Hall Watch 2004- The Outfielders-Barry Bonds

Tuesday, March 08 2005 @ 08:00 AM EST

Contributed by: Mike Green

Say it aint so, Barry. Tell me that ballplayers are athletes and not entertainers. Tell me that while almost everybody lies sometimes, that doesn't make it right. Ah, forget it.

Bonds' raw numbers from 2004 are as familiar as a neighbour- .362/.609/.812, 232 walks, 45 homers and only 41 strikeouts. It was a line for the ages, and the fact that he turned 40 in July made it all the more remarkable. The revelation of his BALCO grand jury testimony after the season ended was, however, the major event of Bonds' year. Is it possible that Bonds like Joe Jackson and Pete Rose before him will be excluded from the Hall of Fame?

Barry Bonds was the 6th overall pick (hey, there's hope yet for Jays' fans) of the 1985 draft. For the remainder of that season, he went .299/.383/.457 in the Pittsburgh's single A affiliate in Prince William at age 21, with 15 stolen bases. As a fine defensive centerfielder, he was a great prospect. The following season, he played 44 games at triple A, went .311/.435/.527 and stole 16 bases, and got the call to the majors. In his first season, he hit .223/.330/.416 with 16 homers, 65 walks and 36 stolen bases, but he struck out 102 times in 113 games. The Pirates moved him from centerfield to leftfield after 1986. By his 3rd season in 1988, he had gained control of the strike zone, and by his fifth (1990), his power arrived, and he won the first of his MVP awards.

Before trying to put our minds to the last few seasons, let's cast our minds back to 1998. Barry Bonds turned 34 in July, and had hit .303/.438/.609 and stolen 28 bases. He won another Gold Glove. Here is where he stood against the closest great outfielders of the game:

Player    G      AB     H     HR    W     BA     OBP    SLUG    OPS+     
Bonds-33  1898   6621   1917  411   1357  .290   .411   .556    163      
Robby-33  2064   7542   2283  450   1017  .303   .394   .555    157
Mays-33   1848   7036   2204  453   873   .313   .388   .589    162

Bonds had, at that point, stolen 445 bases. It's easy to place him- he was ahead of Frank Robinson both as a hitter and as a defensive player, and he was behind Mays, Mays' defensive superiority probably offsetting Bonds' slight offensive advantage.

So, what do we make of the last 5 years? Is it all one chemically-supported tease that should be consigned to the dustbin of history, or do we give Bonds some credit for his extraordinary late 30s performance? Bonds' discipline and attention to physical fitness is well known. In my view, absent any chemical enhancements, he stood a good chance, like Musial and Wagner before him, of maintaining his standards into his late 30s. The unexplained explosion, however, can now be taken to have an explanation.

Should Barry Bonds go into the Hall of Fame? Will he? Like Joe Jackson, Bonds' accomplishments, prior to 1998, clearly tag him as one of the greatest players in the game. Does taking steroids bring the game into disrepute in the same way that throwing a game or betting on a game does? It all depends on what is expected from the game. If it is a show (like the home run derby before the All-Star game), steroids, like breast implants for actresses, are just part of it. If it's supposed to be an athletic competition like the Olympics, then yes, steroids are like throwing a game or betting on a game. I'm from the latter camp, and would be content if Bonds and McGwire face the same penalty for their actions that Joe Jackson and Pete Rose did. I do not expect that they will. The leadership of MLB continues to rationalize past use of steroids on the basis that it was not contrary to MLB rules. I expect that Bonds will (appropriately) walk into the Hall of Fame on the first ballot.

Next up: Jim Edmonds

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