The Future As Of Now: Your 2005 Toronto Blue Jays

Monday, October 04 2004 @ 12:13 PM EDT

Periodically throughout the offseason, I'll be posting snapshots of how next years team is shaping up. This will include the likely 25-man roster if the season started today, and discussion of payroll, recent changes(trades, free agent signings), and specific positions of weakness or potential change.

So, on this the first day of the Blue Jay 2004 offseason, the following table shows where they currently sit for 2005. That is, the best roster Toronto can field if they do nothing this off-season. The table does not include potential free agents (but does include players who are otherwise arbitration-eligible). 2005 salaries are my own estimates except in the cases of guaranteed contracts, which are indicated by bold type.

Pos	Player	T/B	2004$	2005$
SP1	Roy Halladay	R	6.000	10.500
SP2	Ted Lilly	L	1.900	3.100
SP3	Miguel Batista	R	3.600	4.750
SP4	David Bush	R	.300	.310
SP5	Josh Towers	R	.340	.400
Closer	Justin Speier	R	1.600	2.000
Setup	Jason Frasor	R	.300	.315
Mid	Kerry Ligtenberg	R	2.000	2.500
Mid	Vinny Chulk	R	.300	.310
Long	Brandon League	R	.300	.300
Swing	Justin Miller	R	.300	.320
LOOGY	Gustavo Chacin	L	.300	.300
C	Guillermo Quiroz	R	.300	.300
1B	Eric Crozier	L	.300	.300
2B	Orlando Hudson	S	.322	.400
SS	Russ Adams	L	.300	.300
3B	Eric Hinske	L	.800	3.000
LF	Gabe Gross	L	.300	.305
CF	Vernon Wells	R	.700	2.900
RF	Alexis Rios	R	.300	.320
DH	Frank Catalanotto	L	2.300	2.700
OF	Reed Johnson	R	.318	.340
UT	Frank Menechino	R	.400	.750
UT	Chris Woodward	R	.775	.800
C	Kevin Cash	R	.302	.310
Total Payroll				37.765

While that’s a team that would have trouble staying afloat in the AL Central, let alone the AL East, take heart in the “Total payroll” line: to the best of our knowledge the 2005 budget is between 50 and 53 million, or 12 to 15 million above and beyond what is projected above. What positions should be addressed with that spare change? Here’s my list:

1) First Baseman
2) Relief Pitching (2 arms required)
3) DH / Left fielder
4) Catcher
5) Backup Shortstop
6) Starting pitcher

As you may have heard, a certain slugger named Carlos Delgado, otherwise known as The Greatest Blue Jay Of Them All, is eligible for free agency. While the scenario involving Delgado remaining in Toronto has not been completely ruled out, the chances of it are slim. Real slim. Alex Rios slim.

So how does the team go about addressing these needs? Well, they always told us in school to start an exam with the easiest questions, so let’s do just that.

Catcher

Guillermo Quiroz is the future of catching in Toronto, a Grade-A prospect who figures to backstop this team to its next championship. But his time is not now. While he showed flashes of his potential as a September call-up, GQ could really use some more Triple-A Seasoning. It seems eminently sensible to re-sign potential free agent Gregg Zaun, one of the few bright spots of the 2004 season and a solid citizen even if he does drive a Trans Am. Zaun can be the heavy end of a platoon with Quiroz, Kevin Cash, or a bargin-bin free agent for the first half of 2005, then make way for The Future in the second half. Figure Triple-G at 1 million dollars and his evil twin close to the minimum.

Backup Shortstop

Another ray of hope in a dismal season was the impressive performance of Russ Adams in the final month. Tiny sample size or no, Russ silenced most of his doubters by batting .306/.359/.528 in 72 at-bats, and will head to Dunedin next spring penciled in as the starting shortstop. His ideal backup is a lefty-masher who plays solid defence. The incumbent Chris Gomez is eligible for free agency. Thor played lefties to the tune of .296/.395/.378 in 96 AB this year and drew neither raves nor reproof for his D, but over his career the melody has been a less harmonious .265/.345/.363. With no obvious upgrades available on the market, re-signing Gomez is a reasonable option. Regardless, this roster spot shouldn’t cost more than $1 million.

Now that I’ve addressed the two easiest points, I’m going to hedge on the larger questions. Namely, 2 bats, 2 relievers, and a starting pitcher. I see these as inter-related: with approximately $14 million to spend, they aren’t all going to be filled by superstars. Quick considerations:

1st base: There really isn’t anyone currently in the system who can be written in here and expected to perform at an above-average level, let alone a Carlos Delgado level. This spot will require a good chunk of the available spending cash.

DH / Left field: I’m very much in favour of Frank Catalanotto as the primary DH in the interest of preserving his health, and I would let Eric Crozier and Gabe Gross duel it out for the right to platoon with Reed Johnson in left. This means the requirement is simply a lefty mashing DH, and this should not cost much.

Starting Pitcher: I don’t buy Miguel Batista as closer as I feel he can be far more valuable to the team as a starter. But, while the 5th starter options are numerous (Josh Towers, Gus Chacin, Justin Miller, Sean Douglass), I’m in favour of looking for an upgrade here. Roy Halladay figures to contribute much much more in 2005 than he did in 2004, but Ted Lilly is a candidate to regress from a career season, Miguel Batista is somewhat of a wild card, and Dave Bush is a young pitcher. Young pitchers will break your heart. Believe it. Signing a capable starter in the $3M range will ease the pressure on the rest of the staff, both starters and relievers. Further, the better this team can pitch the ball, the less it will miss Delgado’s bat.

Relievers: The task here is obvious: bring in a reliable closer and a legitimate LOOGY. The path is not so obvious, as both are scarce (and generally overpriced) commodities. I still believe in-house option Justin Speier can handle the closing duties, and Brandon League’s potential is enormous. While I’ve listed Gustavo Chacin as the only lefty reliever in the table above, his value is higher as a starter and his stats this year indicate he’s no LOOGY. As distasteful as it may sound given the bullpen failures of the past two years, J.P. may have to once again hunt in the bargain bin for a lefty neutralizer.

Subject to availability of appropriate players, here's how I would divvy up the available funds amongst the five roster spots to be filled:

$1M: Lefty-mashing DH who can back up at 1st
$6M: 1st baseman
$3M: Starting pitcher
$4M: Two relievers

Besides looking to sign free agents, I would actively shop Josh Towers, and I would not be shy about trading Gus Chacin if his value is high based on his impressive season. If there’s a team out there interested in Kerry Ligtenberg, I’d gift-wrap him in a C-prospect and ship him out UPS Red.

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