Chipper Jones had his worst season in 2004 since his rookie campaign. His 2004 age 32 line was .248/.362/.485. A touchy hammy probably contributed mightily to his sub-par results. It did however continue a 4 year pattern of decline for Chipper, which he must reverse, if he intends to get the plaque in Cooperstown that seemed to be already inscribed for him in 2000.
Jones was the 1st overall pick of the 1990 draft by the Braves. After a miserable month in rookie league in 1990, he posted typical Jones numbers in low A Macon in 1991, .323/.405/.516. As a 19 year old shortstop, he was the hottest of prospects. That didn't change when he spent half a season in high A, and then went .346/.367/.594 in the second-half in double A Greeneville in 1992. On another club, he might have made the leap right to the majors, but the Braves had just begun their remarkable run of division championships and had Blauser and Pendleton occupying short and third. So, in 1993, Jones simply carried on his usual performance level at triple A Richmond at age 21. He missed all of 1994 with a knee injury, but by then both Blauser and Pendleton had had off-seasons and the door was open for Chipper. He stepped right in as the Braves third baseman in 1995, hitting .265/.353/.450, as the Braves won the World Series. From 1996-2003, Jones consistently hit .300 with power and plate discipline.
He was a third baseman until 2002, when he was moved to the outfield for 2 years. He returned to third base in 2004. He is an average defender, by reputation and according to the statistical metrics. Being a Brave, he has ample post-season experience, and has hit .294/.415/.459 in October. He was a fine perecentage base-stealer until age 28.
For Jones' chart, we have 2 comparables, who share some hitting attributes, as well as positions:
Player G AB H HR W BA OBP SLUG OPS+ Jones 1542 5616 1705 310 937 .304 .401 .537 141 Sheffield 1592 5661 1608 315 952 .295 .399 .521 146 Allen 1491 5447 1630 319 775 .299 .385 .544 165
Gary Sheffield is an excellent comp. Like Jones, Sheffield started out as a shortstop (he made it to the majors very young at age 19; the Brewers of Sheffield's youth were not pennant-winners, as Jones' Braves were). Sheffield spent his prime at third base, and has been in the outfield for most of his 30s. Dick Allen was a third baseman, who played some outfield and was then converted to a 1B/DH for good at age 30. Sheffield has kept on truckin' through age 35, but Allen's last good year was his age 32 season.
Is Jones headed for the Hall? Of course. A normal career path from here would have him end up as a decent 3B/OF with a .295 average and 450-470 homers on a perennial division champion. But, if he slips a bit, who knows? He's been an All-Star only 5 times (although he wasn't one in his 1999 MVP campaign). His major accomplishment of last year was probably a nice gesture towards his low A teammates in Macon, while on a rehab stint in the minors. His image is softening, and that probably will not hurt. It might seem cynical, but if one looks carefully the accomplishments of Jones, Sheffield and Dick Allen, it is easy to see how something so patently irrelevant might affect the voters' decision-making.
The numbers do lend themselves to a fuller appreciation of Dick Allen. Allen put up essentially the same raw numbers as Jones, but in the low run scoring environment of the 1960s instead of the current hitter's playground. Adjusted for context, through age 32, the difference between Chipper Jones and Dick Allen is roughly equal to the difference between Dick Allen and Ted Williams (OPS+ through age 32 of 190, and with a similar number of plate appearances thanks to Williams' military tours of duty).
Next up: Robin Ventura
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