A Blue Jay Draft Study - Part II
Tuesday, February 08 2005 @ 10:45 AM EST
Contributed by: Gerry
Yesterday I looked at the Blue Jays drafts from 1997 to 2003. On average the Jays drafts have produced one major league player per year, about average for the draft. Today I will do the same for the A’s, the Twins and the Indians.
Minnesota Twins
1997 draft
Round 1: Michael Cuddyer, (9th pick overall), major league regular (might end up as a part-timer)
Round 1: Matt LeCroy, part timer
Round 2: Michael Restovich, a prospect
Summary: A potentially successful draft, Cuddyer is just about a regular but could revert to a part timer
1998 draft
Round 14: Mike Gosling, cup of coffee
Round 17: JJ Putz, part time player
Round 24: Juan Padilla, cup of coffee
Round 34: Kevin Frederick, cup of coffee
Summary: The 1998 draft was not a good one for the Twins
1999 draft
Round 2: Rob Bowen, still a prospect
Round 3: Justin Morneau, major league regular
Round 26: Terry Tiffee, prospect
Summary: An average draft for the Twins, one regular and a couple of prospects
2000 draft
Round 1: Adam Johnson, cup of coffee
Round 2: JD Durbin, still a prospect, although likely headed for the bullpen
Round 12: Jason Kubel, still a prospect although just badly tore his knee and will likely miss all of 2005
Summary: The final verdict is still not in but this looks like an average to below average draft, the Kubel injury does lower this rating.
2001 draft
Round 1: Joe Mauer, 1st pick overall, major league regular
Round 13: Jason Bartlett, a prospect
Summary: I have not factored draft position into my analysis, although you will see this point come up again under the A’s review. Mauer’s potential makes this a successful draft, but when you have the #1 pick in the whole draft you expect to land a very good player.
2002 draft
Round 1: Denard Span, a prospect, barely
Round 2: Jesse Crain, a prospect, a likely part time player in the bullpen, could be considered a full timer if he makes it as a closer.
Summary: The 2002 draft could be average, at best.
2003 draft
Round 1: Matt Moses, a prospect although hampered by injuries
Summary: Not a good draft
To summarize, here is a chart of the last seven drafts:
Regular Part time Cup Coffee Prospect
1997 1 1 1
1998 0 1 3
1999 1 0 0 2
2000 0 0 1 2
2001 1 0 0 1
2002 0 0 0 2
2003 0 0 0 1
I was very surprised to see how poor the draft results for the Twins were over the last seven years. I expected to see a number of players coming through the system to justify their reputation as a good drafting and development team. From 1997 through 2001 the Twins had excellent draft positions as they lost an average of 92 games in the preceding years; with the exception of Mauer they were unable to capitalize on their good drafting position. Later I will look at the Twins roster to see where some of the players, that led them to division titles, came from.
Baseball America recently published the Twins top 10 prospects. Mauer, Kubel, Crain, Durbin and Bartlett made the list along with one non-drafted player, two 2004 picks, Moses and another pitcher who struggled at Triple A. Per Baseball America the Twins have a large number of pitchers in the minor leagues who can throw in the nineties, whether they become major leaguers or not is another issue. BA would give Minnesota’s minor league system a good rating because of “tools” like a 90+mph fastball, but their record in the last few years does not place them among the elite development systems.
Oakland A’s
1997 draft (The A’s had four 1st round picks)
Round 1: Eric DuBose part timer
Round 2: Chad Harville part timer
Round 3: Marcus Jones, cup of coffee
Round 6: Tim Hudson, regular
Round 8: Adam Piatt, cup of coffee
Summary: The 1997 draft was moderately successful. The A’s landed an all-star and not much else despite four first round picks
1998 draft
Round 1: Mark Mulder, 2nd pick overall, regular
Round 2: Gerald Laird, part timer
Round 5: Jason Hart, cup of coffee
Round 8: Eric Byrnes, regular
Round 9: Jon Adkins, part timer
Round 13: Jeff Bajenaru, prospect
Round 23: Tyler Yates, prospect
Summary: The 1998 draft was very successful, an all-star plus another regular. Here is another example of the benefit of a very high draft slot.
1999 draft
Round 1: Barry Zito, 9th pick overall, regular
Round 2: Ryan Ludwick, still a prospect, barely
Round 8: Justin Lehr, cup of coffee
Summary: Another average to moderately successful draft, based mainly on one player
2000 draft
Round 17: Rich Harden
Summary: An average draft
2001 draft, the last pre-Moneyball draft (The A’s had three 1st round picks)
Round 1: Bobby Crosby, a regular
Round 1: Jeremy Bonderman, a regular
Round 2: Neil Cotts, part timer
Round 7: Dan Johnson, prospect
Round 10: Mike Wood, a prospect
Summary: A very successful draft, at least two major league regulars, maybe more, although again, the A’s had three first round picks
2002 draft, the Moneyball draft (The A’s had four 1st round picks)
Round 1: Nick Swisher, A’s #6 prospect
Round 1: Joe Blanton, A’s #2 Prospect
Round 1: Mark Teahen, Royals prospect
Round 4: John Baker, prospect
Summary: Another very successful draft, although the A’s did have four first round picks.
2003 draft The A’s had three 1st round picks
It is hard to evaluate the A’s 2003 draft, only a couple of players have made it to AA, the best known would be Omar Quintanilla who is a prospect and should play in the majors, although his role is being questioned by BA. The top pick was Brad Sullivan, a pitcher who has done OK in A ball. When I read the BA top 20 prospects by league the A’s do not fare well, it could be that the A’s do not select “toolsy” players, or it could be that the A’s drafts were not great. At AA Mark Teahen was the only A’s type player selected, at High A, Omar Quintanilla was the only one. There might be other guys but I will stick with the above and give Oakland two prospects for the 2003 class.
BA’s top ten Oakland prospects has three international free agents, three 2004 draftees, plus Swisher, Blanton, Johnson and Quintanilla.
To summarize, here is a chart of the last seven drafts:
Regular Part time Cup Coffee Prospect
1997 1 2 2
1998 2 2 1 2
1999 1 0 1 1
2000 1 0 0 0
2001 2 1 0 2
2002 2 0 0 2
2003 0 0 0 2
The Oakland A’s had draft success more in quality than quantity. Nine regulars over seven years, considering how many first round picks Oakland have had, is an average performance. But with Hudson, Mulder and Zito they selected an all-star three straight years. Overall I would rank the three teams I have studied, in terms of draft success, as A’s, the Blue Jays and the Twins.
Where Next?
I still felt that I had some unanswered questions, how were Minnesota so good if their drafts have not been? Where did their homegrown talent come from?
Minnesota Twins home grown talent
Brad Radke 1991 8th round from HS
Torii Hunter 1993 1st round from HS
AJ Pierzynski 1994 3rd round from HS
Corey Koskie 1994 26th round from JC
Christian Guzman 1994 UFA
Doug Mienkiewitz 1995 5th round from College
Luis Rivas 1995 UFA
Jacque Jones 1996 2nd round from College
In the 1993 to 1996 period the Twins drafted and/or signed seven useful players, three more than would be expected. Five of the useful players were drafted while two were undrafted free agents. By expanding their pool of talent into the Caribbean, and having a couple of hits there, the Twins were able to take their hit rate on the draft and expand it into a roster worth of players. Also note that the picks from 1991 to 1994 were high school players who developed around the same time as the college players selected in 1995 and 1996.
So to answer my question regarding how the Twins developed their team, the Twins have been successful, in part, due to the drafts of 1993 to 1996. These four drafts were slightly above average, but the Twins also sourced players elsewhere. The selection of Johan Santana through the rule 5 draft was a big part of their success and the two undrafted free agents turned five good draft picks into eight major league regulars.
The Twins have the reputation of having a strong player development system, built around high school players. That was somewhat true in the mid nineties, but, from 1998 to 2003 the draft has not been as kind to the Twins. That mid-nineties core of talent has driven the Twins success over the last few years. From 1997 to 2001 the Twins look like they have developed only two everyday players and one of them was the first overall pick, so unless the Twins success rates pick up, they could be heading for some lean times ahead.
This also brings us back to the comment I made about general manager evaluation and players reaching the major leagues. Like it or not general managers get credit for the players who make it on their watch, so JP Ricciardi gets credit for Brandon League and Gabe Gross, etc. Terry Ryan gets credit for the successful drafts in the mid nineties, but I have not heard criticisms of his recent drafts.
Oakland A’s
Lets look at some of the players drafted by the A’s since 1996.
1996 Eric Chavez 1st round from HS
1997 Tim Hudson 6th round from college
1998 Mark Mulder 1st round from college
1999 Barry Zito 1st round from college
2000 Rich Harden 17th round from JC
2001 Bobby Crosby 1st round from college
2002 Nick Swisher and Joe Blanton
The first four are all-stars, the next two could fall into the same category, and who knows about Swisher and Blanton? That is a very successful result from the draft, at least six quality players in consecutive years. How rare is this record? The odds of getting an all-star in a draft are around 40%. The odds of getting six straight are 4/10 to the power of six, or a thousand to one shot. Did the A’s hit that thousand to one shot because of luck, or because of a strong scouting and player development system? This subject could be debated at length, and has been, without reaching a conclusion. This is the core of the anti-Moneyball argument, that this group of players are a statistical anomaly and not evidence of skill in the front office. A’s supporters claim that Oakland have developed a system of drafting top prospects that will continue into the future.
Also note that Eric Chavez was a high school selection, when he made it to the major leagues the college players were there or coming at the same time, so again many players arriving in the big leagues at the same time lets them develop and learn together.
Summary
So to summarize, the Twins had good results from the draft, and international signings, in 1993 to 1996 and that has provided the core of players for their recent success. Oakland has not developed a huge number of players, considering their large number of first round picks, but the ones they have developed have become top quality players and that has driven their success. The unanswered question for me is: Is a teams draft success a result of good drafting, or is it luck? Generally, before the draft, there is a consensus regarding 20 to 25 of the first 30 players to be drafted. If I pick John Smith at pick #10 and someone else picks Jake Jones at pick #11; and Smith is a stiff, and Jones is an all-star, am I dumb or am I unlucky? If I had not taken Smith with pick #10 then someone else would have taken him from pick #11 through #20, so are we both dumb?
What About Another Team?
I decided to look at another team, the Cleveland Indians who had a strong 2004 with a strong group of young players.
1997 draft
Round 1: Tim Drew, a part-timer
Round 9: Dustan Mohr, another part-timer
Summary: Not a successful draft, no regular
1998 draft
Round 1: CC Sabathia, an all-star
Round 2: Zach Sorenson, a cup of coffee
Round 5: Ryan Drese, regular
Round 15: Matt White, cup of coffee
Summary: The 1998 draft was excellent, Sabathia and Drese make it above average
1999 draft
Round 6: Andrew Brown, a prospect
Round 10: Fernando Cabrera, a prospect
Round 21: Jason Davis, a prospect
Summary: A below average draft for the Indians
2000 draft
Round 1: Corey Smith, a prospect, but only barely
Round 2: Brian Tallet, cup of coffee
Round 14: Ryan Church, prospect with Montreal
Round 41: Eric Crozier, a prospect with Toronto
Summary: A below average draft
2001 draft
Summary: The worst draft in this study, no-one made it, and no-one is listed as a prospect
2002 draft
Round 1: Jeremy Guthrie, a prospect
Round 25: Nick Pesco, a prospect
Summary: Two prospects although neither are highly regarded. This could be an OK draft but it also might be unsuccesful
2003 draft
Round 1: Michael Aubrey; Brad Snyder; and Adam Miller, all prospects
Round 3: Ryan Garko, a prospect
Round 6: Kevin Kouzmanoff, a prospect
Summary: These guys look like a strong group, Miller is one of the top pitching prospects in all baseball.
To summarize, here is a chart of the last seven drafts:
Regular Part time Cup Coffee Prospect
1997 0 2
1998 2 0 2
1999 0 0 0 3
2000 0 0 1 3
2001 0 0 0 0
2002 0 0 0 2
2003 0 0 0 5
From 1997 until 2002 the Indians have produced only two regular players, Sabathia and Drese. Many of the players on their 2004 team were obtained by trades or signed as undrafted free agents. The major league Indians had a very good year in 2004 and Mark Shapiro received the usual accolades, but most of the young players on the roster were acquired by trade and were not fully developed home grown players. Cliff Lee, Travis Hafner, Grady Sizemore, Brandon Phillips, Ben Broussard and Coco Crisp were acquired via trade; Victor Martinez was an undrafted free agent.
What does this mean for the Jays?
The average success level for a draft is one major league regular
If you are using the draft to restock your team you need to develop some all-stars along with the regulars
The last few Blue Jay drafts appear to be above average
In the short term the major league Jays are well positioned with a mix of high school (Ash) and college (Ricciardi) draftees all arriving at approximately the same time
Although the Jays system is deep it remains to be seen how many more major leaguers will be developed from the college heavy drafts
It will be tough to emulate Oakland’s success in the draft, they were either very smart or very lucky
It looks like it is better to be lucky than good
Success in international scouting can double your number of prospects if you can replicate your domestic success with international players
What did Gerry Learn? What is still left unanswered?
In evaluating general managers their success in the draft does not appear to be that important. Terry Ryan and Mark Shapiro have good reputations as general managers despite poor draft histories. Does this imply that trading and signing major league players is more important than success in the draft? Or perhaps your reputation is simply due to the bottom line, win games and you have a good reputation, lose and you are a bum.
Success in the draft in often a sign that the major league club will be successful in a few years, once the young players have a couple of years of major league experience
Oakland’s success in the draft looks unrepeatable, I think they were lucky with the quality of players selected. I calculated the odds at 1000 to 1, probably higher as their picks were pitchers.
Drafts can be evaluated quickly, we already have narrowed down the prospects from the Jays 2002 and 2003 drafts to 3 and 5 respectively.
The Jays do have some undrafted international free agents about to help them at the major league level, Guillermo Quiroz and Gustavo Chacin. Are the 2005 Jays still investing enough internationally to develop similar players?
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