Spring Training Game Report 2 - Devil Rays 8 - Jays 4

Sunday, March 06 2005 @ 08:00 AM EST

Contributed by: Pepper Moffatt

Weaver's First Law: No one's going to give a damn in July if you lost a game in March.

On the topic of strategy, we'll discuss bench strategies the Jays could employ against right-handed pitchers this season.

When every player is healthy and a right-hander is starting for the bad guys, the Jays should trot out a line-up that looks something like this:

ORDER	NAME	BATS	PRI	SEC	OBP R	SLG R	OPS R	OBP L	SLG L	OPS L
1	Cat	L	LF	RF,1B	367	469	836	266	297	563
2	Hudson	B	2B		353	448	801	264	332	596
3	Wells	R	CF		326	491	817	359	512	871
4	Koskie	L	3B		388	505	893	330	381	711
5	Shea	R	DH	1B,3B	327	460	787	342	475	817
6	Hinske	L	1B	3B	346	443	789	309	395	704
7	Rios	R	RF	CF,LF	326	385	711	374	376	750
8	Zaun	B	C 		325	363	688	347	361	708
9	Adams	L	SS		388	597	985	182	100	282
Where "SEC" represents secondary positions that these nine have played over the last three seasons. I didn't bother filling in "DH" for any of these players, under the assumption that any hitter can meet the defensive demands of not playing defense. The OBP/SLG/OPS figures are from the 2002-2004 seasons. As always, keep sample sizes in mind, particularly for young players such as Adams and Quiroz.

Here's my best guess as to the composition of the bench:

ORDER	NAME	BATS	PRI	SEC	OBP R	SLG R	OPS R	OBP L	SLG L	OPS L
x	Johnson	R	LF	RF,CF	324	365	689	357	478	835
x	Menech	R	2B	3B,SS	345	332	677	367	465	832
x	McDon	R	SS	2B,3B	271	315	586	264	304	568
x	Quiroz	R	C		250	276	526	280	217	497
										
x	Myers	L	C		365	474	839	338	373	711
When Myers is healthy, it is likely he'll be on the 25-man roster and Quiroz will be in AAA.

Looking at the above line-up, there are two players that I can't see taking out for a defensive replacement or pinch-hitter: Vernon Wells and Shea Hillenbrand. Let's examine the other seven.

1. Frank Catalanotto

Since Reed Johnson is a better defensive player in LF, you've got to replace Frank with Reed if you don't expect the #1 slot in the order to come up in the game again. An obvious example is the bottom of the 9th when the Jays are leading on the road. That one is a no-brainer.

Cat is particularly weak against lefties, so when there's a left-handed reliever, you'd want Reed in there. Of course, if you use Reed to pinch-hit, the opposing manager may pull the lefty to put in a righty reliever. In that case, would you rather have Cat vs. the lefty or Reed vs. the righty? It depends on who the two relievers in question are, but in most cases I think you'd rather have Reed in there, particularly since your defense will end up getting a boost as well.

2. Orlando Hudson

This one is a bit tougher, since Orlando is such a terrific defensive player and is starting to improve vs. southpaws. If you're down in the 9th and the other team has a left-handed closer, you've got to pull the O-Dog and use Menechino or Reed to pinch hit. That's a no-brainer.

I can't see Orlando ever getting pinch-hit for when the Jays have the lead. His glove is far too valuable. The difficult decision comes when the Jays are down by a run or two in the 8th with men on base. Do you let the O-Dog hit against a lefty, or do you put Menechino in there? I think in most cases the opposing manager will have a righty warming up to face Wells, so if you put Menechino in, he'll bring in the righty a batter earlier than planned. Because of that and the drop in defense if you have Menechino or McDonald play 2nd, I don't think you'll see Hudson pinch hit for before the 9th.

4. Corey Koskie

Koskie has had some trouble against lefties, but unless it's the ninth inning against a left-handed reliever, I think you have to leave him in. There are other spots to use Menechino and Reed Johnson as pinch hitters, and the defensive drop-off between Koskie and Menechino is significant.

6. Eric Hinske

This slot is going to cause problems for the Jays late in a game. Unless Hinske gets his stroke back, I wouldn't want him at bat late in a game with runners on, particularly if a lefty is on the hill. At the same time, it's going to be difficult to pinch hit for him. The only player other than Hinske who is really qualified to play first is Hillenbrand, but if you put Hillenbrand at first, you lose the DH (and the pitcher has to bat in the DH slot) unless you perform a double-switch:

    The Designated Hitter may be used defensively, continuing to bat in the same position in the batting order, but the pitcher must then bat in the place of the substituted defensive player, unless more than one substitution is made, and the manager then must designate their spots in the batting order. Rule 6.10
A Tom Wilson type player who bats right-handed and can play 1st (and possibly other positions such as catcher), would really help the Jays out. Eric Crozier isn't really a solution here, since he hits lefty, and has yet to master major league breaking pitches.

7. Alexis Rios

If Cat is on the bench, I could see using him to pinch hit for Rios if a righty is on the hill. Since Cat is almost certainly going to be in the starting lineup when a righty starts, I don't see Rios getting pinch hit for.

8. Gregg Zaun

If Myers is healthy, I imagine he'd pinch hit for Zaun against a tough right-handed reliever. With Quiroz on the bench, I don't see this happening. I imagine the team would rather have Zaun's defense late in a game than Quiroz's, since Quiroz is still learning the ropes.

9. Russ Adams

Ignore the OPS figures; they're useless with such a small sample size. Late in the game you want John McDonald at short for his defense, similar to how you'd want Reed Johnson over Cat. Russ is a lot less likely to get pinch hit for rather than Cat, since you would not use John McDonald as a pinch hitter. Thus to pinch hit for Russ you shorten your bench by two players: the pinch hitter and John McDonald. Unless Gibbons gets creative with the double-switches, I don't see Adams getting pinch hit for too often.

Conclusion

When a right-hander starts expect to see Frankie Cat and Russ Adams pulled for defensive subs late in the game. Due to the small size of the bench (only 4 players), don't expect to see too many other moves, though in the 9th inning Hudson, Koskie, and possibly Hinske could be pinch hit for if the situation warrants.

In Other News...

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