Not even Tuesday Burley mojo could cope with this. Hell hath no fury, etc., etc. Chris Carpenter returned to Toronto and kicked some Blue Jay butt. He faced one batter over the minimum, and his Game Score of 94 was the best in the major leagues this year.
But... you have to consider who he was facing.
The Blue Jays have been shut out in three of their last six games, and have scored a total of 34 runs in 13 June games. Nobody wins scoring 2.6 runs per game, not even Roy Halladay.
The Blue Jays scored 719 runs last year, 12th out of 14 AL teams. This year, they are on pace to score 720 runs, which should be good enough for 10th place. The good news... well, they're scoring 4.45 runs a game despite losing Carlos Delgado. The bad news, of course, is that they're scoring 4.45 runs a game.
We all knew this was going to happen, didn't we? Enough of us said as much in the Blue Jays Roundtable Preview. To wit:
Dave Till: They'll have trouble scoring enough runs.
Jordan: The offence just won't be there.
Gerry: I am concerned about the offense, will it score enough?
Magpie: 79-83. Sorry, they just won't score quite enough runs.
That's one of my few pre-season prophecies that isn't making me duck and cover ("the White Sox will finish third"). But it seemed obvious. Take away the best hitter from the twelfth best offense in the league... there will be problems.
You notice that having expected it to happen somehow doesn't make the experience more tolerable? Why is that?
In a moment of rash optimism, the kind of giddiness we are all permitted in spring training, I allowed myself to speculate on what would be required for the Blue Jays to contend. This year. My thinking was that cutting the runs allowed by about 60 was feasible - just give all Pat Hentgen's innings to Roy Halladay.
If this happened, and the offense stayed at the same level of 4.45 runs per game, the Jays would probably win 78-80 games. To get beyond that and into actual contention for a post-season berth would require roughly a 100 run improvement from the offense. So my bright idea - hey, it was spring, I even called the piece And I Have a Dream Today - was this: How about if every spot in the lineup, plus the bench, is 10 runs better than last year. Is that feasible?
Probably not, but I proceeded to run down a scenario by which it was... uh... thinkable.
Since then, the pitching part of that happy equation has gone much better than anticipated. The Jays are on pace to reduce their runs allowed by a whopping 130 runs. The struggles of Ted Lilly and, to a lesser extent, Dave Bush have been more than offset by the return to health of Roy Halladay, the impressive development of Gustavo Chacin, and the improved work turned in Josh Towers, Pete Walker, and the bullpen.
It doesn't look, however, as if the Jays are going to tack on an extra 100 runs of offense. No way, no how.
Anyway, once again I've been playing with spreadsheets, and will be passing along lots of numbers for you to consider. Yes - I report, you decide.
Let's go position-by-position through the American League, and see how the Jays are doing. Everybody is ranked by Runs Created - I'm an old-fashioned guy. I might mention right now that it was the enormous manual labour involved in preparing these tables that delayed Today's Game Report, oh hungry readers. If I wasn't a rookie, I'd have some help. I bet Professor Mo Phatt has students that he keeps chained up in his office, just for this type of chore.
CATCHER GPL ABT R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS HBP SO BB GDP BAV OBP SLG RC Boston 63 237 34 70 13 1 12 29 0 0 4 58 22 3 .295 .364 .511 44 Chicago Sox 63 227 34 64 11 0 11 28 0 3 6 28 13 3 .282 .336 .476 36 NY Yankees 62 227 28 59 8 0 8 28 0 0 1 41 25 2 .260 .335 .401 30 Minnesota 61 235 23 63 8 0 5 29 3 1 3 29 21 8 .268 .333 .366 29 Tampa Bay 64 220 20 61 11 0 5 23 0 0 0 30 18 6 .277 .332 .395 28 LA Angels 63 209 21 55 6 0 9 33 1 2 1 40 18 6 .263 .320 .421 28 Texas 62 216 19 58 12 0 5 32 0 0 2 36 15 1 .269 .319 .394 27 Baltimore 63 237 30 57 11 0 11 36 0 0 1 51 11 9 .241 .274 .426 27 AVERAGE 62 226 26 56 10 0 6 28 1 1 2 40 18 6 .248 .307 .383 26 Detroit 60 242 35 60 14 2 5 27 2 2 1 46 10 10 .248 .277 .384 25 Kansas City 62 214 26 48 9 1 6 26 2 1 0 52 15 4 .224 .273 .360 21 Oakland 62 245 29 56 11 0 0 19 3 0 5 25 23 11 .229 .308 .273 20 Cleveland 61 235 21 48 9 0 6 26 0 0 3 28 20 7 .204 .270 .319 20 Toronto 64 208 20 43 10 1 4 32 1 0 1 42 28 6 .207 .299 .322 20 Seattle 61 211 17 44 11 0 3 21 0 2 2 53 6 7 .209 .236 .303 15This, alas, was one of the positions where it seemed reasonable to expect improvement. After all, Kevin Cash had more than 180 at bats last year. Unfortunately, Ken Huckaby makes Kevin Cash look a lot like Johnny Bench. Jays catchers were 10th in runs created in 2004; this year, they're 13th.
FIRST BASE GPL ABT R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS HBP SO BB GDP BAV OBP SLG RC Texas 62 259 48 73 16 1 16 48 1 0 4 43 20 5 .282 .343 .537 47 Baltimore 63 229 38 71 11 1 9 34 3 1 2 22 28 5 .310 .385 .485 43 Minnesota 61 241 33 66 12 3 11 44 0 0 3 42 20 4 .274 .332 .485 39 Seattle 61 221 39 55 14 0 14 48 1 0 1 70 34 6 .249 .350 .502 38 Boston 63 240 29 70 11 1 7 32 0 0 6 31 24 5 .292 .366 .433 38 Kansas City 62 252 30 74 16 1 7 37 3 0 1 35 14 6 .294 .330 .448 37 Chicago Sox 63 227 34 55 6 0 14 39 0 0 3 55 36 6 .242 .352 .454 36 AVERAGE 62 236 34 63 12 1 9 36 2 1 3 43 24 6 .265 .339 .437 35 NY Yankees 62 220 38 53 10 0 14 40 1 0 4 42 28 7 .241 .333 .477 35 LA Angels 63 265 40 74 15 2 3 32 4 2 0 49 20 1 .279 .329 .385 34 Cleveland 61 238 30 63 18 3 8 34 2 0 2 42 11 6 .265 .303 .466 33 Toronto 64 239 41 61 10 1 8 34 6 0 4 51 19 6 .255 .318 .406 31 Oakland 62 234 25 61 10 0 3 23 0 1 3 31 25 9 .261 .337 .342 26 Tampa Bay 64 226 26 53 14 1 3 30 5 4 0 39 33 5 .235 .332 .345 26 Detroit 60 217 24 46 11 0 6 22 0 1 5 54 25 6 .212 .308 .346 23First base figured to be a problem - even after a slow start and missing a month with an injury, Delgado powered Toronto first basemen to 4th in the AL in runs created. The fall-off here was pretty much unavoidable, even though Hinske and Hillenbrand have played well by their own standards.
SECOND BASE GPL ABT R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS HBP SO BB GDP BAV OBP SLG RC Baltimore 63 257 45 91 16 5 11 34 14 4 3 36 31 7 .354 .430 .584 66 Texas 62 255 51 72 17 0 19 44 8 0 3 47 14 4 .282 .325 .573 48 Chicago Sox 63 248 32 73 12 2 4 31 8 3 1 48 21 7 .294 .348 .407 36 Kansas City 62 226 30 64 11 1 6 26 4 4 4 39 18 2 .283 .341 .420 33 LA Angels 63 231 37 68 12 2 2 28 14 3 1 40 16 3 .294 .337 .390 33 AVERAGE 62 233 31 63 13 1 6 26 5 2 2 42 19 5 .269 .326 .407 31 Cleveland 61 231 26 62 10 0 8 27 6 0 4 31 12 5 .268 .313 .416 31 Tampa Bay 64 234 32 62 12 1 5 25 2 1 3 49 17 8 .265 .320 .389 29 Seattle 61 228 24 55 14 2 5 31 3 1 3 42 18 5 .241 .304 .386 27 NY Yankees 62 230 26 62 16 0 3 21 2 3 3 37 9 8 .270 .303 .378 26 Boston 63 214 30 50 16 0 3 16 1 0 0 75 38 5 .234 .346 .350 26 Oakland 62 226 24 54 9 1 5 23 1 0 1 29 24 4 .239 .311 .354 25 Minnesota 61 217 27 58 10 2 2 12 4 2 1 46 15 5 .267 .315 .359 25 Toronto 64 248 24 55 11 2 2 28 4 1 2 30 17 5 .222 .273 .306 21 Detroit 60 214 21 50 13 1 3 24 4 1 2 37 11 4 .234 .273 .346 21This has been a major disappointment. Both Hudson and Menechino are having poor years at the plate, and Hudson has added to the damage by being especially awful when he hits near the top of the order. Hudson is hitting .219 when he bats first or second; he's hitting .302 when he bats 6-7-8.
THIRD BASE GPL ABT R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS HBP SO BB GDP BAV OBP SLG RC NY Yankees 62 229 48 75 12 0 19 56 6 3 4 43 39 5 .328 .434 .629 63 Baltimore 63 254 43 77 15 0 13 43 6 1 5 44 19 7 .303 .361 .516 48 Toronto 64 242 43 76 9 2 9 34 1 1 6 38 23 5 .314 .386 .479 44 Texas 62 256 37 75 18 0 11 37 1 0 0 57 25 5 .293 .356 .492 44 Detroit 60 236 36 71 12 5 5 27 3 1 0 53 32 4 .301 .383 .458 41 Tampa Bay 64 237 35 71 15 0 8 34 1 0 4 46 13 7 .300 .345 .464 37 AVERAGE 62 234 34 63 12 1 8 31 3 1 3 46 21 7 .270 .338 .432 34 Boston 63 220 37 62 14 0 4 27 0 0 8 33 32 11 .282 .392 .400 33 Oakland 62 244 30 61 11 0 10 38 0 0 1 55 23 5 .250 .315 .418 32 Chicago Sox 63 208 30 52 8 0 9 25 1 4 8 30 16 6 .250 .322 .418 28 LA Angels 63 233 31 53 14 5 7 24 4 3 2 59 16 6 .227 .282 .421 28 Minnesota 61 221 29 57 15 0 3 24 3 3 1 43 19 15 .258 .316 .367 25 Seattle 61 249 35 59 13 0 5 30 1 0 3 43 11 4 .237 .277 .349 24 Kansas City 62 224 25 58 11 1 2 21 4 2 1 41 15 6 .259 .308 .344 24 Cleveland 61 222 18 38 5 1 5 20 4 2 5 52 11 8 .171 .225 .270 14This has been the good news, and this was expected - Koskie replaces Hinske. In fact, the good work has been shared equally by Koskie and Hillenbrand, with Hill making a nice contribution recently.
SHORTSTOP GPL ABT R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS HBP SO BB GDP BAV OBP SLG RC Baltimore 63 257 45 83 22 3 17 51 1 1 2 34 18 8 .323 .371 .630 59 Texas 62 260 44 79 11 3 8 34 2 1 1 35 21 9 .304 .358 .462 42 NY Yankees 62 252 40 72 9 2 6 26 7 3 6 45 32 3 .286 .377 .409 40 Tampa Bay 64 259 33 74 11 2 2 29 15 3 1 26 18 5 .286 .331 .367 34 Oakland 62 214 33 57 16 3 4 25 3 0 0 25 26 5 .266 .346 .425 31 Boston 63 263 37 71 10 2 5 28 3 0 1 41 17 11 .270 .317 .380 31 AVERAGE 62 234 31 63 11 2 5 26 5 1 2 35 18 5 .267 .322 .404 31 Cleveland 61 211 25 56 10 4 7 23 1 2 1 45 18 7 .265 .321 .450 30 Detroit 60 231 28 63 7 5 3 18 4 0 2 35 19 5 .273 .333 .385 30 Kansas City 62 253 32 63 11 2 5 20 4 4 6 49 9 2 .249 .291 .368 27 LA Angels 63 238 27 59 12 2 4 21 6 0 2 22 16 4 .248 .301 .366 27 Minnesota 61 228 30 58 12 1 5 27 2 0 1 39 16 4 .254 .305 .382 27 Toronto 64 201 23 48 10 2 4 25 9 0 1 24 17 3 .239 .296 .368 23 Chicago Sox 63 212 25 50 12 0 4 30 5 3 0 33 14 3 .236 .276 .349 21 Seattle 61 194 17 42 7 2 0 9 4 3 3 32 12 3 .216 .273 .273 15Jays shortstops have gone from 13th in the league to 12th. It's something, I suppose, but I think we were expecting a bit more improvement here, especially after the way Russ Adams hit last September.
LEFT FIELD GPL ABT R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS HBP SO BB GDP BAV OBP SLG RC Texas 62 233 44 71 21 3 15 46 1 1 3 35 24 0 .305 .374 .614 54 Toronto 64 252 36 78 14 4 7 34 0 4 10 34 12 5 .310 .362 .480 43 LA Angels 63 250 37 79 13 3 7 49 1 1 0 35 16 5 .316 .354 .476 42 Tampa Bay 64 267 42 77 12 4 7 39 15 3 2 50 13 1 .288 .322 .442 41 Boston 63 249 40 62 13 1 14 54 1 0 4 54 28 8 .249 .331 .478 39 Minnesota 61 262 40 74 9 0 10 36 3 1 4 28 18 6 .282 .334 .431 38 Cleveland 61 236 34 66 15 1 8 26 5 5 0 36 26 4 .280 .350 .453 38 Detroit 60 238 27 71 11 2 10 43 1 0 2 41 8 4 .298 .323 .487 37 AVERAGE 62 242 35 68 13 2 7 34 6 3 3 38 19 4 .279 .339 .433 36 Chicago Sox 63 245 42 71 7 0 0 18 32 9 3 35 27 3 .290 .363 .318 34 Seattle 61 228 24 66 19 0 1 24 8 5 2 32 24 2 .289 .358 .386 33 Baltimore 63 240 29 66 13 2 7 29 3 1 0 44 11 4 .275 .303 .433 32 Kansas City 62 230 24 62 10 3 4 27 3 3 2 33 16 5 .270 .319 .391 29 NY Yankees 62 253 40 63 9 1 3 27 14 1 0 41 24 5 .249 .311 .328 28 Oakland 62 211 25 42 10 1 5 22 1 3 10 33 23 1 .199 .306 .327 21This is a shocker, but Reed Johnson and Frank Catalanotto have been better than expected. Add to that the way that Manny Ramirez has struggled, the Yankees decision to play Tony Womack in left, and this is what you get.
CENTRE FIELD GPL ABT R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS HBP SO BB GDP BAV OBP SLG RC Boston 63 267 52 93 18 4 2 37 7 1 0 26 26 2 .348 .402 .468 52 Minnesota 61 237 42 67 17 1 11 43 14 5 7 36 21 6 .283 .356 .502 44 Tampa Bay 64 241 46 72 16 2 8 33 12 3 1 43 15 3 .299 .341 .481 41 Cleveland 61 249 34 74 11 6 6 30 8 4 1 55 13 4 .297 .335 .462 39 Chicago Sox 63 239 35 68 16 1 5 28 9 2 7 43 15 3 .285 .342 .423 36 Toronto 64 245 30 64 10 1 13 34 2 2 0 32 20 6 .261 .311 .469 36 Oakland 62 258 35 73 16 1 4 36 1 2 1 25 21 2 .283 .337 .399 35 AVERAGE 62 241 35 67 14 2 5 31 7 3 2 37 19 4 .278 .332 .421 35 Detroit 60 216 30 68 12 2 2 17 13 4 0 31 10 6 .315 .344 .417 33 LA Angels 63 239 29 57 17 2 8 36 7 5 2 35 20 5 .238 .299 .427 31 Kansas City 62 245 35 65 10 6 2 26 1 5 4 41 22 3 .265 .335 .380 31 Seattle 61 227 27 61 16 1 3 25 4 2 1 34 22 3 .269 .335 .388 30 NY Yankees 62 242 28 61 17 1 3 33 2 0 0 35 25 6 .252 .317 .368 28 Baltimore 63 232 37 60 9 1 3 27 11 3 3 29 19 3 .259 .319 .345 27 Texas 62 243 28 56 11 4 4 32 2 1 0 54 12 7 .230 .265 .358 23Jays centre fielders are sixth in runs created; last year they were seventh. Vernon Wells, of course, missed a month with an injury last year - we were all hoping that a healthy Wells might be able to repeat his sensational 2003 performance. Not yet...
RIGHT FIELD GPL ABT R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS HBP SO BB GDP BAV OBP SLG RC LA Angels 63 248 47 76 14 1 13 43 10 4 4 24 17 7 .306 .361 .528 48 NY Yankees 62 235 36 69 15 0 11 43 6 1 1 35 39 4 .294 .392 .498 47 Kansas City 62 223 38 65 20 2 10 39 0 1 3 46 25 7 .291 .368 .534 43 Boston 63 232 39 67 12 0 11 48 1 0 2 25 30 4 .289 .369 .483 42 Baltimore 63 246 32 68 15 2 13 36 1 0 2 36 19 8 .276 .333 .512 41 Tampa Bay 64 243 34 74 14 2 4 33 10 3 5 44 22 3 .305 .369 .428 40 Seattle 61 254 41 75 7 6 3 19 15 4 0 26 19 1 .295 .342 .406 38 Minnesota 61 222 27 63 10 2 8 37 5 5 5 46 26 9 .284 .366 .455 37 AVERAGE 62 235 34 64 12 2 9 35 5 3 3 41 23 5 .271 .341 .450 36 Chicago Sox 63 239 29 62 14 1 13 35 4 2 4 47 13 9 .259 .309 .490 35 Oakland 62 238 33 69 12 1 5 35 2 0 1 44 20 6 .290 .347 .412 34 Texas 62 225 36 52 8 0 13 35 3 3 4 51 24 4 .231 .315 .440 31 Toronto 64 244 33 61 13 5 4 27 7 5 2 53 15 5 .250 .297 .393 29 Cleveland 61 230 28 47 11 2 8 23 3 6 2 47 26 4 .204 .291 .374 25 Detroit 60 217 22 45 4 3 6 32 3 2 2 45 22 4 .207 .280 .336 21Alex Rios is making some progress overall, but at this point most of his value still comes from his batting average. Sparky and the Gambino went 6-37 (.162) while playing RF, which didn't help.
DH GPL ABT R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS HBP SO BB GDP BAV OBP SLG RC Boston 57 222 39 62 17 0 14 52 0 0 1 48 31 6 .279 .366 .545 44 Detroit 54 209 35 63 14 2 10 30 1 1 3 42 14 5 .301 .354 .531 39 Cleveland 52 193 30 53 11 0 10 26 0 0 5 41 30 4 .275 .386 .487 36 Minnesota 55 210 31 60 11 2 5 21 4 0 4 41 19 3 .286 .355 .429 32 Seattle 55 202 27 56 11 1 7 25 2 0 1 42 24 5 .277 .357 .446 32 Kansas City 56 197 29 48 11 0 10 27 1 1 1 43 32 4 .244 .349 .452 31 Texas 56 199 36 49 6 3 7 20 2 2 2 45 37 4 .246 .368 .412 30 Toronto 58 216 31 60 16 2 3 21 0 0 6 37 17 9 .278 .347 .412 30 AVERAGE 55 203 29 52 11 1 7 28 2 1 3 41 23 6 .257 .337 .425 29 Chicago Sox 54 201 25 50 8 0 10 40 3 3 1 34 18 4 .249 .307 .438 28 Tampa Bay 55 206 25 53 13 0 7 36 2 0 4 58 14 5 .257 .311 .422 27 Baltimore 57 208 28 46 15 1 6 30 0 0 0 23 18 8 .221 .278 .389 22 Oakland 53 199 24 45 7 1 5 22 1 0 2 34 22 8 .226 .309 .347 21 NY Yankees 53 182 19 38 8 0 5 23 0 0 5 51 24 4 .209 .315 .335 19 LA Angels 54 202 24 47 4 2 1 16 8 3 0 38 16 9 .233 .288 .287 17Improvement here seemed fairly predictable, if only because Jays DHs were so poor in 2004 (12th in the league.)
https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20050615023606550