Blue Jays "Ready and Able" Chart

Monday, August 30 2004 @ 03:13 AM EDT

Contributed by: Gerry

The minor league system exists to develop players for the Blue Jays. Placing competitive teams at each level, moving players up the ladder, coaching, drafting: these are all -- at the end of the day -- designed to develop players to play for the Blue Jays or to trade away for someone who can. While Dick Scott and other members of his team focus on development, JP Ricciardi is probably more interested in what players will be ready to play at the major-league level.

I'm not sure if JP has a "Ready and Able" chart, but he probably does, at least in his head. When JP signed Ted Lilly to a two-year deal, most likely he was planning on having someone on the farm take Lilly's spot in 2006. If so, that player would be on JP's "Ready and Able" chart. So if he has such a chart, what names are on it? My "Ready and Able" chart is shown below.

I have defined two time frames for a player's arrival -- at the start of a season, or in the middle of a season. In practical terms, it's difficult to be more specific than that. I'm ignoring injury-related, temporary and September call-ups.

The Blue Jays are almost entirely concerned only with players who "more likely than not" will play in the major leagues. What kind of player does that imply? I define it as "a player who has demonstrated an ability to play at the major-league level." Players at AA or AAA who are performing well would meet this definition. But it would be very difficult for a player at A level to do so -- the competition at A-Ball is just not strong enough to prove major league ability.

Occasionally, a player might so dominate A-Ball that he has "major leaguer written all over him," as they say. However, I don't see any of those players in this year's Blue Jay system. This chart is not a forecast system to say who will be a star or not; it is a chart of players that JP could "pencil in" to his plans for roster construction in the future.

So who makes the list?


Alex Rios		Mid 2004
David Bush		Mid 2004
Gabe Gross		Mid 2004
Vinnie Chulk		Mid 2004
Kevin Frederick		Mid 2004
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Guillermo Quiroz	Start 2005
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Russ Adams		Mid 2005
Adam Peterson		Mid 2005
Brandon League		Mid 2005
Eric Crozier		Mid 2005
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Aaron Hill		Start 2006
Jason Arnold		Start 2006
Jamie Vermilyea		Start 2006
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Dustin McGowan		Mid 2006
Josh Banks		Mid 2006

Just missing the chart are Gustavo Chacin, Francisco Rosario, John-Ford Griffin, John Hattig, Jordan DeJong, Rob Cosby, and the A-Ball guys: Vito, Tablado, Roberts, and Marcum. I don't believe any of those players have demonstrated yet that they "more likely than not" will be major league players.

The list is very symmetrical: I expect five players a year to be major-league ready. Not all of them will be successful. of course, but if just three can make it each year, that will provide JP with a regular pool of talent with which to stack the major-league team.

I imagine there will be some debate over the guys who just missed. Some of the Dunedin crew are not dominating A-Ball (Vito and Roberts are in this category). You could make the argument that Tablado is dominating, but this is his first big year. so that makes me cautious. Marcum does not have explosive "stuff", so that means (for me) that he has to show he can do it at AA. Chacin has been outstanding, but again, this is his breakout season, so it remains to be seen whether his stuff works at higher levels. Rosario has been up and down and is jsut not predictable based on 2004. Griffin and Hattig can hit home runs -- but will do they make enough contact to be successful in The Show?

Fire away!

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