13.3 0.00 0.68 8 0 0 0 1 11 .170 48 23%
Y Berroa 7.3 2.45 0.82 6 2 2 0 0 8 .214 28 29%
D Day 3.0 3.00 2.33 4 2 1 0 3 4 .286 17 24%
R Romero 2.0 0.00 1.50 2 0 0 0 1 2 .254 9 23%
Any comments are appreciated, especially first-hand reports of any player on the Doubledays. If you would like to watch an Auburn game, all of their home games are broadcast live from the press box camera.
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