Only 4.5 games separate the Jays from the postseason, but seemingly the whole league blocks their path. They must surpass Boston, New York and Baltimore to win the East, or they must vanquish Oakland, Minnesota, and several others to gain a wildcard berth. Today, they play unwilling host to the West-leading Los Angeles Angels (of Anaheim). LA has the third-best record in baseball and a daunting 29-18 road record. LA features an unexceptional but aggressive and entertaining offense, a solid rotation, and an outstanding bullpen. Taking two of three from them would be quite an accomplishment.
Let the scouting commence!
General: Nearly 100 games into the season, Toronto has not played Los Angeles. Toronto leads the series 158-153. The Angels’ path to the postseason runs through the East, against whom they play 31 of their final 63 games. Los Angeles was a franchise-best 50-31 at midseason, but a four-game sweep at the hands of Seattle left them 52-36 at the All-Star break and only five games ahead of Texas, who had swept Toronto. LA has won seven of eleven since the break against an onerous schedule of Minnesota, Oakland, and New York, but they must now hold off a revived Athletics squad that sits only five games back. LA has led the West for all but six days this season.
Like AL-best Chicago, LA’s offense does not inspire awe. LA is 11th in the American League in home runs and next-to-last in walks. The Angels are on pace to hit 134 homers, which would be their lowest total in a non-strike year since 1993. They’re also on pace to draw only 419 walks, lowest since 1992. Thanks to some luck (or clutch ability, if you prefer), LA is only eighth in runs scored. After adjusting for a home park that’s depressing runs about 9% this season, their offense sits in the middle of the pack.
Los Angeles compensates for a so-so offense with a stellar pitching staff and defense. Even in a pitcher-friendly park, LA has an RA+ (Index of Runs Allowed adjusted for park) of 113, second only to Chicago. The Angels have 48 more strikeouts than any team in the league Though a middling sixth in defensive efficiency, LA trails only Boston in fewest unearned runs and only Texas in allowing runners to reach via error.
* Vladimir Guerrero: While still an offensive force, Vlad is on pace for his lowest OPS and fewest walks since 1997, when he was 21. Guerrero is not yet 30 and seems a bit young to descend from godlike to merely great. Guerrero has a surprisingly respectable walk rate for his career, but almost one-third of them are intentional. This season, he has only five gift passes and his walk rate has plummeted. Guerrero is batting only .105 since the break after hitting .335 beforehand. Has a line of .378/.439/.595 at Skydome since 2002.
* Bengie Molina: Only regular other than Vlad with an OPS over .800. Don’t count on that to last, as Molina has a .701 OPS for his career. Like most Angels, he prefers not to strikeout or walk. Molina played DH for a couple of games because of a sore wrist. He resumed duties behind the plate last Saturday but had Sunday off.
* Garrett Anderson: As with Guerrero, Anderson might achieve his lowest OPS in eight seasons. Since hitting 29 homers in 2002 and 2003, Anderson has hit only 25 in 206 games. Nevertheless, Anderson has contributed greatly by hitting .335/.360/.534 with runners on base. Various minor ailments have forced him to DH every fifth game or so.
* Adam Kennedy: Missed a month with a bum knee but is batting twenty points over his career-best of .312. Generally a free-swinging flyball hitter without much power, Kennedy developed adequate patience and a little pop to compensate for a declining average. This season, he‘s not walking much and his power has disappeared, but his average has jumped to .332.
* Chone Figgins: Has played everywhere but first, catcher and pitcher. Has taken over third with the absence of Dallas McPherson. Eight more steals will give him a career best for any season at any level. Figgins has never been hit by a pitch in the Majors. LA acquired him straight-up from Colorado for the immortal Kimera Bartee, who played a total of twelve games for the Rox and batted .000 with two walks. Advantage, LA.
* Darin Erstad: A superior defensive centerfielder, Erstad moved to first with the arrival of Guerrero. He has the worst OPS in the league among first basemen. He has yet to come within 200 points of the .950 OPS he posted in 2000. He runs less now than in years past but doesn’t get caught (32-for-36 since 2003) and doesn’t ground into many DPs.
* Steve Finley: The 40-year-old has struggled mightily at the plate (.231/.291/.399) has missed almost four weeks with a strained shoulder. Has a .333 slugging percentage in the ten games since his return.
* Orlando Cabrera: Yet another hacker. Cabrera signed a four-year, $32 million deal with LA and thus far has carried last year’s struggles in Montreal with him. He is batting .246/.300/.351 and missed several weeks with a sore elbow.
* Maicer Izturis: Filled in capably for the injured Cabrera and McPherson, batting .288/.339/.415 at short and third. Izturis came to LA with Juan Rivera for Jose Guillen and was a teammate of Cabrera in 2004. Not an everyday player but should get at least one start in the series.
* Jeff DaVanon: Extra outfielder and part of a troubled DH platoon. A switch-hitter who plays almost exclusively against righties, DaVanon endured a nightmarish April and May before rebounding during the last two months. The rare Angel with a fantastic walk ratio.
* Juan Rivera: The other part of the DH platoon, Rivera has backslide considerably from a promising ’04. The righthanded hitter has a drastic reverse split (.812 OPS vs righties, .556 against lefties).
* Paul Byrd: Tuesday’s starter missed all of 2003 because of Tommy John surgery. He pitched well for Atlanta in 2004 and has done the same for LA this season for the modest sum of $5 million. Has walked only 1.3 batters per nine innings since his return. Byrd features a solid fastball and changeup and a strong slider. He doesn’t induce many ground balls.
* Bartolo Colon: Colon broadens the definition of athlete with his round physique. At the 2004 All-Star break, Colon looked like a flop with his 6.38 ERA, but since then he has justified his $51 million contract. Colon really isn’t a strikeout artist (about 6.5 per nine innings). This season, he is walking fewer batters than ever and has reversed his long-ball tendencies.
* John Lackey: Has taken a step up from the average to the very good. Not historically adept at getting hitters to swing at air, Lackey has struck out 125 in 123 innings in addition to dropping his homer rate.
* Francisco Rodriguez: LA wins with a ferocious bullpen, and Francisco is its leader. Rodriguez stepped into the closer role with ease, essentially pitching identically to last season but with the saves that promise future riches. Rodriguez has a slider that snaps hitters in two and will melt your picture tube. He last allowed a run on June 21, 15.2 innings ago.
* Scot Shields: The unsung hero of the staff. Shields has thirteen starts and twelve saves over the last three seasons. Can pitch three consecutive days, go two-plus innings, whatever the Angels need. Shields throws four pitches; none is exceptional, but he strikes out plenty of hitters by making them guess wrong.
* Brendan Donnelly: Having a career-“worst” season so far with an ERA of 3.21 and only 7.5 Ks per nine innings. Allows plenty of fly balls, but they usually stay in the field.
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