2004 Blue Jays Final Grades - Pitchers
Wednesday, November 03 2004 @ 07:30 AM EST
Contributed by: Jonny German
2004 was a forgettable year for the Toronto Blue Jays and their fans, as the club floundered its way to 94 losses and the AL East cellar, a locale not visited by this club since 1997. With it all said and done, who were the culprits responsible for the mess? Who on the club turned in an individual performance not deserving of a Last Place label? The Batter’s Box roster has handed out grades for all of the good, the bad, and the ugly 2004 Jays, and over the next 3 days we’ll present these assessments.
Before we get started with our look at the pitching staff, a big shout out to Mike D for being the catalyst that made this report happen.
Terry Adams: C-
(GPA 1.55, High B, Low F)
Dave: When I look back, I realize that I have no memory at all of Adams or how he pitched here. Perhaps this is a case of self-protective amnesia. He changed his pitching pattern when he went to Boston: he started throwing more strikes, and the batters started hitting them harder.
Jonny: For his career, Adams has a 4.04 ERA and as a Blue Jay he was at 3.98. But don’t follow me down that line of thinking to conclude off the cuff that he actually lived up to expectations in Toronto, a few disasters aside: inherited runners scored at a 52% clip off him, compared to his career 31% rate.
Jordan: Maybe I'm judging him too harshly, but that grand slam by Matthew LeCroy was the stake in the season's heart. Turning him into John Hattig was JP's 2004 high-water mark.
Miguel Batista: C
(GPA 2.02, High B, Low D+)
Gerry: Would the real Miguel please stand up? Inconsistency was his reputation before he signed with the Jays and he came through as advertised.
Mick: Disclaimer: Gotta be honest here -- as a Yankee fan living in Texas, I realize a number of you already think "What the *&^%$ are you doing on this site, anyway?" (Cabal, this means you.) Anyway, given that, except for the few games against the Rangers that were on Fox Sports Southwest, virtually my entire exposure to the Blue Jays this year has been through reading Batter's Box ... I have to conclude that my grades are truly a reflection of the community's (Peña's) dicussion rather than anything as spurious and unreliable as actual observation.
Batista is probably a little overpaid, but like some others here, I discounted salary entirely from the grade. He is the only Jay to be an Andujar semi-finalist, and as we noted on the semi-final list of candidates, "The much-maligned 'El Artista' was supposed to be the club's #2 starter -- and in fact, finished second on the team in wins at 10-13 -- but ended up the season auditioning for a new role as closer, where he saved all [five] games he was charged with protecting." Look, my favored team was relying on Tanyon Sturtze and traded for Esteban Loiaza, while the local nine was running out Scott Erickson, Chan Ho Park and John Wasdin as starters this year. Batista looked mighty fine from this vantage point.
David Bush: B+
(GPA 3.42, High A, Low B-)
Pistol: Called up at the beginning of July Bush was usually solid, and at times spectacular. I thought he was tiring down the stretch but he ended up throwing a gem against the Yanks in his last start (granted it was the Yankees B team).
Interestingly, to me at least, Bush had the same number of groundballs as flyballs (127 each) this season.
Mike Green: I like Dave Bush a lot. He gave the Jays 97 good but not great innings. His grade would have been higher had he pitched a full season at this level of performance.
Gerry: David Bush will be interesting to follow, he is reportedly very intelligent. He does not have one outstanding pitch but he mixes his pitches well, will he develop like a Greg Maddux, or will he be just an average pitcher?
Vinnie Chulk: C+
(GPA 2.44, High B, Low D+)
Thomas: Overall it was a moderately successful year for Vinnie. He pitched very well before the all-star break and quite poorly afterwards. In comparable innings totals Chulk allowed 1 home run and a .202 opponent's batting average before the break, and 5 home runs with a .318 opponent's batting average afterwards. The first number
was never sustainable, and hopefully the latter is due partly to bad luck. Chulk still has a big question mark going forwards.
Mike D: Look, this guy will be pitching in the majors next year, and that's an accomplishment. He was absolutely lights-out in June, particularly in late June (when he was getting the job done as eighth-inning guy). He slumped badly in August, but was less of a liability in September.
I think if he's used properly, he can be an effective setup man. I think he needs another pitch to use against lefthanded hitting (maybe a cut fastball?), and he obviously needs to improve his command. But he ought to get another chance in '05. He's tough on righties and still young enough to improve.
Dave: When all the highs and lows are averaged out, Vinnie became what his previous numbers indicated he'd be: a replacement-level relief pitcher. He's not good enough to play a vital role in a bullpen, but he's better than most of the discards and suspects that have been given brief auditions over the last two years.
Valerio de los Santos: E
(GPA 0.47, High D, Low F)
Spicol: Yeah, I flunked VDSL. It's all relative, you see. There are no easy jobs in baseball, but surely one of the easiest is that of the LOOGY. And if a guy can't even make it as a LOOGY, that's the epitome of failure. I suppose one could make a case that we need be easy on Valerio since he was hurt. Tell that to my 4th grade teacher, Mrs. Wilder, who held Tommy Martin back after missing two months of school despite his mother's note about his mono..
Jonny: I graded Valerio "Incomplete", because really, what can you tell from 12 innings pitched? Look for him to follow the Trever Miller path out of town. Hopefully the next Toronto LOOGY will come up heads.
Bob File: C-
(GPA 1.58, High B, Low D-)
Jordan: Opponents hit a team-high .331 off him, but 14 of his 18 earned runs came in just 6 of his 24 appearances. His final line looks worse than it was, but it still wasn't great.
Dave: As a general rule, if a pitcher doesn't strike out at least one man every other inning, he doesn't have enough stuff to pitch at the major-league level. It's like going to war with a starter's pistol when your opponents are deploying cannons. File managed to pitch better than the rest of the motley crew on the Syracuse-to-Toronto shuttle, but 15 strikeouts in 33 2/3 innings is not good enough.
Jason Frasor: B
(GPA 3.13, High A, Low B-)
Mick: I gave Jason Frasor an A? Wow. Okay, well, if it's true as Thomas writes that where Frasor's concerned, there's "not much discrepancy here between the average and the low," it's also true there's not much difference between the high and the low, either. Say, did you realize that Frasor's seven Win Shares in 2004 were just one less than David Bush's eight, and that other than those two, only the projected front three of Halladay, Batista and Lilly (with 10, 11 and 16, respectively) had more among Toronto hurlers? Jayson Werth is gone, people! Quit bemoaning his loss and glory in the dominance that is Jason Frasor! And after all, according to the USA TODAY 2004 MLB Salary Database, Frasor didn't earn ANY money this past season, making his Win Shares per $100K (an Andujar stat developed on Da Box last season) a cool infinity.
Thomas: Not much discrepancy here between the average and the low. However, Frasor's walk rate concerned me, especially for an acting closer. Frasor's post-ASB stats had a noticeable dropoff as well, and his opponent's batting average made a jump of 105 points. He'll have to make some adjustments coming into next year and he's not going to be an ace reliever, but he should be a solid component of the bullpen. Note to Gibbons: Only pitch him at night.
Kevin Frederick: D+
(GPA 1.22, High B-, Low F)
Mike D: If there ever was a golden opportunity for a 27-year-old longshot to make a name for himself in the big leagues, it was the bullpen of the 2004 Blue Jays. Quite simply, Frederick failed to take advantage of that chance. He walked far too many batters and allowed hits in bunches, allowing the Dreaded Big Inning far too often -- he surrendered runs in 10 of his 22 appearances, each of which in a short relief role. He was also an integral part of that horrible August collapse against the Orioles, one of the games that best encapsulated the frustration of the '04 Jays.
Robert: Rick Adair marvelled at Frederick when the Box was in Erie early in the season, wondering why he wasn't in AAA or the majors. He could still have a journeyman's career as a reliever, but it's a big jump from succeeding in AAA and surviving in the majors and some pitchers never make it.
Lucas: Threw lights-out for Syracuse and New Hampshire. BB/K rate plummeted upon call-up. Nine of his 21 runs were allowed in two mop-up appearances, so maybe an “F” is too severe.
Roy Halladay: C+
(GPA 2.30, High B, Low D+)
Thomas: His results weren't that good, but they weren't awful either. Add in pretty large considerations about his injury and the pressures placed on him as being staff ace and I'm willing to be pretty forgiving. If he's healthy there's no reason he shouldn't pick up where 2003 left off.
Lucas: I suppose his grade depends on how much his injury is held against him. Cold-hearted me went purely on expectations. Averaged 250 innings with a 3.10 ERA the last two years, dropped to 133 innings and a 4.20 ERA in 2004.
Pat Hentgen: E
(GPA 0.46, High D, Low F)
Gerry: Pat Hentgen disappointed himself, and Blue Jay fans everywhere, with his 2004 performance. We still don't know how he put up good numbers in the second half of 2003.
Pistol: The success on the mound wasn't there, but it wasn't for a lack of effort. Hentgen left at mid-season knowing that he didn't have anything left in the tank. There's something admirable about that.
Jonny: As painful as it is for a Blue Jay fan to admit, Pat Hentgen was a full-measure failure this year, showing no trace of his mid-90s form. Thanks for the memories, Pat!
Moffatt: People who believe in DIPS thought that Hentgen's post All-Star numbers last year were done by smoke and mirrors. Those people were right.
Jason Kershner: D-
(GPA 0.87, High C, Low F)
Spicol: Four times in Jason's short stint with the Big Jays this season, he entered a game, allowed a man or two to reach base and was yanked by a pull-happy Tosca without getting an out. On all four occasions, the subsequent reliever allowed one or more of Jason's baserunners to score. I ask you, was Kershner's poor performance (6.04 ERA despite a decent k-rate and walk rate) due to the way he pitched or the way he was used and ultimately "supported" by his teammates? Considering he continued to pitch poorly in Syracuse over the rest of the season, maybe it was a bit of both.
Kerry Ligtenberg: D-
(GPA 0.76, High C, Low F)
Lucas: Is it possible to rate Ligtenberg anything but an "F?" It is. His rates of homers allowed, walks and strikeouts were actually very close to career averages. Unfortunately, everything hit into the field of play became a hit. Prior to 2003, he'd allowed a .269 average on balls in play; in 2004, that average skyrocketed to .382. He'll be better in '05.
Gerry: Kerry Ligtenberg did have some good performances, some days he was just horrible. A half dozen terrible outings cannot completely mask the good ones and a D- is too low.
Mike D: F, F, a thousand times F!
Looking over the season's boxscores, Kerry played an integral role in TEN -- count 'em, ten -- losses, usually by frittering away leads or tie scores, or by allowing slim deficits to balloon way out of hand on his watch. His awful ERA didn't even tell the whole story of his badness, as an astonishing 17 of his 29 inherited runners came home to score. Certainly, he could have added to his Resume Of Doom had the Jays not kept him 300 yards from pressure situations from about mid-August on, as evidenced by his ugly meltdown against the Yankees in the Menechino Game.
I supported this signing, as he had a very good track record, health excepted, over the course of his career. I don't know if it's because he got way out of shape, pitched hurt, or simply lost confidence, but he severely underperformed this season, especially in high-leverage situations. I'd reluctantly be willing to give him another chance next year, but he's got to rededicate himself to conditioning.
Ted Lilly: A-
(GPA 3.72, High A+, Low B)
Robert: I love the way he pitches. Three plus pitches (fastball, change, curve) give him the weapons to succeed for a long time. When he has command of the curve he's going to pitch a good game. Probably a little too aggressive against the opposition's best hitter with men on base.
Mike Green: Lilly's performance, as measured by the three true outcomes (walks, homers and strikeouts) and the two indicators (line drive rate and popup rate) was fair. He's a flyball pitcher, who benefited from the superior defence of Wells and Rios. 197 innings of fair performance is a B in my book.
Moffatt: I was possibly the only person on the Box who thought that Lilly for Kielty was a bad idea. I'm really glad that J.P. agreed with the majority position and made this move.
Aquilino Lopez: F
(GPA 0.21, High D, Low F)
Mike Green: What is there to say? He pitched very poorly in 04 after a promising 03, was sent down to Syracuse where he continued to pitch badly and was released by the organization.
Spicol: Looks like I was more generous to Aquilino than most of the Roster. Clearly, April was a disaster (11 runs, 4 HR and 19 baserunners allowed in 8.2 IP) but he wasn't bad throughout May and June (3 ER in 12.1 IP). Who knows what happened in Syracuse but the electricity he showed in '03 just wasn't there this year. He might be hiding an injury.
Moffatt: What happened to this guy? He's a cautionary tale to those putting to those who want to appoint Jason Frasor the closer for life.
Justin Miller: D+
(GPA 1.49, High B-, Low F)
Thomas: He didn't flunk this year but he came pretty close. When he's on Miller has really nasty stuff, but he needs to strike out more batters if is he going to compensate for his lack of control. A 1.12 K./BB ratio with a K/9 ratio of under 5.50 won't cut it unless you're Kirk Reuter. His window of opportunity to stake a claim in the future rotation of this club is closing rapidly. He'll likely get a shot in the pen in 2005, and he has to impress there.
Robert: Not the same pitcher after his leg injury this year. It could be that he was too rusty to have proper command of his pitches after coming back. He's always struggled with location and he doesn't have the same movement he had pre-injury. He might come back next year and be a decent pitcher, but I doubt it will be as a Blue Jay.
Dave: 95% of the time, he seems to have no idea what he's doing out there. The other 5%, he's a dominant major league starting pitcher. He reminds me of Robert Person: lots of potential, not so much on the actual. And, even if he does manage to put it all together, he's likely to get hurt. I don't expect anything from him.
Micheal Nakamura: D
(GPA 0.93, High C, Low F)
Pistol: Nakamura was effective for his first month with the team and then the wheels came off. He was worth taking a look at, and was essentially free, but it doesn't look like he has a future in Toronto at this point.
Jordan: Yes, it was only 25 innings, but a 7.36 ERA? Seven homers allowed? Nakamura is the exception to the rule about BB/K peripherals being positive indicators. Not a big-league pitcher.
Justin Speier: B
(GPA 3.03, High A-, Low C)
Gerry: Justin Speier did pitch better at the end of the year but he had 8 losses. He was not "B" worthy. Speier had 8 losses in 62 games, Jason Frasor had 4 losses in 63 games, Ligtenberg, who was ranked far lower, had six losses in 57 games..
Mike Green: Speier's performance mirrored Lilly's, although over many fewer innings. He's an extreme fly-ball pitcher, who benefited from the strong outfield defence. His walk, HR and K rates were all a little less than Ted's. He's a serviceable reliever. Ideally, he wouldn't be the ace among the relief corps, but 2004 was not a year to be worrying about the ideal.
Josh Towers: B-
(GPA 2.59, High A-, Low C)
Craig: Josh Towers makes as much out of what he has as any pitcher in baseball, leaves everything on the field, tells it like it is, and never backs down. I love him for it, and though he remains a #5 starter he deserves a shot with a team that won't screw around with him - hopefully the Blue Jays. Extremely limited upside, though.
Mick: Josh "Fawlty" Towers. Sure, he was 9-9 in his 21 starts. Better record than Batista? Uh, no. I have just one stat to back that up. Batters hit .273 against Batista, while they managed to his *.310* against Towers. Competing against himself rather than El Artista, how about this ... coming into 2004, Towers had a career K/BB of 113/28 (4.03:1). This past season it was 51/26 (1.96:1). Make that Josh "Afwul" Towers -- a reach for the Paris pun, but I'm looking for a closing line here and that was it.
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