Auburn Doubledays: July in Review (And June Too)

Monday, August 08 2005 @ 09:00 AM EDT

Contributed by: Rob

Well, since Mike D's interview with these players gives more information about their character, potential and projectability than 178 plate appearances in a short-season league five steps below Toronto, there's not much I can say about this team that could improve on Mike's excellent work out on Coney Island. You're invited to read along, anyway.

As I write this, Auburn is off the pace of their previous Atlanta Braves-style seasons, as they are only 20-21. However, that is enough to top the Pinckney Division, even though the last place team is only 2.5 games worse. It will be an interesting stretch drive for Auburn -- their season ends September 8th, or about five weeks from now. But for now, let's take a look at how the Doubledays did in June and July. (This review includes the first three Blue Jay picks of the 2005 draft, if you're wondering.)

Note: as with all the players doing well in Auburn, a promotion would help to determine what they could provide to the major league club, but if none of these guys are in Lansing or Dunedin yet, they won't be until next year. Another note: this monthly review includes the June statistics, as does the Pulaski review, because it would be silly to discount the first nine games of the season based on arbitrary calendar limits.

Hitting

Middle of the pack in runs scored and on-base percentage, Auburn is actually near the top in slugging average. They are, predictably, dead last in stolen bases and they even steal at a bad rate -- 59% through July.

Taking a closer look at the power of this team, there are three players who slugged .500 or better in June and July combined. Cory Patton, Ryan Patterson and Joey Metropoulos. Patton turned 23 before the season started, and he struggled in Lansing in his pro debut, being knocked down to the NY-Penn League. In order to pass judgement on Patton, I'd either need to see him back in Lansing, doing well, or at a higher level. And since I don't cover those higher levels, I have to conclude my analysis with nothing. Moving on...

Patterson looks to be the best bet of these three, as he's made a nice transition from LSU to Auburn -- .325/.371/.544 so far, though he's hitting .352 on balls in play. He has wood bat experience from the Cape Cod League, and perhaps that explains his high mark in BABIP. It certainly explains why he's started off better than his fellow early round outfield pick, but more on him later. For comparison, there are only a dozen players in the majors who can claim a .350 or better BABIP. So this is either a fluke or he's driving the ball well, I can only speculate, and I think it's the latter. I cannot come to any solid conclusion on his defense in CF, having never seen the man play, but it's worth noting that he is lifted for a defensive replacement in the 8th or 9th at times -- and if either one of the corner outfielders sits out a game, Patterson is bumped to LF or RF

Brian Pettway was drafted a round ahead of Ryan Patterson, but he's a step behind so far. His slow start bumped him to the bottom of the order, and he's only at .222/.283/.393. The power is almost there and he actually held his own against Patterson in July: 4 2B, 2 3B, 4 HR against 6-0-6, the difference is Pettway is on pace for approximately 180 strikeouts over a 162 game season. Patterson? Less than half of that.

The third hitter contributing to this team's power is Metropoulos, who actually has more rate power than Patterson so far, despite being cubed in homeruns, 8-2, because he missed a few games. It doesn't hurt that he has 10 walks in 95 PA (compared to Patterson's 11 in 178), but he can only play first base. And, for what it's worth (which is probably nothing), he's made seven errors there in approximately 140 innings. This is also his second time through the league, but keep in mind that he's still just 21, just under the league average age. And he did just fine last year at age 20, too.

Josh Bell is another 2005 draftee in Auburn. He's remarkably similar to Pettway offensively, the only differences are Pettway's stronger power and Bell's bigger luck, for lack of a better term. His power potential is great, however, so look for him to improve slightly through August and moreso in 2006.

Finally, Manny Sena. Even though he prefers a singles-and-steals game (like, as he said, Luis Castillo), he hasn't done that in his pro career. The stolen bases, anyway -- he went 5-for-5 over two years in Rookie ball and is 4-for-6 this year. Perhaps it's not his fault -- Syracuse, New Hampshire, Dunedin and Lansing are all at or near the bottom in SB this year -- but if it wasn't for his 3 HR, he'd have no offensive value whatsoever. He seems to be a good shortstop, starting there exclusively since June 29, and he's usually playing the whole game unless he's pulled for a pinch-hitter.

Here are the statistics through July 31 for all the hitters, ranked by total PA:

Hitters	        G	AB	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	SB	CS
R Patterson	39	160	178	.325	.371	.544	21	52	11	0	8	11	27	3	1
E Sena	        39	145	159	.234	.296	.317	20	34	3	0	3	13	52	4	2
B Pettway	30	117	127	.222	.283	.393	14	26	4	2	4	10	35	0	0
S Shoffit	32	102	123	.255	.374	.363	17	26	8	0	1	18	25	1	2
C Patton	27	109	119	.294	.353	.578	20	32	8	1	7	9	29	0	0
J Bell	        27	110	114	.255	.281	.382	9	28	8	0	2	3	33	0	1
J Acey	        26	106	112	.302	.339	.443	10	32	9	0	2	4	26	0	0
N Thomas	30	91	110	.231	.355	.396	12	21	4	1	3	17	20	0	0
A Garibaldi	29	99	106	.202	.255	.364	16	20	3	2	3	3	27	2	1
J Metropoulos	24	84	95	.274	.347	.500	13	23	11	1	2	10	18	0	0
K Bohm	        23	68	81	.250	.358	.412	7	17	6	1	1	10	9	0	0
M Cooksey	24	62	80	.177	.363	.194	7	11	1	0	0	16	17	2	1
B Bormaster	20	59	70	.288	.371	.407	11	17	4	0	1	8	11	0	0
M Bernhard	20	46	58	.174	.345	.196	7	8	1	0	0	8	14	1	1
J Celigoy	17	35	40	.200	.275	.286	5	7	3	0	0	4	13	0	0

Pitching

Auburn is at the top in strikeouts and near the bottom in walks -- which I mean as a good thing, they have allowed the second-fewest walks in the NY-Penn League. Accordingly, we'll start off the pitcher who has the best strikeout rate on the team. Bobby Ray was drafted in the seventh round this year, and he's appeared in eight games through July 31 with an ERA of 1.67, an opponents' batting average of .158, and 27% of batters faced struck out (27% KBF). No homers, either. Good start so far, especially with just one wild pitch -- most of the team has three or more.

Of course, he's only pitched 27 innings, the fourth-most on the team. Ahead of him are Orlando Trias, Randy Dicken and Kristian Bell. Trias is only 21, and he's doing okay. A 3.50 ERA and 24 strikeouts in 43.2 innings means he isn't setting the world on fire. Dicken and Bell, on the other hand, are striking more batters out yet giving up more hits and homeruns. You could argue that one of these three is better than the others, but at this point in their minor league careers, Bell and Trias seem the same. If you put a gun to my head, I'd peg Bell as the best of the three. And for the record, I like Ray the best so far.

Up next we have the de facto closer, Paul Phillips. You could hardly ask for a better relief pitcher, as he has a WHIP under 1 and numbers of .192 and 1.29 for BAA and ERA. We'll see if he can keep it up through August.

There are many pitchers on this team, and covering any more at this point would probably make your eyes glaze over. So, I'll just give the names of the ones I believe to have the best chance, based solely on hunch and guesswork. I covered Bobby Ray earlier; add Sean Stidfole to the list. If he keeps his season up and adds some weight to his 6-3, 175 frame, watch out. Billy Carnline is someone else -- he's pitched much better than his 4.62 ERA indicates.

Of course, Ricky Romero is an obvious player to watch, but he didn't do much before his promotion to High-A. He only appeared in one game: Friday, July 22nd against Tri-City. His first inning was perfect, with a strikeout, a pop fly and a 1-3 groundout. He got into some trouble in the second inning, giving up two singles, uncorking a wild pitch and walking the bases loaded, but he struck out two batters to get out of the jam. All in all, a great professional debut and we all wait to see how he does in August with Dunedin.

Here are the statistics through July 31 for all the pitchers, ranked by total batters faced:

Pitchers	IP	ERA	WHIP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	AVG	TBF	KBF
O Trias	        43.7	3.50	1.28	42	19	17	1	14	24	.246	192	13%
R Dicken	38.3  	3.76	1.57	45	22	16	4	15	44	.285	175	25%
K Bell	        37.7	4.78	1.51	42	30	20	2	15	42	.278	172	24%
A Martin	26.3	3.42	1.41	36	13	10	1	1	18	.324	116	16%
E Fowler	27.0	2.00	1.07	20	7	6	1	9	25	.200	111	23%
B Carnline	25.3	4.62	1.58	30	14	13	0	10	26	.303	110	24%
R Ray	        27.0	1.67	0.85	15	8	5	0	8	29	.158	106	27%
E Rodriguez	22.0	3.27	1.18	22	14	8	1	4	14	.256	93	15%
G Alfaro	19.7	6.41	1.73	27	14	14	2	7	22	.333	88	25%
J Sowers	18.0	7.50	1.78	26	18	15	0	6	10	.342	87	11%
P Phillips	21.0	1.29	0.95	14	7	3	1	6	19	.192	83	23%
S Stidfole	15.7	4.02	1.40	18	12	7	0	4	19	.269	72	26%
B Grant	        10.7    13.50	2.06	16	19	16	2	6	8	.348	56	14%
A Tressler	13.3	0.00	0.68	8	0	0	0	1	11	.170	48	23%
Y Berroa	7.3	2.45	0.82	6	2	2	0	0	8	.214	28	29%
D Day	        3.0	3.00	2.33	4	2	1	0	3	4	.286	17	24%
R Romero	2.0	0.00	1.50	2	0	0	0	1	2	.254	9	23%

Any comments are appreciated, especially first-hand reports of any player on the Doubledays. If you would like to watch an Auburn game, all of their home games are broadcast live from the press box camera.

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