Last week, I went to at least some of two games: Monday, Halladay's great game vs Suppan, and Wednesday, Aaargh, I mean Lilly, vs Suppan. Of course, the Jays won both of those games. My co-worker Rob went to Tuesday's game with friends, and the Jays promptly lost.
This week is turning out to be the Bizzaro version of last week; the games I'm showing up to (Tuesday's) were lost, and the games Rob has gone to (last night's) are won. I think I'm going to today's Halladay-Ponson match-up, and I think I'll invite Rob; if all goes as expected, it'll be 0-0 in the 14th before God realizes what's going on and obliterates the Earth with a comet.
Aaron Hill went 0-2 last night, with a walk and a HBP. Through 107 AB, Aaron has a .374/.442/.533 line, with 11 walks and 7 strikeouts. He's actually declined somewhat from his initial 41 AB in May, in which he achieved .415/.455/.585; in June, he's declined to .359/.431/.516. Oh, you're out of filet mignon? I guess I'll just have prime rib then.
Of course, the question on everybody's mind is "Is Aaron Hill for real?" Alternately, you might be wondering, "Just how predictive is the first 100 AB, anyways?" I can't really answer either question, but I can give a little bit more insight into the relevance of early stats.
To decide who to look at, I've looked at the top 11 players, in Runs Created (as listed at The Hardball Times), for both leagues. Current stats are as of June 21, 2005.
Player Team RC PA HR BA OBP SLG GPA Lee, Derrek CHN 82 305 20 .390 .475 .714 .392Derrek was called up a couple of times by San Diego in 1997, but had limited at-bats and was often used as a late-inning substitution, compiling 4 or more at-bats in a game only 5 times. His first full-time season was the next year for the Marlins.
Player AB HR BB SO BA OBP SLG Lee, Derrek 54 1 9 24 .259 .365 .370
Player Team RC PA HR BA OBP SLG GPA Pujols, Albert STL 68 315 18 .333 .420 .597 .338I think just about everybody knows how Albert's first full season went. He started 2001 with St. Louis, and managed a line of .329/.409/.610 in 161 games. It might surprise you that he actually started hotter than he ended up over the full season:
Player AB HR BB SO BA OBP SLG Pujols, Albert 101 8 8 18 .366 .429 .703
Player Team RC PA HR BA OBP SLG GPA Abreu, Bobby PHI 66 316 16 .323 .446 .568 .343Bobby had only 22 AB in his first appearance in the majors, so we'll instead look at his next 188 which happened the next year. Here's how it went down:
Player AB HR BB SO BA OBP SLG Abreu, Bobby 188 3 21 48 .250 .329 .372
Player Team RC PA HR BA OBP SLG GPA Sheffield, Gary NYA 64 298 12 .313 .420 .526 .321Gary broke in in 1988 with Milwaukee, of all places. Here's his first 80 AB:
Player AB HR BB SO BA OBP SLG Sheffield, Gary 80 4 7 7 .237 .295 .400
Player Team RC PA HR BA OBP SLG GPA Rodriguez, Alex NYA 62 311 20 .323 .428 .605 .344Alex' first two seasons didn't total too many games, so they're both presented here:
Player AB HR BB SO BA OBP SLG Rodriguez, Alex 54 0 3 20 .204 .241 .204 Rodriguez, Alex 142 5 6 42 .232 .264 .408Of course, since then, there's been no looking back.
Player Team RC PA HR BA OBP SLG GPA Roberts, Brian BAL 60 282 11 .355 .434 .592 .343Brian's first four seasons are all basically the same - .260/.320/.360. This breakout was really unforeseeable.
Player AB HR BB SO BA OBP SLG Roberts, Brian 102 0 3 11 .265 .283 .353
Player Team RC PA HR BA OBP SLG GPA Teixeira, Mark TEX 57 315 20 .296 .365 .581 .310Mark's success, on the other hand, was not unforeseeable.
Player AB HR BB SO BA OBP SLG Teixiera, Mark 103 3 11 21 .233 .322 .408
Player Team RC PA HR BA OBP SLG GPA Johnson, Nick WAS 56 297 8 .321 .444 .514 .329Nick the Stick was anything but in his first call-up with the Yankees.
Player AB HR BB SO BA OBP SLG Johnson, Nick 67 2 7 15 .194 .308 .313
Player Team RC PA HR BA OBP SLG GPA Ortiz, David BOS 56 307 18 .303 .386 .584 .320The Cookie Monster, on the other hand...
Player AB HR BB SO BA OBP SLG Ortiz, David 49 1 2 19 .327 .353 .449 Ortiz, David 73 4 8 19 .315 .398 .598
Player Team RC PA HR BA OBP SLG GPA Tejada, Miguel BAL 56 305 19 .315 .370 .620 .321Miguel didn't look like an MVP in his first call-up.
Player AB HR BB SO BA OBP SLG Tejada, Miguel 99 2 2 22 .202 .240 .333
Player Team RC PA HR BA OBP SLG GPA Delgado, Carlos FLA 55 286 14 .325 .423 .584 .336Our greatest and best old friend showed hints of what would come:
Player AB HR BB SO BA OBP SLG Delgado, Carlos 130 9 25 46 .215 .352 .438
Player AB HR BB SO BA OBP SLG Hill, Aaron 107 1 11 7 .374 .442 .533His strikeout rate compares favourably with just about everyone on the list. His walk rate isn't up there, though, and he's shown only hints of the power the above (mostly) power hitters display. What I really wanted, to tell you the truth, was to see a listing of "the top 10 starts of all time," and look at where those players ended up. I've never found such a list, though.
If this listing gives hope to anybody, it should give hope to Russ Adams: you need not have a hot start to be a great player. Tejada couldn't hit his way out of a paper bag in his first 100 AB, and look at him now. Not listed, but something I also saw, was that the 2nd year slump wasn't uncommon, even among these rare talents. (Not Pujols, but hey, Pujols is scary.)
For now, I'm going to be content watching Hill tear it up for the next few months. If it turns out to be the next few years — or even decades — all the better. I have all the faith in the world in him.
https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20050622234619555