What's Going to Happen in the AL East?
Monday, June 27 2005 @ 12:25 PM EDT
Contributed by: Pepper Moffatt
Not in the sunshine or the distance between
The cigarettes we burn
The books we claim to read
Standings as of June 27th, 2005
1. Boston 44-30 .595 (11-1 2WK)
2. Baltimore 42-33 .560 2.5 GB (6-7 2WK)
3. New York 38-37 .507 6.5 GB (8-5 2WK)
4. Toronto 38-38 .500 7.0 GB (7-6 2WK)
5. Tampa Bay 26-50 .342 19.0 GB (5-8 2WK)
Boston's lone loss over the last two weeks was a 2-0 loss to the Pirates in an epic
Tim Wakefield vs. Dave Williams matchup. The team went 2-1 vs. the Pirates, 3-0 vs. Cleveland,
and 3-0 vs. the Phillies. The Red Sox gained 5.5 games on the Orioles after playing only
12 games - and the Orioles haven't been playing all that badly! Youneverknow.
Are the Red Sox for real? The gaming community over at Tradesports.com
seems to think so:
Percentage Chance of Winning the Division
Boston: 58% (36% 2 Weeks Ago)
New York: 33% (33% 2 Weeks Ago)
Baltimore: 17% (27% 2 Weeks Ago)
Toronto: 2% ( 4% 2 Weeks Ago)
Tampa Bay: 0% ( 0% 2 Weeks Ago)
Percentage Chance of Winning the Pennant
Boston: 23% (16% 2 Weeks Ago)
New York: 18% (20% 2 Weeks Ago)
Baltimore: 8% ( 9% 2 Weeks Ago)
Toronto: 1% ( 1% 2 Weeks Ago)
Tampa Bay: 0% ( 0% 2 Weeks Ago)
I've been trying to figure out what's going to happen in the division and I'm at a bit of a loss.
There's a number of ways this division could play out. Here's a few that I've seen:
Boston Red Sox - Plus Scenario
The Red Sox continue to chug away on all cylinders and add some bullpen help
(Eddie Guardado?, Octavio Dotel?) at the deadline as Matt Mantei and Keith Foulke
have struggled all year long. Clement continues to pitch well and Schilling comes back
strong near the end of August. THe team wins 100 games and easily takes the division.
Boston Red Sox - Minus Scenario
The bullpen implodes and the team is unable to find that the Yankees have driven the
price of quality relievers too high on the trade market. Schilling is unable to return
this season and Clement and/or Arroyo falter down the stretch. The team still wins nearly
90 games but it isn't enough to take the division or the Wild Card from surging Orioles
and Yankees teams.
Boston Red Sox - Likely Scenario
The team plays .580 ball for the rest of the season, wins about 95 games, enough for a playoff position.
Baltimore Orioles - Plus Scenario
The cast of nobodies in the rotation slows down a bit but still pitches strong enough
to let their powerful bats win games for them. The team adds a veteran pitcher
(Kip Wells?) to shore up the staff as well as an additional bat for the outfield.
The bullpen remains solid and the team finishes in the low-mid 90s for wins,
enough for a playoff spot.
Baltimore Orioles - Minus Scenario
The rotation completely collapses and Erik Bedard is unable to return to form from his
knee injury. Brian Roberts turns back into a pumpkin and the team loses a lot of 7-5
games, falling behind both the Yankees and the Blue Jays in the standings.
Baltimore Orioles - Likely Scenario
The team adds a couple of players at the deadline, but no one significant. The team hums
along at a .550 clip for the season, finishing at 90 wins - 4 games behind the Wild Card
winner.
New York Yankees - Plus Scenario
George Steinbrenner opens his wallet and acquires practically every player at the deadline
including a gaggle of relivers and Bret Boone from the Mariners. This improves the team
while at the same time makes it difficult for the Orioles and Red Sox to acquire reinforcements.
Randy Johnson turns back into the Randy Johnson of old, and teamed with
a revitalized Mike Mussina provide a potent 1-2 punch down the stretch. The team goes
on fire during the second half, wins nearly 100 games in total along with another division
title.
New York Yankees - Minus Scenario
Instead of acquiring anyone good the Yankees deal for a bunch of washed up players like
Bret Boone from the Mariners. They do little to help and the clubhouse turns to chaos.
A-Rod goes out for six weeks with an ankle injury, devastating the offense. The team
finishes with 74 wins, their lowest full-season total since 1991. People still complain
about New York's sprendthrift ways and what it is doing to the sport.
New York Yankees - Likely Scenario
They acquire everyone at the deadline and play well during the second half and finish in
the low 90s in wins, which may or may not be good enough for a Wild Card.
Toronto Blue Jays - Plus Scenario
Boston and Baltimore's minus scenarios come true and the Yankees continue to play at a .500 clip.
Sensing an opportunity, the Jays acquire
A.J. Burnett at the break, but at a hefty price. Roy Halladay continues to be Roy Halladay
and Ted Lilly finds his groove. Vernon Wells becomes the team leader we all know he's
capable of and carries the team on his back to a 95-win season and a wild card spot.
Toronto Blue Jays - Minus Scenario
Roy Halladay feels a twinge in his arm and Vernon Wells pulls a hamstring. J.P. does little
at the deadline, not liking the prices being offered for his veterans. Alex Rios is
overmatched at centre, the team loses a lot of low scoring games and goes 30-56 over the next few months,
finishing the year at 68 wins. But they still finish ahead of Tampa!
Toronto Blue Jays - Likely Scenario
The Jays are neither a buyer nor a seller at the deadline and continue with the same team
they've had all year long. Everyone plays at about the same level they have all year and
the Jays finish right around the .500 mark - about 7 games better than I expected them to
at the beginning of the year.
Your Thoughts?
So what do you expect will happen down the stretch?
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