Jordan Furlong postulated the following in the April 27 Game Thread:
Hey, here's a project for anyone interested in doing the legwork -- rank the Blue Jays' best and worst 5th starters in franchise history...I'll bet you'll find Josh Towers has been one of the best the Jays have sent out there.
Legwork and pitchers in the same sentence? A rapier-like wit, this one. Let’s get right to it.
There are some rules we need to establish. In order,
We started with 507 pitcher-seasons, and the 14 remaining pitchers are shown below, ranked by ERA+.
Fifth Starter Year GS ERA K/9 WHIP ERA+ IP Halladay 2001 16 3.16 8.2 1.17 150 105 Candiotti 1991 19 2.98 5.6 1.26 142 130 Bush 2004 16 3.69 5.9 1.29 132 98 Stottlemyre 1994 19 4.22 6.7 1.45 114 141 Alexander 1983 15 3.93 3.5 1.31 110 117 Guzman 1998 22 4.41 7.0 1.41 106 145 Stewart 1993 26 4.44 5.3 1.37 99 162 Stottlemyre 1989 18 3.88 4.4 1.46 97 128 Alexander 1986 17 4.46 5.3 1.30 95 111 Moore 1979 16 4.84 3.3 1.59 90 139 Cerutti 1990 23 4.76 3.2 1.54 83 140 Moore 1978 18 4.93 4.7 1.57 80 144 Hamilton 1999 18 6.52 5.1 1.63 75 98 Stottlemyre 1988 16 4.34 6.2 1.62 69 98
Thanks to Baseball-Reference.com, possibly the greatest site in the world, for the historical statistics.
The best fifth starter in Blue Jays history? None other than Roy Halladay in 2001, one year removed from his terrible season and two years before his Cy Young season. (Aside: Is anyone surprised that Joey Hamilton is at the bottom of this list?) Dave Bush is the top-rated Rookie Fifth Starter (now there's a worthy title) and I was surprised to see so much of Todd Stottlemyre, since he shows up three times out of 14 pitchers.
What about Jordan’s Josh Towers query?
Well, Towers’ 2003 season was right in the middle, with a 105 ERA+ but the second-lowest WHIP, 1.21. However, that wasn’t a Fifth Starter year because he didn’t pitch 90 innings. He barely cleared 60. If you want to consider him a fifth starter in 2003, then he was, at best, in the middle of the pack.
In 2004, Josh Towers was not very good. He wasn’t considered the fifth starter because only three pitchers, Roy Halladay, Miguel Batista and Ted Lilly, "out-started" him and the Bush-Hentgen-Miller mix behind him all took starts away from each other in one way or another. Anyway, his 2004 would have been 10th out of 15, so...no, not good.
Jordan said: I'll bet you'll find Josh Towers has been one of the best [fifth starters] the Jays have sent out there.
Rob says: Sorry, Jordan, it looks like Towers wasn’t one of the best. Now, as for that bet...oh, I'm just kidding. Maybe 2005 will be the year for Control Towers.
Then I decided to check out every team in 2004, to determine the best fifth starter in the American League. Using the same qualifications, we end up with 10 pitchers from 14 teams:
Fifth Starter Team GS ERA K/9 WHIP ERA+ IP Tim Hudson OAK 27 3.53 4.9 1.26 133 189 David Bush TOR 16 3.69 5.9 1.23 132 98 Bronson Arroyo BOS 29 4.03 7.2 1.22 121 179 Aaron Sele ANA 24 5.05 3.5 1.62 91 132 *T Mulholland MIN 15 5.00 4.4 1.59 91 123 Joaquin Benoit TEX 15 5.68 8.3 1.40 89 103 Gary Knotts DET 19 5.25 5.4 1.48 86 135 Jason Davis CLE 19 5.51 5.7 1.74 82 114 Jose Contreras NYY 18 5.64 7.7 1.41 80 96 Mike Wood KCR 17 5.94 4.9 1.40 75 100
Dave Bush shows up again. He was beaten by just one pitcher for the 2004 American League Todd Stottlemyre Award, and that man was not your typical Fifth Starter. Tim Hudson missed a few starts, so Zito-Redman-Mulder-Harden all passed him in Games Started. Otherwise, he wouldn't show up here. Very close, Mr. Bush, but not quite.
(Note: A new rule came into play here -- if a pitcher shows up as a Fifth Starter for two different teams, he is removed from the study. Freddy Garcia made 15 starts for Seattle and 16 starts for Chicago after being traded for Miguel Olivo and Jeremy Reed on June 27. I took Garcia out because the very idea of a fifth starter means you're the fifth-best pitcher on your team, not on two different teams at once.)
I'll do the same for the 2005 American League once the statistics are available in the off-season.
What do the Bauxites notice in these stats? Anything stand out at you? Wondering why a certain pitcher isn't listed? I ignored the National League because I generally ignore the National League. I hate watching pitchers hit.
Oh, and it's perfectly possible that I missed a qualified Fifth Starter somewhere. Feel free to point out any errors and ask any questions.
I'll start this off by asking everyone who they think will be Toronto's Fifth Starter this year, and what his ERA will be. Remember, you can answer "nobody," if you think whoever makes the fifth-most starts will pitch less than 90 innings.
https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20050428155956325