John Sickels 2005 Baseball Prospect Book is now shipping. In addition to the book, some of you might be familiar with John's work from his Down on the Farm columns for espn.com. The book includes scouting reports and grades for hundreds of minor leaguers including, for 2005, 36 Blue Jay prospects. Any fan interested in minor leagues and prospects should invest in a copy of John's book.
John stepped into DaBox last year and has agreed to provide some insight into his prospect reports again this year. As always John would like you to buy the book which you can do here. John's assignment with espn.com has now concluded so look for a new John Sickels minor league blog coming shortly.
BB You previously stated that the only change in the book this year was to combine the first year players into the main section. Is this still true? You changed the font last year to make it more readable, any such non-content changes this year?
JS Yes, that is right, there no major content changes. The biggest change is folding the first-round picks into the regular part of the book, which is something readers have been asking for, for several years.
BB Did you make any change to your methodology this year; are any stats becoming more or less important in your evaluations?
JS It is an evolving process. I pay more attention to K/IP than I did four or five years ago, and I pay more attention to the ratio of home runs and extra-base hits to regular hits and innings. I didn’t use to consider home run rates very often, but I do now.
BB Baseball is in the middle of a stats based versus scouting debate. You state you use both approaches in your evaluations. Do you consider yourself to be in the middle, or do you lean more to one side than the other?
JS I lean more to the statistical side. If “pure stats” was a 1 and “pure scouting” was a 10 on a 1-10 scale, I’d probably be about a 4. Baseball Prospectus would probably be a 2.5, while Baseball America would probably be about a 6. Ten years ago, Baseball America would have been something like a 9.
BB Although you do not rank organizations, do you have an opinion regarding the strength of the Blue Jays minor league system/prospects?
JS It looks pretty strong to me. The last two drafts have been quite good, adding significant system depth with all the college guys. That, plus the development of some more traditional “tools” guys like Alexis Rios and Brandon League brought in by the previous administration, has boosted the system in my view. I’d rate the Jays above average in farm system strength at this point.
BBHow many Blue Jay players did you rank this year?
JS 36
BB In the 2004 book you highlighted Jamie Vermilyea with the **sleeper alert** tag. His performance in 2004 must have made you happy to have issued that alert. Are you more bullish on Vermilyea this year and do you think his "stuff" will make him successful in the major leagues.
JS I gave him a Grade B in 2004 and downgraded that a notch to Grade B- in 2005. But I actually like him about the same…I just decided that the original grade was too aggressive. I think he could end up being a very effective middle reliever or maybe even a fifth starter, but his margin for error will be small.
BB In 2004 the Jays saw a number of previously unranked players have very good seasons: Chacin; Tablado; Davenport; and Cota. How many of them are in the 2005 book and which one are you must optimistic for and why?
JS Chacin, Tablado, and Davenport are all in. I can’t say I’m super-optimistic about any of them. The highest grade is Chacin at C+, but I must admit to having some doubts about him as well; he has a below average strikeout rate. It worries me....I think his margin for error is thinner than his other numbers indicate. All these guys are prospects, but beware of overhype at this stage.
BB (If Gabe Gross is still rated in the book) Gross spent some time in the major leagues in 2004 and struggled somewhat. Many players struggle on their first expsoure to major league pitching, do his struggles cause you to re-evaluate your rating?
JS Gross is still in the book, at Grade B-. I still like him, but his struggles do drop his grade a notch. I no longer think he will be a star, but a few adjustments would make him a productive regular, say in a Trot Nixon-like way. But he has to make the adjustments.
BB Eric Crozier was a low draft choice and was not in your 2004 book, but had a very good year in AAA in 2004. Is he in the 2005 book and does he have a chance to succeed in the major leagues?
JS He’s in the book, as a Grade C, due to his erratic track record and age. He could end up being a Paul Sorrento-like slugger, if you remember him, someone who can hit .250-.270 with 20 homers if you give him enough at-bats.
BB Shawn Marcum has had good numbers in the David Bush/Josh Banks tradition. Do you give him a high rating?
JS I gave him a B-. His command and control are outstanding, but his H/IP mark at Dunedin was below average, and we need to see how that translates to Double-A before going too far with his grade. I saw him pitch in college, and I think he may be better off in relief in the long run.
BB David Purcey played in less than a handful of games in 2004. Did you get any insight into him, or are you relying on pre-draft reports?
JS I gave him a B+, based mostly on what I saw him do for the University of Oklahoma. I really like his stuff, and if he maintains his command he will advance very quickly. I like him a little better than Zach Jackson at this point, but both should be good if they avoid injuries.
BB What does the post ESPN world have for you? Will you show up on another website?
JS I’m still doing my newsletter, and I will start a blog called “minorleagueball.com”. That will be operational in about two weeks. Also check johnsickels.com for updates about what I’m doing. ESPN dropped my column, but I will still be around! And there's always the book of course.
BB Finally you have a new system for delivering Canadian orders this year. I received my book in good time last year but it looks like you had some problems with the Canadian post office. Did you ever figure out what the problem was? I assume this year you are shipping books in bulk to Barry Fader this year and he is then shipping them out. Is this correct?
JS Last year, we had some customers who didn’t get their Canadian books for EIGHT WEEKS after they were mailed from here in Kansas. That was unacceptable, but there wasn't much we could do about it....it was a matter of getting the books through customs. We’re trying a distributor this year to see if we can improve that performance.
Once again, a big thanks to John for taking the time to answer our questions.
https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20050204093934999