On May 29, Roy Halladay took the mound against the Minnesota Twins in the Rogers Centre. Two hours and eight minutes later, Matt LeCroy swung and missed at Halladay's 99th pitch, completing the two-hit shutout. Halladay's game score that game was 93, the highest game score to date this season. Halladay is also in a tie for second-highest game score this season (with Brad Radke), from his complete-game 3-hit shutout of the Yankees on April 29.
Well, that Halladay didn't show up yesterday. Just like his last game, Roy struggled to shut out his opponent. Unlike in Oakland, though, Roy received no run support from his 7 batters and Huckaby, and he get saddled with the loss.
Aaron Hill, of course, continued to perform, with 1/3 of both the team's hits and walks (and only 1/10th its strikeouts). The last time a hitter came up and impressed like this is — well, Josh Phelps, actually, and given that he's just been designated for assignment from his third team in two seasons, you know that didn't turn out too well.
Come to think of it, when's the last time a highly touted prospect came up to the big leagues, then consistently produced for the next few years?
Let's start in 2002, J.P. Ricciardi's first season with the Jays. This is during the Great Salary Jettison of '02 (memorable quote: "why did J.P Ricciardi trade away Billy Koch to Oakland for what I feel to be practically nothing?" and I won't mention Daniel Rosario's name so he won't live in infamy forever), punctuated by such great memories as Prokopec admitting he was hurt (then never pitching again) and Mondesi sitting thanks to being late for a practice.
Many of you probably remember Brandon Lyon. I remember him being an up-and-coming pitcher of the future, a great player on which to base the franchise. Stephen Tomlinson thought so too, even listing Lyon's major-league debut game (and first win) of August 4, 2001 on his list of "Memorable Games." (Lyon started in place of another name fans from the Gord Ash Era will cherish, Joey Hamilton. Hamilton was released, and Lyon started in his place.)
In an astonishing turn of events, though, Lyon proceeded to implode all over the majors and AAA in 2002, to the point that he was placed on waivers by the Blue Jays, then claimed by the Red Sox. After bouncing around during the 2003 season (he was traded to the Pirates, then traded back), he seems to have found a home in Arizona closing games. Maybe.
Of course, there is the always-enignmatic Josh Phelps. 2002 was his first real season of work, and he made the most of it, hitting .309/.362/.562. He was the 2003 Baseball Prospectus cover boy, and I believe everyone knows the story from this point (declining power, declining OBP, declining stock in the organization).
Oh, Felipe Lopez. What could have been. You have to wonder — if Mondesi and Lopez had never occupied the same clubhouse, would things have been different? His pretty good 2001 debut was followed up by a somewhat worse 2002, and he was then involved in a 4-way trade which sent Durazo to the A's and Arnold to the Jays. Cincinatti, of course, received Lopez, who has made some significant strides (to say the least). If he had performed like he is now in 2003 — like everyone thought he was capable of, or maybe even better — I don't think the Jays draft Aaron Hill.
And, well, I think you have to consider The Man With The Gold Glove here too. While Vernon Wells' real breakout year was 2003, he played the whole season in Toronto in 2002, and performed decently: .275/.305/.457. That .243 GPA turned into .290 the next year, but dove back down to .261 in 2004. Of course, everyone here is likely aware of Wells' performance this season; his .246 GPA has come all the way back down to 2002 performance, albeit over much less than a full season. In 2003, Vernon was a bit young to be having a career year (which usually happens around age 27), but it sure looks as though that was the mirage, not the oasis.
And what list of 2002 players would be complete without Daniel Rosario's favourite player, Eric Hinske? The Dude lived up to his future nickname in 2002, compiling a .275 GPA and receiving Rookie of the Year for his efforts. He fell to a Wellsian .249 GPA the next year, and a positively Huckabian .226 the year after. He's rebounded this year, all the way up to .249 again; the two players signed at the same time shall play at the same level, I suppose.
There are some other players of interest in 2002, but I'll leave that to you. I'd like to forge on to 2003, the last truly happy time for many Jays fans.
If Aquilino Lopez is not a familiar name to you, you probably weren't enough paying attention. He was a Rule V pick from the Mariners, who apparently soured on him after he aged several years overnight (it's astonishing what those birth certificates will do to your skin elasticity). Unlike Jason DuBois in 2004 (who should really learn to pronounce his last name correctly), this Rule V draft pick stuck, and he pitched 73 2/3 innings for the Jays, striking out 64 and walking 34. For a while Lopez acted as the closer without being "the closer"; his save total of 14 attests to the fact that Tosca eventually gave him the nod.
The year after, Ricciardi had picked up what many believed to be pretty significant upgrades on the bullpen, and Aquilino, while not necessarily the "closer" anymore, would be an integral part of this bullpen, a strong arm who could get guys out. Except he couldn't do that as well anymore; he stopped striking out as many people, and started walking more. He was granted his free agency in 2004, and was signed by the Dodgers. He hasn't appeared in a major-league game this season, but for Las Vegas this year, he's once again started missing bats and has walked many, many fewer.
Other than Aquilino's future performance, not much went wrong in 2003, though. Cliff Politte started giving up way, way too many home runs, but the Jays, by and large had a good year in 2003.
Rather than talk specifically about people called up in 2004, I'd like to talk about the men who were supposed to be part of the future, but who haven't put it all together.
Jason Arnold, as I mentioned above, has struggled a lot since we received him for Lopez. Gross has failed to perform at the major-league level. Adam Peterson was called up from AA, cratered, and his remaining parts made bigger craters as they fell back down to AAA. Brandon League looks like he might be able to avoid the Adam Peterson career path, but the jury's still out. Eric Crozier is gone. Simon Pond is gone. Terry Adams is gone. (Wait, that's a good thing.)
Even many established players have struggled. Batista and Lilly, who admittedly don't necessarily have the best record of consistency, have alternately shown their pretty side or the ugly, acid-burned side that they cover up with make-up, just like no comic book character that I've ever heard about. Where are the success stories? For an organization that is supposed to be about building, why do I see so much crumbling and wreckage?
There are some players you can't keep down. Look at Halladay - after his rebirth in 2001, he's been just about unstoppable. On his bad days he's usually better than the rest of the league. On his good days you may as well leave your bat on your shoulder. O-Dog, too: my mind is still blown from some plays he makes. Reed Johnson is, well, Sparky: he does what he does, and he does it well. Maybe Hill will be one of these types of players. I just get the feeling that these players are making it in spite of the organization, not because of it. There are always a lot of hard-luck stories in baseball; TINSTAAPP, and so on. Not everyone has the mental makeup or physical ability to make it, even those people selected in the first round. "Can't miss" prospects miss all the time. But I'm still worried.
Hill might be the second coming of Nomar, or he might be the second coming of Joe Lawrence. (Wait, scratch that last option.) In either case, he's going to need the support to help him adjust to the league's adjustments to him, and this organization has just not shown that it's capable of getting players to take that next step.
Is it all bad luck? To be expected? A mirage?
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