What Can We Expect From a 14th Overall Draft Pick?
Tuesday, August 17 2004 @ 11:18 AM EDT
Contributed by: Pepper Moffatt
In a recent thread a Batter's Box regular made the comment:
of course, we wouldn't even be having this discussion if Russ Adams hadn't turned out to be so terribly, terribly underwhelming, especially relative to his draft position.
Which lead a number of us to wonder how much we should expect from a mid 1st round draft pick. In "Has Russ Adams Been A Disappointment?" Craig Burley compared Adams to other players taken in the middle of the first round of 2002's draft. I thought I'd take a different approach.
I decided to look at how 14th overall draftpicks have performed in the past. I decided to examine 30 14th overall draftpicks from the 1965 to 1994 period. The draft began in 1965 so it was a natural starting point, while 1994 was chosen because it was ten years ago, so we only consider established major leaguers. Plus everyone loves round numbers, so a 30 year period seemed appropriate.
Methodology
I looked at the performance of each player during his first six major league seasons. I defined a player's first season as the season he first recorded a career level of 100 major-league at-bats or 50 major-league innings pitched. This was as not to punish players who were September call-ups. I chose the 6 year cut-off for two reasons:
- Some of the players in the sample are still active so we do not have a complete career record for them.
- More importantly, we care how a draft-pick (say Russ Adams) performs for the Jays. If Adams has six killer seasons then signs a big money contract with the Red Sox, his performance for the Sox doesn't help the Jays any. Since players become major league free agents after 6 full seasons of major league service, this number was a natural.
In order to measure the player's 6 year performance, I chose to look at the WARP3 statistic. WARP or "Wins Above Replacement Player" is defined as "the number of wins this player contributed, above what a replacement level hitter, fielder, and pitcher would have done" (Source: Baseball Prospectus). The 3 just indicates that the stat has been adjusted for league difficulty and for shortened seasons. It's a cumulative counting stat like Runs or RBI, so players who have played more games and seasons should have a higher WARP3.
To get an idea of the WARP3 scale, here are the career marks of some Blue Jays players:
Josh Phelps - 5.4 WARP3 over 2 seasons
Chris Woodward - 7.1 WARP3 over 4 seasons
Dave Berg - 8.0 WARP3 over 6 seasons
Eric Hinske - 8.9 WARP3 over 2 seasons
Vernon Wells - 15.0 WARP3 over 3 seasons
Frank Catalanotto - 16.6 WARP3 over 6 seasons
To aid in the comparison, I created 5 groups to divide the 30 players into:
Group 1 - Never Reached The Majors
Group 2 - Less Than 5.0 WARP3 in first 6 seasons
Group 3 - Between 5.0 and 9.9 WARP3 in first 6 seasons
Group 4 - Between 10.0 and 19.9 WARP3 in first 6 seasons
Group 5 - 20.0 or more WARP3 in first 6 seasons
The Groups
Group 1 - Never Reached The Majors
9 Players of 30 = 30%. Average WARP3 = 0.0Year Player POSN TEAM Games WARP
1966 Rick Konik 1B DET 0 0.0
1967 Phil Meyer P PHI 0 0.0
1970 Charles Maxwell 3B WAS 0 0.0
1974 Ted Shipley SS MIN 0 0.0
1976 Tim Glass C CLE 0 0.0
1979 Joe Lansford 1B SDP 0 0.0
1980 Tim Maki P TEX 0 0.0
1983 Rich Stoll P MON 0 0.0
1986 Greg McMurtry OF BOS 0 0.0
PSN stands for the position the player was drafted at (and not necessarily played in the majors), TEAM was the team that drafted him, GAMES were the number of games he played in the majors up to and including the 2003 season, and WARP is the WARP3 he recorded in the first six seasons of his major league career.
Most of the players in this section were from the early years of the draft. In fact every 14th overall pick from 1987-1998 has made the major leagues.
Group 2 - Cup of Coffee / Journeyman
7 Players of 30 = 23%. Average WARP3 = 1.2Year Player POSN TEAM Games WARP
1971 Rich Puig 2B NYM 4 -0.2
1975 Bo McLaughlin P HOU 156 -0.2
1989 Steve Hosey OF SFG 24 0.1
1968 Rich McKinney SS CWS 341 1.1
1977 Ricky Adams SS HOU 120 1.2
1984 John Marzano C BOS 301 3.3
1981 Jim Winn P PIT 161 3.4
I have a number of rookie cards of Steve Hosey, so I remember him well. The best player on this list is probably long-time Red Sox back-up catcher John Marzano. To put these WARP3 figures in context, Eric Hinske has a 2.5 WARP3 for this season alone.
Group 3 - Decent Major Leaguers
4 Players of 30 = 13%. Average WARP3 = 8.5Year Player POSN TEAM Games WARP
1990 Todd Van Poppel P OAK 325 6.1
1992 Ron Villone P SEA 351 8.6
1965 Alan Gallagher 3B SFG 446 9.4
1987 Cris Carpenter P STL 291 9.8
The first 6 seasons of Todd Van Poppel's career were spent as a very struggling starter and not as a relief pitcher. I've never heard of Alan Gallagher and only vaguely remember Cris Carpenter. Dave Berg who recorded at 8.0 WARP3 in his first 6 seasons would fit right in with this group.
Group 4 - Good Major Leaguers
3 Players of 30 = 10%. Average WARP3 = 13.0Year Player POSN TEAM Games WARP
1985 Tommy Greene P ATL 125 10.0
1991 Cliff Floyd OF MON 1111 10.4
1982 Ron Karkovice C CWS 945 18.6
Tommy Greene had two good seasons, recording a 4.7 WARP3 in 1991 and a 5.2 WARP3 in 1993. Cliff Floyd spent a lot of time on the DL in his first few seasons, hence the low WARP3.
Group 5 - Very Good/Great Major Leaguers
7 Players of 30 = 23%. Average WARP3 = 26.5Year Player POSN TEAM Games WARP
1972 Scott McGregor P NYY 362 22.0
1969 Don Gullett P CIN 286 25.0
1988 Tino Martinez 1B SEA 1748 26.3
1994 Jason Varitek OF SEA 754 26.9
1973 Lee Mazzilli OF NYM 1395 27.1
1993 Derrek Lee 1B SDP 905 28.2
1978 Tom Brunansky P ANA 1816 30.2
Here are the guys we all hope Russ Adams turns into. Note that less than 25% of the players in the sample turned into a very good/great player. Also note that Jason Varitek was drafted as an outfielder and Tom Brunansky was drafted as a pitcher!
Craig Burley wondered if the performance of 14th overall draft-picks have improved over time. To see, I broke the 30 years down into 6 distinct groups:
YEARS GROUP 1 GROUP 2 GROUP 3 GROUP 4 GROUP 5 AVGWARP3
65-69 2 1 1 0 1 7.10
70-74 2 1 0 0 2 9.78
75-79 2 2 0 0 1 6.24
80-84 2 2 0 1 0 5.06
85-89 1 1 1 1 1 9.24
90-94 0 0 2 1 2 16.04
Where GROUP1, GROUP2 etc. indicate the number of players in each group.
It would appear that since 1985 the performance of 14th overall picks has improved. I think the stellar performance of the 1990 to 1994 group will be somewhat of an outlier and is not a general trend. Consider the performance of 14th overall picks in the 1995-1999 period:
Year Player POSN TEAM Games WARP SEASONS
1995 Reggie Taylor OF PHI 289 1.4 2
1996 Dee Brown OF KCR 204 -0.5 4
1997 Brandon Larson SS CIN 91 0.3 1
1998 Jeff Weaver P DET 174 26.0 5
1999 Ty Howington P CIN 0 0.0 0
The 1995-1999 class appears that it will rival the 1975-1979 for futility. SEASONS indicates the number of seasons each player has played, so there is still time for all of these players to add to their WARP3 totals.
Conclusion
The average 14th overall draftpick records a WARP3 level of 8.9 in his first 6 seasons, a level only slightly higher than the performance of Dave Berg in his first six seasons. While many expect that a 14th overall draftpick will become a very good or great major leaguer, only 23% of the players in this sample reached that level. Scouts may be getting better at identifying first round talent but with this sample size, it's hard to tell. To get a better idea, we'll need to examine the performance of other mid 1st round level draftpicks.
14th Overall Draftpicks Since 1965
Year Player POSN TEAM Games WARP
1965 Alan Gallagher 3B SFG 446 9.4
1966 Rick Konik 1B DET 0 0.0
1967 Phil Meyer P PHI 0 0.0
1968 Rich McKinney SS CWS 341 1.1
1969 Don Gullett P CIN 286 25.0
1970 Charles Maxwell 3B WAS 0 0.0
1971 Rich Puig 2B NYM 4 -0.2
1972 Scott McGregor P NYY 362 22.0
1973 Lee Mazzilli OF NYM 1395 27.1
1974 Ted Shipley SS MIN 0 0.0
1975 Bo McLaughlin P HOU 156 -0.2
1976 Tim Glass C CLE 0 0.0
1977 Ricky Adams SS HOU 120 1.2
1978 Tom Brunansky P ANA 1816 30.2
1979 Joe Lansford 1B SDP 0 0.0
1980 Tim Maki P TEX 0 0.0
1981 Jim Winn P PIT 161 3.4
1982 Ron Karkovice C CWS 945 18.6
1983 Rich Stoll P MON 0 0.0
1984 John Marzano C BOS 301 3.3
1985 Tommy Greene P ATL 125 10.0
1986 Greg McMurtry OF BOS 0 0.0
1987 Cris Carpenter P STL 291 9.8
1988 Tino Martinez 1B SEA 1748 26.3
1989 Steve Hosey OF SFG 24 0.1
1990 Todd Van Poppel P OAK 325 6.1
1991 Cliff Floyd OF MON 1111 10.4
1992 Ron Villone P SEA 351 8.6
1993 Derrek Lee 1B SDP 905 28.2
1994 Jason Varitek OF SEA 754 26.9
1995 Reggie Taylor OF PHI 289 1.4
1996 Dee Brown OF KCR 204 -0.5
1997 Brandon Larson SS CIN 91 0.3
1998 Jeff Weaver P DET 174 26.0
1999 Ty Howington P CIN 0 0.0
2000 Beau Hale P BAL 0 0.0
2001 Jake Gautreau IF SDP 0 0.0
2002 Russ Adams SS TOR 0 0.0
2003 Ryan Wagner P CIN 17 0.0
2004 Billy Butler 3B KCR 0 0.0
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