Advance Scout: Yankees, September 20-22

Monday, September 20 2004 @ 04:53 AM EDT

Contributed by: Mike D

The Jays pay their last visit to the Bronx this week, and should bring a stiff challenge to a Yankees club playing great baseball, but possibly a tad hungover from their rousing series win against their hated Boston rivals.

Above all, it's the pitching matchups that make this series compelling. Tonight, fresh after sipping some Eastern League championship champagne, Gustavo Chacin gets the ball against an obviously power-packed Yankee lineup, but one that will be missing Gary Sheffield (see the Scout for details.) Wednesday, Ted Lilly and Orlando Hernandez will reprise their masterful duel from late July. And tomorrow, in about as unambiguous of a "Good vs. Evil" matchup you'll ever see, the reigning Cy Young winner will return in a Blue Jays uniform, squaring off against none other than E-----n L----a in pinstripes.

This week's Scout features a sizzling left side of the New York infield, a record-breaking Canadian, and a slugger who not only is playing like a shell of his former self, but likely feeling like one, too.

On to the Advance Scout!

* Gary Sheffield said after yesterday's trouncing of Pedro and the Bosox that the Yanks "just feel like we're the best team in baseball." Sadly, he may well be right ... After that 22-0 pasting they took at the hands of the Tribe on the last day of August, the Yanks have rebounded with a 13-5 September -- including an 11-3 record in their last 14 ... Their second-place standing among all run-scoring teams in the bigs is fueled mainly by the longball. They've hit 225 to lead the league ... That said, they are a respectable second to Boston in team OBP and team SLG ... Only the Twins have issued fewer walks as a team this year, but remember -- the Yankees get calls ... It's a troubling statistic for Gustavo tonight; New York is 35-10 against lefthanded starters ...

* Tonight's starter will be Javy Vazquez, who won back some of his bosses' confidence by shutting down the Royals last Wednesday after some atrocious pitching in his previous starts (0-3, 9.99 in his five starts heading into Kansas City) ... Vazquez on his struggles: "I was trying to hit the corners too much, and I wasn't aggressive enough" ... On Wednesday, he went seven shutout innings, allowing three hits and four walks while striking out seven ... Vazquez: "Hopefully, I'll get on a roll now" ... Even with that stellar start, his post-break numbers still sit at 4-4, 7.04 ...

* Although his legions of bashers enjoyed the schadenfreude of witnessing Derek Jeter's atrocious April and meek May, he is absolutely white-hot at the plate right now and playing a solid shortstop of late, too ... He's hit in 12 of his last 13 games (.442) and is an outstanding .403/.468/.716 in September overall, with an outstanding 24 runs scored already this month ... Friday night's game snapped an 11-game run-scoring streak ... On Wednesday, he hit a surprisingly deep 423-foot home run over the Kauffman fountains in left centre. Torre planned to rib Reggie Jackson, who had been taunting Yankee hitters with boasts of hitting homers into the fountains ... Despite his slow start, he's just two homers shy of his career high (24) ... He's still not walking much. After he drew two free passes on Saturday, Torre quipped, "Two [Jeter] walks in one game...you think you hit the lottery" ... Derek Jeter's parents are in town, which unfortunately means plenty of YES Network face-time for those of us in the Big Apple ...

* A-Rod is also raking, having hit in eight of his last nine (.429), with twelve runs, 10 RBI, six walks, and three steals ... He's put up fine .338/.458/.574 numbers in September ... He'll be a challenge for our man Gustavo tonight, since he's hammered lefties at a .320/.431/.688 clip this season ... A-Rod has slugged a ridiculous .680 against Blue Jay pitching over his career, his highest mark against any club ...

* Setup man Tom Gordon has issued zero walks while striking out 11 over his last nine innings pitched overall ... With excellent command of his fastball, he's been tough against lefties (.177) and righties (.188) alike ... His hits have been up since the All-Star break, and his ERA since midsummer (3.13) is nearly a run and a half higher than his pre-break mark ...

* Bernie Williams has driven in 15 runs in his twelve games against the Jays this season ... The 36-year-old -- can you believe it? -- is on pace to have his lowest on-base percentage since 1993 and his lowest batting average since 1991 ... Bernie recently passed Bill Dickey to rank sixth all-time in games played as a Yankee ...

* The Sheffield On-Base Watch continues. His OBP sits at .400 exactly at the moment, as he endeavours to put up seven straight seasons of a .400 OBP or better ... He's taken very well to the South Bronx, despite battling a sore shoulder all season. His Yankee Stadium numbers are impressive, at .327/.435/.588 ... 1993 was the last year his strikeouts outnumbered his walks ... He took two cortisone shots in his shoulder after yesterday's game and he will sit out tonight's game. After yesterday's shots, Sheffield said he had "no feeling" in his left arm ... Torre was typically gushing after yesterday's win: "He's special and I'm glad we had an opportunity to have him here" ...

* Old friend Miguel Cairo has hit in in six of his last seven (.360) ... He's enjoyed home cooking this season, hitting .312/.368/.465 in the Bronx Zoo ... He's putting together a fine September, and has finally relegated Enrique Wilson out of a part-time starter's role. He's hit .368/.456/.526 this month, including season monthly highs of 13 runs and 10 RBI ...

* This season, switch-hitting Jorge Posada has hit better from the right side (.282/.399/.557) ... He's hitting just .232 in September, but he's still having quality at-bats and seeing a bunch of pitches ... He's clobbered Jays pitching to the tune of .357/.514/.750 this season ...

* Hideki Matsui has been ho-hum in September (.254/.346/.358), with only one home run ... Strangely, only 26 of his 82 walks have come at home ... He's been tough on righthanded pitching all season (.310/.401/.549) ...

* Kenny Lofton has been playing irregularly, but has hit in his last seven games (.375), with two steals ... He didn't endear himself to Mariano Rivera after getting a late break on a Johnny Damon bloop -- which became a game-winning single ... Rivera shouted at the centrefielder from the mound, but told reporters after the game that Lofton probably didn't have a play ... He's hit .343 in nine games against the Jays this season ...

* Tony Clark's been embodying the "come strong or don't come at all mantra" of late ... Since August 1, he's gone 9-for-43 (.209) with zero walks and 18 Ks. But of those nine hits, two have been singles, one has been a double, and six have been home runs, including three in the Menechino-On-The-Mound debacle ... Even though he's been primarily playing against lefties, the right side is his weaker side (.202/.250/.360) ...

* Tanyon Sturtze bounced back from a gasoline-on-the-fire outing to toss a gutsy 3 2/3 innings of shutout ball at the Red Sox on Friday night ... Improbably, he allowed only one hit and two walks while striking out five. He was in line for the win until the Bosox came from behind ... As Jays fans know, when he's off, he's off. Last Monday, just two outings removed from giving up seven in the 22-0 game, Sturtze gave up another seven runs in just two-thirds of an inning at Kansas City ...

* Mariano Rivera coughed up a 2-1 lead on Friday night and took the loss, ending his streak of converting fourteen consecutive save opportunities ... Rivera owned up to his responsibility: "If I made my pitches, I wouldn't have had a problem...I blew it" ... With only four saves this month, he's stuck on 49 and it now appears that Bobby Thigpen, improbably, will hang on to his record for at least another year ... The Panamanian's cutter was once so feared that it prompted switch-hitters to swing from the right side. But this year, he's been tougher on righties (.217) ...

* Our old rubber-armed friend, Paul Quantrill, set two records yesterday. He became both the first Yankee to make 80 relief appearances in a season, and the first pitcher in big-league history to top 80 appearances in four consecutive appearances ...

* Against all odds, El Duque is 8-0, and will get the ball on Wednesday ... On Friday night, he gave up a run on three hits in three innings of work before being derailed by a long rain delay ... Not even the wildest-eyed optimist would have predicted when the Yankees activated him in July that Hernandez would post a 2.51 ERA, with better than a strikeout per inning ...

* Poor Jason Giambi, who has been afflicted by everything from tumours to parasites to respiratory ailments to good ol' groin injuries, is now battling yet another problem: a prolonged slump at the plate ... The once-feared slugger has gone 0 for 11 with a walk and six Ks since his return from the DL, and is 0 for his last thirty-two overall ... Tellingly, Torre benched him in favour of Ruben Sierra for both of the last two crucial games against the Red Sox ... Giambi, though, is counting his blessings: "It's good to be back with the guys" ...

* Although the aging Sierra has typically been a stronger hitter from the right side, he's struggled against lefthanded pitching this year (.252/.295/.417) ... Oddly, the pull hitter has been ineffective in the short-down-the-lines confines of Yankee Stadium (.228/.288/.411) ...

* Meanwhile, the new everyday first baseman is old friend John Olerud, who's played about as well as could be expected when the Yankees plucked him off the scrap heap in August. He's hit .298 and posted a .376 OBP as a Yankee ...

* New York will go with a four-man rotation in the first round, with Hernandez-Mussina-Vazquez followed by Kevin Brown, if his hand is well enough, or Jon Lieber if it isn't ... Brown could get the pins removed from his left hand today if his healing is on track. But he definitely won't be ready for next weekend's series at Fenway ...

Probable Batting Orders

vs. LH

6 Jeter
5 Rodriguez
9 Sheffield/Sierra
7 Matsui
8 Williams
DH Giambi
3 Clark
2 Flaherty/Posada
4 Cairo

vs. RH

6 Jeter
5 Rodriguez
9 Sheffield
7 Matsui
8 Williams/Lofton
2 Posada
3 Olerud
DH Sierra/Giambi
4 Cairo


Pitching Probables

Monday: RH Vazquez vs. Chacin
Tuesday: RH L----a vs. Halladay
Wednesday: RH Hernandez vs. Lilly

Bullpen Usage

Long: Sturtze R, Proctor R, Halsey L
Short: Quantrill R, Karsay R, Heredia L, Nitkowski L, Prinz R
Setup: Gordon R
Closer: Rivera R

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